September 8, 2016, 10:31 pm
Ah, numbers. Those pesky integers that cause old schoolers to yell “NERDS” and for nerds to look down at old schoolers.
Fortunately, most of us fall in-between this made for Twitter argument about the eye test versus the spreadsheet.
But numbers do matter in fantasy leagues because duh. So understanding numbers is key to your success, and luckily it’s easier now than ever to get to the bottom of the numbers even if you’re not a numbers person.
Basketball Monster is our favorite place to do exactly that (hey Ken, free advertising!). They take the concepts of standard deviations and how a player’s production across eight or nine (or however many) categories relates to their overall value. In essence, somebody that theoretically scores 100 points per game but is league-worst in the other categories just isn’t good in standard fantasy leagues.
Their website calculates all of that on the spot and spits out a value. There are a few different ways one can evaluate that data, but the numbers are solid. And what they do is give us a context to talk about these players amidst all these different formats and here at Hoop Ball it allows us to be the best at what we do. We’re going to evaluate the stocks down to the penny and give you a professional analysis of what is happening.
Okay, to the terminology.
Top-150 player: A player performing in the top-150 (I know, we’re flying here)
Early-round player: Somebody performing in the top-50 give or take
Mid-round player: Top 50-100
Late-round player: Top 100-150
8- and 9-cat value, respectively: We’re giving you values for both of the two main formats
Must-add player: A player that you need to drop your worst player for. They need to be projected at a top-75 level for this recommendation to be made.
Must-own player: Somebody in the expressed league size should own the player.
Buy low: Reserved for players that have a strong probability of improving. Sell high is the obvious opposite of that.
Stop what you’re doing and run to the wire: Stop what you’re doing, really.
Low-level pickup: Corresponds to late-round value for the most part.
Mid-level pickup: Has a good chance to be a top-100 player. Upside can push a player with a late-round expectation into being a mid-level pickup.
High-level pickup: A shade below being a must-add player, because if they’re a must-add player we’re just going to say so. Think top 75-100 value.
Worth a look: Probably in the top 125-150 or even 175 range for a 12-team league.
Worth a flier: Something like less than 25 percent chance of hitting at a level that justifies the pickup.
Lottery ticket: A 5-10 percent chance of working out.
January 21, 2020, 4:45 pmNerlens NoelC, Oklahoma City Thunder
Nerlens Noel (sore left ankle) is being listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against the Magic after not participating in practice on Tuesday.
Noel returned for the team's back-to-back set over the weekend but was scratched a few minutes before Monday's tip-off. Steven Adams (ankle) is also questionable for this one, and if neither can go, Mike Muscala and Justin Patton would be looking at extended minutes.
Source: Steve McGehee on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 4:40 pmSteven AdamsC, Oklahoma City Thunder
Steven Adams (left ankle sprain) is being listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against the Magic after not practicing on Tuesday.
Adams had to leave Monday's game early and did not return. In addition to Adams, Nerlens Noel (ankle) is also questionable for this game. Mike Muscala and Justin Patton would be force-fed minutes if both Adams and Noel can't go.
Source: Steve McGehee on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 3:08 pmJabari ParkerPF, Atlanta Hawks
Jabari Parker (shoulder) has been cleared to progress to the next step in his rehabilitation process, but will not be re-evaluated for another two weeks.
Parker is progressing in his rehab, but he still has a ways to go before returning to game action. Parker had value earlier in the year when John Collins was suspended but doesn't hold much while the team is healthy. He should be on the waiver wire in all formats.
Source: Marc J. Spears on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 2:39 pmJaylen BrownSG, Boston Celtics
Jaylen Brown (right ankle sprain) is being listed as questionable to play against the Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Brown returned to action in Monday's game against the Lakers after missing a couple of games with a sprained right thumb. The ankle injury is a new injury that was not reported on ahead of today, and it bears watching. Marcus Smart would likely be inserted back into the starting lineup should Brown be unable to play.
Source: Chris Forsberg on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 2:35 pmKemba WalkerPG, Boston Celtics
Kemba Walker (left knee soreness) is being listed as questionable to play against the Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Walker returned to action against in Monday's home win against the Lakers by putting up 20 points, seven assists and four rebounds. Walker seems safe to deploy, moving forward as long as there are no setbacks with his sore knee. Walker has been a top-30 9/8 cat play on the year.
Source: Chris Forsberg on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 1:40 pmAaron HolidayPG, Indiana Pacers
Aaron Holiday (sore right thumb) is being listed as questionable for Wednesday's matchup with the Suns.
Holiday has shifted back to a reserve role once again with Malcolm Brogdon back in the lineup. Holiday has proven to be a steady contributor when he sees the playing time, but with Brogdon back and Victor Oladipo's (knee rehab) return right around the corner, Holiday is better left on the waiver wires for the time being.
Source: NBA Injury Report
January 21, 2020, 12:15 pmHenry EllensonPF, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have acquired the rights to Henry Ellenson from the Nets for Justin Anderson.
This trade was made through each team's G League affiliation, and Ellenson is likely to stay down there while the Raptors are healthy. Ellenson remains off the fantasy radar.
Source: Chris Milholen on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 12:11 pmDennis Smith Jr.PG, New York Knicks
Coach Mike Miller said on Monday that Dennis Smith Jr. would be re-evaluated within the next few days to get a feel for how close he is to returning to game action.
Smith, who's been in and out of the lineup all season, hasn't played in a game since December 23rd. Even when Smith returns to health, he is presumably the third-string PG for the Knicks, though his name has been floating around in possible trades. Keep an eye on this situation as a change of scenery and return to health could do wonders for Smith's fantasy value. This is all speculation for now.
January 21, 2020, 11:53 amKent BazemoreSG, Sacramento Kings
The Kings announced this morning that the trade that sent Trevor Ariza, Caleb Swanigan and Wenyen Gabriel to the Blazers for Kent Bazemore, Anthony Tolliver and two second-round picks has been officially finalized.
Bazemore will be asked to be a glue guy for the Kings but his fantasy value is likely to take a big hit. We should get an idea about his minutes starting tomorrow when the Kings face the Pistons.
Source: Kings PR on Twitter
January 21, 2020, 11:41 amTrevor ArizaSF, Portland Trail Blazers
Trevor Ariza is expected to serve as the Blazers' regular starter at small forward according to Terry Stotts.
Ariza, as expected, will fill in the void left by Kent Bazemore and his fantasy value looks to be on the rise as the minutes will be there. This looks to be a situation similar to when the Blazers signed Carmelo Anthony earlier this season. Both veterans have their flaws but the Blazers have to use them cause they run out of healthy bodies. You can feel free to add Ariza but his percentages are likely to hurt your team.