• Ah, numbers.  Those pesky integers that cause old schoolers to yell “NERDS” and for nerds to look down at old schoolers.

    Fortunately, most of us fall in-between this made for Twitter argument about the eye test versus the spreadsheet.

    But numbers do matter in fantasy leagues because duh.  So understanding numbers is key to your success, and luckily it’s easier now than ever to get to the bottom of the numbers even if you’re not a numbers person.

    Basketball Monster is our favorite place to do exactly that (hey Ken, free advertising!).  They take the concepts of standard deviations and how a player’s production across eight or nine (or however many) categories relates to their overall value.  In essence, somebody that theoretically scores 100 points per game but is league-worst in the other categories just isn’t good in standard fantasy leagues.

    Their website calculates all of that on the spot and spits out a value.  There are a few different ways one can evaluate that data, but the numbers are solid.  And what they do is give us a context to talk about these players amidst all these different formats and here at Hoop Ball it allows us to be the best at what we do.  We’re going to evaluate the stocks down to the penny and give you a professional analysis of what is happening.

    Okay, to the terminology.

    Top-150 player: A player performing in the top-150 (I know, we’re flying here)

    Early-round player: Somebody performing in the top-50 give or take

    Mid-round player: Top 50-100

    Late-round player: Top 100-150

    8- and 9-cat value, respectively: We’re giving you values for both of the two main formats

    Must-add player: A player that you need to drop your worst player for.  They need to be projected at a top-75 level for this recommendation to be made.

    Must-own player: Somebody in the expressed league size should own the player.

    Buy low: Reserved for players that have a strong probability of improving. Sell high is the obvious opposite of that.

    Stop what you’re doing and run to the wire: Stop what you’re doing, really.

    Low-level pickup: Corresponds to late-round value for the most part.

    Mid-level pickup: Has a good chance to be a top-100 player. Upside can push a player with a late-round expectation into being a mid-level pickup.

    High-level pickup: A shade below being a must-add player, because if they’re a must-add player we’re just going to say so.  Think top 75-100 value.

    Worth a look: Probably in the top 125-150 or even 175 range for a 12-team league.

    Worth a flier: Something like less than 25 percent chance of hitting at a level that justifies the pickup.

    Lottery ticket: A 5-10 percent chance of working out.

     

     

Fantasy News

  • Davis Bertans - F - San Antonio Spurs

    Davis Bertans (concussion protocol) has been ruled out for Monday's game.

    Bertans was expected to miss this game after missing Sunday's game. There's currently no timetable for him. His absence opens up minutes for Dante Cunningham, who will continue to start. Jakob Poeltl will get more minutes of the bench as he tries to turn around the disastrous start he's had to his San Antonio career.

    Source: Tom Orsborn on Twitter

  • Pau Gasol - C/F - San Antonio Spurs

    Pau Gasol (foot) is out for Monday's contest.

    Gasol was expected to miss all of San Antonio's roadtrip and we have not gotten word on his timetable. Dante Cunningham will continue to start, while Jakob Poeltl will get extra looks off the bench. With Rudy Gay (rest) questionable, the Spurs frontcourt could be in for some heavy lifting against Anthony Davis and co.

    Source: Tom Orsborn on Twitter

  • Rudy Gay - F - San Antonio Spurs

    Rudy Gay (rest) is questionable for Monday's game vs. New Orleans.

    Gay is a must-own player right now. He's been providing consistent mid-late round value when on the court, but knowing Gregg Popovich, he will get a few games off for rest. Check his status closer to game-time.

    Source: Tom Orsborn on Twitter

  • Kris Dunn - G - Chicago Bulls

    According to coach Fred Hoiberg, Kris Dunn (sprained MCL) has started doing straight-ahead running and there's no change in his timetable.

    The original timetable was 4-to-6 weeks and today marks the fourth week since Dunn suffered the injury. The Bulls are not rushing any of their young players back from injury, so do not expect Dunn to return soon – he's still probably a few weeks away. Over the past two weeks, Shaq Harrison has played 20.0 minutes per game off the bench and has cracked the top-120 per game value, while Ryan Arcidiacano has been starting but is barely in the top-200. Those two are the only ones worth a look while Dunn is out.

    Source: Darnell Mayberry on Twitter

  • Dwyane Wade - G - Miami Heat

    Dwyane Wade will return "soon" according to coach Erik Spoelstra.

    Wade has been away after the birth of his daughter for just over a week, which was how long he was expected to miss. He is putting his family first during his last season in the association and no one can blame him for that. Once he returns, he will probably sap minutes from all the wing players, but Wayne Ellington is a candidate to lose the most.

    Source: David Furones on Twitter

  • Goran Dragic - G - Miami Heat

    Goran Dragic (right knee injury) had his knee drained Monday morning and the hope is for him to return next week.

    The Heat realized the injury needed to be taken care of for Dragic to fully heal. It was just fluid that was drained and they are hoping the inflammation dies down by next week. You can comfortably rule him out for three games before checking back on his status. Tyler Johnson is worth picking up as a streamer for the week while Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow should continue to see ball-handling duties as well.

    Source: Miami Heat on Twitter

  • Joakim Noah - C - Memphis Grizzlies

    According to Marc Stein, the Grizzlies have been in "extensive discussions" with free agent center Joakim Noah.

    After Tom Thibodeau had no interest in bringing in Noah, it was probably a sign that he was done, but it appears he may get another opportunity to prove himself. Noah was working on his jumpshot over the summer in an effort to adapt to the modern game. Noah has a lot of tred on the tires and would not be fantasy relevant on the Grizzlies, barring a Derrick Rose-esque comeback.

    Source: Marc Stein on Twitter

  • Dwight Howard - C - Washington Wizards

    Dwight Howard (aggravated gluteal soreness) missed practice on Monday.

    Howard's preseason injury that stretch into the regular season was a piriformis strain, which is a muscle in the rear. He apparently had trouble sitting down to put his socks on before Sunday's game and ended up leaving without returning. If he misses time, Ian Mahinmi likely starts at center. Jeff Green and Kelly Oubre would be the ones with increased fantasy value.

    Source: Washington Wizards on Twitter

  • Lauri Markkanen - F - Chicago Bulls

    Lauri Markkanen (elbow) will participate in non-contact portions of practice, according to coach Fred Hoiberg.

    Markkanen is slightly behind his original timetable, but the Bulls are rightfully being cautious with him. The reports from late last week were another week-or-two away from contact drills, then one week after that before returning to game action. If Markkanen is out there somehow he should be stashed at this point. He was a top-70 player in 9-cat as a rookie, but with Wendell Carter, Jabari Parker and healthy Zach LaVine, top-100 value going forward is a more reasonable projection.

    Source: K.C. Johnson on Twitter

  • OG Anunoby - F - Toronto Raptors

    OG Anunoby (sprained wrist) is expected to play on Tuesday against Orlando.

    Anunoby missed Saturday's game, which a back-to-back, but that was all he was expected to miss. Expect him back Tuesday, which could steal a few minutes from Pascal Siakam. Anunoby is just a deep league option right now.

    Source: Ryan Wolstat