September 8, 2016, 10:31 pm
Ah, numbers. Those pesky integers that cause old schoolers to yell “NERDS” and for nerds to look down at old schoolers.
Fortunately, most of us fall in-between this made for Twitter argument about the eye test versus the spreadsheet.
But numbers do matter in fantasy leagues because duh. So understanding numbers is key to your success, and luckily it’s easier now than ever to get to the bottom of the numbers even if you’re not a numbers person.
Basketball Monster is our favorite place to do exactly that (hey Ken, free advertising!). They take the concepts of standard deviations and how a player’s production across eight or nine (or however many) categories relates to their overall value. In essence, somebody that theoretically scores 100 points per game but is league-worst in the other categories just isn’t good in standard fantasy leagues.
Their website calculates all of that on the spot and spits out a value. There are a few different ways one can evaluate that data, but the numbers are solid. And what they do is give us a context to talk about these players amidst all these different formats and here at Hoop Ball it allows us to be the best at what we do. We’re going to evaluate the stocks down to the penny and give you a professional analysis of what is happening.
Okay, to the terminology.
Top-150 player: A player performing in the top-150 (I know, we’re flying here)
Early-round player: Somebody performing in the top-50 give or take
Mid-round player: Top 50-100
Late-round player: Top 100-150
8- and 9-cat value, respectively: We’re giving you values for both of the two main formats
Must-add player: A player that you need to drop your worst player for. They need to be projected at a top-75 level for this recommendation to be made.
Must-own player: Somebody in the expressed league size should own the player.
Buy low: Reserved for players that have a strong probability of improving. Sell high is the obvious opposite of that.
Stop what you’re doing and run to the wire: Stop what you’re doing, really.
Low-level pickup: Corresponds to late-round value for the most part.
Mid-level pickup: Has a good chance to be a top-100 player. Upside can push a player with a late-round expectation into being a mid-level pickup.
High-level pickup: A shade below being a must-add player, because if they’re a must-add player we’re just going to say so. Think top 75-100 value.
Worth a look: Probably in the top 125-150 or even 175 range for a 12-team league.
Worth a flier: Something like less than 25 percent chance of hitting at a level that justifies the pickup.
Lottery ticket: A 5-10 percent chance of working out.
March 18, 2019, 12:38 amLou Williams - G - Los Angeles Clippers
Lou Williams scored 25 points and hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer in a 119-116 win over the Nets on Sunday.
He added six rebounds, two assists and two triples to the box score while shooting 8-of-16 from the field. Williams has turned it on in the second half of the season and has seemingly locked in the Sixth Man of the Year award. He should return top-100 value for the remainder of the season.
March 18, 2019, 12:35 amDanilo Gallinari - F - Los Angeles Clippers
Danilo Gallinari put up 20 points with 11 rebounds and five assists on 7-of-17 shooting in 31 minutes in a win over the Nets on Sunday.
Gallinari continues to be a top-30 value this season and has actually managed to have a healthy season. Montrezl Harrell also had a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double with three blocks on 8-of-17 shooting. These guys are two of the main reasons that the Clippers hold a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
March 18, 2019, 12:30 amShai Gilgeous-Alexander - G - Los Angeles Clippers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put up 14 points with 10 assists on 5-of-12 shooting in a win over the Nets on Sunday.
He made three triples and added two rebounds to the stat sheet. He is a solid two-way player and can be labeled as an assists and steals specialist in most formats. He should provide late-round value for the remainder of the season and is worth owning in standard formats.
March 18, 2019, 12:22 amD'Angelo Russell - G - Brooklyn Nets
D'Angelo Russell put up 32 points on 13-of-25 shooting with five rebounds, 10 assists and six 3-pointers against the Clippers on Sunday.
The Nets went on a 10-0 run with 1:02 left in the fourth quarter to tie the game. They did all of that just for Lou Wiliams to hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. Russell continues to be the best player on the Nets and boasts top-60 value on the season. The Nets will need him to stay on top of his game if they want to make it into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
March 18, 2019, 12:16 amDeMarre Carroll - F - Brooklyn Nets
DeMarre Carroll played well on Sunday in a loss to the Clippers as he had 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting with seven rebounds.
He made all five of his attempts from the stripe and went 3-of-6 from deep. Carroll has been a deep-league shooting specialist this season and remains in that conversation as long as he remains on the Nets bench.
March 18, 2019, 12:11 amSpencer Dinwiddie - G - Brooklyn Nets
Spencer Dinwiddie shot just 2-of-16 from the field on his way to 13 points in a loss to the Clippers on Sunday.
He shot 8-of-12 from the line and added four rebounds, three assists and one block to the box score. He has been playing well as of late, so he gets some slack for the bad performance. Expect him to bounce back with a better, more efficient performance next time out there.
March 18, 2019, 12:07 amRodions Kurucs - F - Brooklyn Nets
Rodions Kurucs got in foul trouble on Sunday as he fouled out in just 13 minutes, but he was able to get two steals and three blocks before exiting the game.
He scored five points with two rebounds on 2-of-3 shooting as well. He definitely has an Andre Kirilenko type skill set and has the potential to end up as a dominant defensive player. He has put up top-70 value over the past two weeks and is worth owning in standard leagues for the remainder of the season for his shooting and defensive abilities. He should be able to provide late-round value at the very least.
March 18, 2019, 12:00 amChris Paul - G - Houston Rockets
Chris Paul went off on Sunday with 25 points, seven rebounds, 10 assists and six triples in a 117-102 win over the Wolves.
He shot 8-of-12 from the field, made all three of his attempts from the stripe and added a steal to the box score. James Harden put up 20 points and 10 assists on 8-of-24 shooting. This is definitely one of the most reliable backcourts to own in fantasy along with the Warriors duo.
March 17, 2019, 11:54 pmClint Capela - C - Houston Rockets
Clint Capela dominated against the Wolves on Sunday in a 117-102 victory with 20 points and 13 rebounds on 8-of-11 shooting.
Although his value is just top-50 over the past month, he is still a borderline top-20 value in 9-cat leagues for the season and is a very reliable center option. He does not have much competition for big man minutes, so he is forced to play minutes in the upper-30's when it is a close game against a solid big man. Expect a strong finish to the season for Capela.
March 17, 2019, 11:48 pmDanuel House Jr. - F - Houston Rockets
Danuel House Jr. had another solid game on Sunday against the Wolves as he had 14 points on 5-of-6 shooting with seven rebounds.
He added two triples and two assists to the box score and has proven to be a solid bench piece for the Rockets when he is active. In the past two games, he has put up top-100 value and could be a nice speculative add while he is on the Rockets roster and not in the G-League.