October 28, 2019, 2:55 pm
Editor’s Note: Enjoy this free preview of Nathan’s Weekly Report, which is a detailed dive into the best and worst of the last week of action. Going forward the report will be available to GAMETIME Premium subscribers. You can join the premium club at this link, and get access to live shows, Pickups of the Night, daily previews, and more!
Aaaaaaand we’re back. Week 1 is in the books and there’s already a ton to chew on. For those of you who weren’t with us last year, welcome aboard the Hoob-train.
This weekly report will serve as… a weekly report. I’ll be giving you a quick summary of the weekly leaders in total stats for points, 3s, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. For field goal and free throw percentages, I’ll be displaying their weighted values. This is because a guy going 0-for-3 isn’t nearly as bad as someone hitting 5-for-23. It’s much harder to make up lost ground when a player is inefficient at a high volume so that’s why I’ll be using weighted values for those sections.
This article will be a primer on what went down the past week with analysis and suggestions on how to approach certain players.
You’ll get analysis for both roto and head-to-head formats and I found this weekly rundown an effective method at detailing the intricacies of both formats. For example, Karl-Anthony Towns had a mind-blowing week, but absolutely gutted head-to-head owners in free throw percentage. Those of you in roto leagues don’t care about that, because over the next 79 games he’s going to make up for his awful shooting, but head-to-head owners may have lost that category based on KAT alone.
By reading this, you’re already going to be ahead of the curve. Most people will just read the default analysis on whatever fantasy app they’re using, which is fine if you’re not in it to win it. We’re a little more serious about bringing in the money here though.
As always, if you have any questions you can reach me @HB_nate on twitter and now that I’ve ran through all of the introductory week 1 red tape, here are your top-20 players of Week 1:
Top 20 Players for Week 1 (Oct 22nd – Oct 27th)
Rank Value Name Games 1 1.408 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 2 1.284 Kyrie Irving 3 3 1.095 Trae Young 2 4 0.986 Malcolm Brogdon 2 5 0.958 Deandre Ayton 1 6 0.824 Luka Doncic 3 7 0.822 Damian Lillard 3 8 0.794 Russell Westbrook 2 9 0.781 Brandon Ingram 3 10 0.749 Kelly Oubre Jr. 3 11 0.723 Tristan Thompson 2 12 0.72 Dejounte Murray 2 13 0.715 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2 14 0.698 Cody Zeller 2 15 0.698 Donovan Mitchell 3 16 0.684 Anthony Davis 3 17 0.662 Andre Drummond 3 18 0.606 Tobias Harris 2 19 0.598 Kevin Love 2 20 0.593 Kawhi Leonard 3
The No. 1 fantasy player throughout week 1 is Karl-Anthony Towns and the margin was pretty substantial, which is impressive considering how great Kyrie Irving was as well. Towns’ fantasy stats are mind-splitting and if you’ve watched him play this week, you’d know it’s going to be the norm.
He has an iron man reputation, missing only five games in his five year career due to a nearly fatal car crash and has been unfairly labeled as “soft” because of the Jimmy Butler mess and toxic social media culture. Watch a couple Wolves games and you’ll see how ridiculous that label is. Through three games he’s averaging 32.0 points, 13.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.0 steals, 2.0 blocks and 5.0 3s on .517 shooting.
Trae Young and Luka Doncic highlight the incoming new kids on the block who are going to run the fantasy world for the next half decade. Both of these players are absolute studs. Doncic is a nightly triple-double threat who now has an ideal pick-and-roll mate in Kristaps Porzingis (who was ranked 25th this week) and Young has been a fireball in his first two games. If Doncic’s free throw shooting improvements are real (.792 on 8.0 FTA vs. .713 on 6.7 FTA last year), then top-20 upside is easily attainable. Young’s insane passing abilities give him an early-round floor and if the shot is going to fall at an even league average rate, there’s sustainable first-round value.
Rank Name Games Points 1 Kyrie Irving 3 113 2 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 96 3 Damian Lillard 3 95 4 Luka Doncic 3 88 5 Pascal Siakam 3 86 6 Brandon Ingram 3 82 7 Kristaps Porzingis 3 79 8 Kawhi Leonard 3 78 9 Trae Young 2 77 10 Derrick Rose 3 76
Kyrie Irving is still getting buckets and he’s deeeeep in his bag this season. Ignore all of the noise around the losses, they could have easily been 3-0 if a couple things tipped their way. The only thing we worry about with Irving is his health, the situation looks great so far. Same goes for Kristaps Porzingis, who is looking like a steal at his current ADP (31).
Pascal Siakam is making the leap, again and it’s not that surprising which speaks volumes to his talent and hard work. Another guy who’s been making strong improvements in his play is Brandon Ingram. He’s always been inconsistent and has gone on hot streaks before, but this one looks a bit different than the others. No, he won’t continue to average 27 points on .524 shooting, especially since he’s hitting 3.3 3s a game at a .526 rate. The regression has to come, but Ingram is looking like an improved player and is going to ride with some value until Zion Williamson gets back.
Rank Name Games 3s 1 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 15 2 Kyrie Irving 3 14 3 Devonte’ Graham 3 13 4 Kyle Lowry 3 12 5 Trae Young 2 11 6 Buddy Hield 3 11 7 Brandon Ingram 3 10 8 Kemba Walker 3 10 9 Jayson Tatum 3 10 10 Luke Kennard 3 10
Jayson Tatum has everything set up for him to have a big bounce back year. He’s cutting down the long 2s and attempting more 3s. The 3-point accuracy is insanely high at .455, but he hit .434 from deep his rookie year. His 2-point percentage is awful at .282, which means he’ll have some positive regression there as well. He’s just got to keep his feet on the ground to hit top-40 production.
One of the most commonly used words in these articles will be regression, because guys like Devonte’ Graham and Luke Kennard are not the new splash bros and already hit some regression after their monster games. Both players are still worth a flier in standard leagues, but just temper your expectations.
Rank Name Games Rebounds 1 Andre Drummond 3 47 2 Hassan Whiteside 3 42 3 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 40 4 Lauri Markkanen 3 35 5 Bam Adebayo 3 33 6 Jarrett Allen 3 33 7 Pascal Siakam 3 32 8 Julius Randle 3 32 9 Luka Doncic 3 31 10 Anthony Davis 3 31 10 Kevin Love 2 31
Familiar faces on this list. Jarrett Allen still giving the fantasy goodies even though the Nets have made it much more difficult with the signing of DeAndre Jordan. Allen is the guy to own here, but he’s not going to crack 30 minutes consistently which caps the upside.
Andre Drummond has added a dribble package to his game and it’s a thing of beauty. He’s going to get a fat contract this summer.
If you were with us during the offseason, you’d know how much we loved Hassan Whiteside at the discount he was going for on draft day. He didn’t necessarily need more minutes, he just needed a consistent role and a fresh start. Coach Stotts seems pleased with him so far and now we’re hoping the knee issues don’t flare up again.
Bam Adebayo – Hoop Ball favorite.
Is fat Kevin Love back? You would think so with how he’s rebounding in his first two games.
Rank Name Games Assists 1 LeBron James 3 30 2 Devin Booker 3 25 3 Kawhi Leonard 3 24 4 Bradley Beal 3 23 5 Luka Doncic 3 22 6 Kyle Lowry 3 21 7 Malcolm Brogdon 2 21 8 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2 20 9 Justise Winslow 3 20 10 Russell Westbrook 2 20 10 Lonzo Ball 3 20 10 Ricky Rubio 2 20 10 Terry Rozier 3 20
The Suns look… good? Ricky Rubio and Devin Booker are making a great pairing, but Rubio is already dealing with a minor knee injury. So far it looks like both players can co-exist and drop enough dimes to satisfy owners though.
Justise Winslow should see some slight dips with the return of Jimmy Butler and LeBron James leading the league in assists in his 17th season is something we didn’t predict, but none of us would be surprised if he did.
Terry Rozier’s time in Charlotte hasn’t started off like anyone would have thought which is actually a good thing, unless you really needed his points.
Russell Westbrook is averaging a triple-double with .762 foul shooting on 10 attempts. Small sample size and we expect regression, but maybe Houston’s spacing has opened up new doors for the Brodie to become more efficient. His free throw shooting regression has been one of the more bizarre developments in recent memory and he still has his explosiveness. If he can just hover around the .750 mark, there’s top-12 upside for a guy you most likely got in the second round.
Lonzo Ball was benched during the end stretch of the Pelicans’ first game against the Raptors, but Jrue Holiday is nursing a knee injury and Ball has logged over 30 minutes in each game since. The shooting is still going to be a headache, but his stat set has potential, especially for those of you in head-to-head leagues. Roto owners are going to have more trouble dealing with the inefficiencies.
Rank Name Games Steals 1 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 9 2 Elfrid Payton 3 9 3 Jayson Tatum 3 9 4 R.J. Barrett 3 8 5 Kris Dunn 3 8 6 Luka Doncic 3 7 7 Ben Simmons 2 7 8 Patrick Beverley 3 7 9 Andre Drummond 3 7 10 Moe Harkless 3 7
R.J. Barrett is getting as much playing time as he can handle which has been a blessing for fantasy owners. He had a six-steal game against the Nets and has a real crack at Rookie of the Year with Zion Williamson missing so much time. The Knicks aren’t going to win many games, but Barrett is going to get his, as long as coach Fizdale doesn’t pull any of his usual antics.
It was a good week for the Clippers role players defensively, but in fantasy land they’re fringe guys. The long term value is even lower with the looming return of Paul George (shoulder).
Rank Name Games Blocks 1 Anthony Davis 4 10 2 Kristaps Porzingis 4 8 3 Andre Drummond 4 7 4 Dwight Howard 4 7 5 O.G. Anunoby 4 7 6 Karl-Anthony Towns 4 6 7 Jonathan Isaac 4 6 8 Serge Ibaka 5 6 9 Brook Lopez 5 6 10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3 5
Anthony Davis will contend for DPOY and MVP because he’s still insanely good and the Lakers + LeBron media hype train will do him some favors as well. Dwight Howard is actually gaining a lot of ground on JaVale McGee’s starting job and is worth a flier for blocks. Jonathan Isaac can’t buy a bucket still, but as long as he gets his stocks, we’re fine.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks incredible. He’s going to be on a lot of people’s ballot for Most Improved Player if he keeps up this pace, which is entirely sustainable. SGA’s scoring production is something that hasn’t caught us off guard because he displayed flashes of this throughout his rookie season and did it throughout college as well. His timing and footwork combined with his length are a nightmare to deal with for opposing guards. The assist numbers are a bit low, but the Thunder are relying on SGA to be their No. 1 scorer and he hasn’t sacrificed any efficiency doing so.
Rank Name Games FG% Value FG% FGA 1 Montrezl Harrell 3 3.029874 0.800 30 2 Tristan Thompson 2 2.91173 0.704 27 3 Derrick Rose 3 2.61102 0.646 48 4 Trae Young 2 2.526157 0.587 46 5 Solomon Hill 1 2.419894 1.000 5 6 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2 2.401593 0.605 38 7 Deandre Ayton 1 2.245888 0.643 14 8 Mitchell Robinson 2 2.208327 0.909 11 9 Hassan Whiteside 3 2.179326 0.810 21 10 Andre Drummond 3 1.922278 0.625 40
Derrick Rose is here to stay. He’s revamped his game, overcame gruesome injuries and is now an efficient scorer. We waited for the dip in shooting last season and it never really came. He should get even more opportunities with Reggie Jackson (back) dealing with an injury.
Montrezl Harrell fell a bit far because of the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, but he’s a workhorse who feasts in only 20-25 minutes a night. The tandem of he and Lou Williams is as lethal as it was last season so enjoy the ride if you scooped him late.
Rank Name Games FG% Value FG% FGA 1 James Harden 2 -4.35024 0.238 42 2 Bradley Beal 3 -3.4997 0.306 72 3 Eric Gordon 2 -2.68885 0.281 32 4 Mike Conley 3 -2.64123 0.237 38 5 Jayson Tatum 3 -2.25106 0.344 61 6 Terrence Ross 2 -2.17871 0.238 21 7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3 -2.03981 0.174 23 8 Jrue Holiday 2 -1.87372 0.308 26 9 Khris Middleton 2 -1.7803 0.344 32 10 Marc Gasol 3 -1.77848 0.158 19
This will be the worst stretch of shooting for James Harden this season. Don’t expect the Beard to be on here much.
Mike Conley is absolutely due for some positive regression so send some buy-low offers while you can. Same story with Jayson Tatum.
Marc Gasol looks a bit slow out there at 35 years old, but he’s logging 27 minutes and is shooting .158 from the floor. No way that holds.
Rank Name Games FT% Value FT% FTA 1 James Harden 2 4.066323 0.962 26 2 Kyrie Irving 3 2.497675 0.931 29 3 Kelly Oubre Jr. 3 2.417223 1.000 19 4 Stephen Curry 2 2.290122 1.000 12 5 Josh Richardson 2 2.09947 1.000 11 6 Pascal Siakam 3 2.076146 0.952 21 7 Danilo Gallinari 3 2.03592 1.000 16 8 Will Barton 2 1.778507 0.929 14 9 Damian Lillard 3 1.648194 0.889 27 10 Malcolm Brogdon 2 1.587855 0.923 13
Kelly Oubre Jr. is an underrated player in terms of drawing fouls. His ability to get to the line gives him a high floor to work with and the Suns are letting him loose.
You’re going to see a ton of James Harden, Damian Lillard and Danilo Gallinari on here. They’re elite at drawing fouls and if Pascal Siakam can join the club, he’s looking at a top-20 finish as well.
Rank Name Games FT% Value FT% FTA 1 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2 -4.22093 0.550 20 2 Joel Embiid 1 -4.09062 0.500 8 3 Ben Simmons 2 -3.9603 0.417 12 4 R.J. Barrett 3 -2.98051 0.429 14 5 Andre Drummond 3 -2.64586 0.615 26 6 Karl-Anthony Towns 3 -2.51876 0.630 27 7 Montrezl Harrell 3 -2.30478 0.625 24 8 Marvin Bagley III 1 -2.04416 0.500 4 9 Solomon Hill 1 -2.04416 0.500 4 10 Justise Winslow 3 -2.00393 0.588 17
The only thing unusual here is Karl-Anthony Towns, who is a career .832 shooter at the line. He went 7-for-13 at the line against Charlotte and 3-for-6 against the Heat. I’m going to bet on the other 324 games of his career as an indicator on how well he shoots free throws.
R.J. Barrett was a .665 free throw shooter in college so this isn’t too surprising as that stat translates very well to the next level of play. If he’s going to drag your free throws down like this it’ll be tough to have him on your roto leagues, but the weekly variance is easier to deal with in head-to-head formats.
That’s a wrap, good luck to you all this week, unless you’re playing against me of course.