September 8, 2016, 10:31 pm
Ah, numbers. Those pesky integers that cause old schoolers to yell “NERDS” and for nerds to look down at old schoolers.
Fortunately, most of us fall in-between this made for Twitter argument about the eye test versus the spreadsheet.
But numbers do matter in fantasy leagues because duh. So understanding numbers is key to your success, and luckily it’s easier now than ever to get to the bottom of the numbers even if you’re not a numbers person.
Basketball Monster is our favorite place to do exactly that (hey Ken, free advertising!). They take the concepts of standard deviations and how a player’s production across eight or nine (or however many) categories relates to their overall value. In essence, somebody that theoretically scores 100 points per game but is league-worst in the other categories just isn’t good in standard fantasy leagues.
Their website calculates all of that on the spot and spits out a value. There are a few different ways one can evaluate that data, but the numbers are solid. And what they do is give us a context to talk about these players amidst all these different formats and here at Hoop Ball it allows us to be the best at what we do. We’re going to evaluate the stocks down to the penny and give you a professional analysis of what is happening.
Okay, to the terminology.
Top-150 player: A player performing in the top-150 (I know, we’re flying here)
Early-round player: Somebody performing in the top-50 give or take
Mid-round player: Top 50-100
Late-round player: Top 100-150
8- and 9-cat value, respectively: We’re giving you values for both of the two main formats
Must-add player: A player that you need to drop your worst player for. They need to be projected at a top-75 level for this recommendation to be made.
Must-own player: Somebody in the expressed league size should own the player.
Buy low: Reserved for players that have a strong probability of improving. Sell high is the obvious opposite of that.
Stop what you’re doing and run to the wire: Stop what you’re doing, really.
Low-level pickup: Corresponds to late-round value for the most part.
Mid-level pickup: Has a good chance to be a top-100 player. Upside can push a player with a late-round expectation into being a mid-level pickup.
High-level pickup: A shade below being a must-add player, because if they’re a must-add player we’re just going to say so. Think top 75-100 value.
Worth a look: Probably in the top 125-150 or even 175 range for a 12-team league.
Worth a flier: Something like less than 25 percent chance of hitting at a level that justifies the pickup.
Lottery ticket: A 5-10 percent chance of working out.
January 16, 2019, 10:15 pmTyus Jones - G - Minnesota Timberwolves
As per Adrian Wojnarowski, Tyus Jones will be wearing a walking boot for the next several days and will be day-to-day after that.
Jones has been a good steals specialist for streaming purposes but with Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague now both healthy, there's little need to hang onto him considering he's set to miss multiple games.
Source: Adrian Wojnarowski on Twitter
January 16, 2019, 9:59 pmReggie Bullock - F - Detroit Pistons
Reggie Bullock handed out a team-high six assists in Wednesday's 120-115 OT win over the Magic and also added 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting and three triples.
Bullock has emerged as a capable passer as of late, averaging 3.6 assists per game over his last five, while also knocking down 3.0 treys per contest, making him a worthwhile hold in standard leagues right now. Reggie Jackson only managed four assists with 13 points (5-of-12 shooting) with two rebounds and two tirples.
January 16, 2019, 9:56 pmTerrence Ross - G/F - Orlando Magic
Terrence Ross played well on Wednesday as he dropped 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting with six 3-pointers in a loss to the Pistons.
He did not add much else to the box score aside from two defensive stats, two rebounds and one assist. He has been a solid late-round value in standard leagues and is a good scoring and 3-point specialist. As long as he remains the sixth man for the Magic and doesn't get traded he should have top-120 appeal for the remainder of the season.
January 16, 2019, 9:49 pmNikola Vucevic - C - Orlando Magic
Nikola Vucevic managed to score 24 points on 11-of-22 shooting to go along with 13 rebounds and three assists in a loss to the Pistons in overtime on Wednesday.
He added two 3-pointers and one steal to the box score. He is still a top-15 value on the season, but lately his value has been trending towards top-20/25. Regardless, Vucevic is outplaying expectations and is having a career year for the Magic.
January 16, 2019, 9:48 pmAndre Drummond - C - Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond dominated on the glass on Wednesday, securing a game-high 22 rebounds while scoring 14 points on 7-of-15 shooting with one assist and one block.
Drum didn't head to the free throw line tonight, which ends up a good thing because he was unable to drag down shooting percentages in that area. He failed to record a steal tonight, which was unfortunate considering he swiped the ball three times in each of his last couple of games. Those numbers should re-emerge soon enough with him averaging 1.6 steals per game this season.
January 16, 2019, 9:44 pmEvan Fournier - G/F - Orlando Magic
Evan Fournier dropped 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting in a team-high 40 minutes in an overtime loss to the Pistons on Wednesday.
Fournier has not been as productive as fantasy owners hoped that he would be this season as he has become a scoring and 3-point specialist in deep leagues. His shooting numbers are down from previous seasons as he is currently at 43% on the season and he does not add much else to the box score other than points. His backcourt mate DJ Augustin put up 13 points with seven assists in 32 minutes. Augustin has actually been a higher value on the season, but both players are late-round guys in 12-team or higher leagues.
January 16, 2019, 9:43 pmBlake Griffin - F - Detroit Pistons
Blake Griffin willed the Pistons to a win over the Magic on Wednesday, dropping a game-high 30 points (11-of-18 shooting) with four boards, five dimes, a triple and two blocks.
Griffin scored his team's last seven points, making sure that they sealed the deal in only one extra period. He's been playing at a high level all season and aside from expected maintenance days off for rest, Griffin has been a reliable mid-round value guy.
January 16, 2019, 9:38 pmAaron Gordon - F - Orlando Magic
Aaron Gordon fouled out in 37 minutes of action after putting up 12 points on 5-of-11 shooting with eight rebounds in an overtime loss to the Pistons on Wednesday.
Gordon has been red-hot as of late and this game was definitely a sign that he is cooling down. He is boasting middle-round value on the season as he currently sits inside the top-90 in 9-cat value. He has top-50 potential, but he has been unable to consistently produce at a high level this season. Roll with Gordon and live with the ups and the downs that come with his game.
January 16, 2019, 9:24 pmMaurice Harkless - F - Trail Blazers
Moe Harkless is out again for the Blazers on Wednesday with a sore left knee.
Harkless can be dropped now in 16-team leagues or shallower. His upside is not worth his missed games at this point.
Source: Joe Freeman on Twitter
January 16, 2019, 9:19 pmDamian Lillard - G - Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard is available for the Blazers in their game vs. the Cavs on Wednesday.
Looks like Lillard's right hand strain is not going keep out of tonight's game. He might not need too much time to put up a big line, considering the Blazers should likely blowout the Cavs in this one.
Source: Mike Richman on Twitter