September 8, 2016, 10:31 pm
Ah, numbers. Those pesky integers that cause old schoolers to yell “NERDS” and for nerds to look down at old schoolers.
Fortunately, most of us fall in-between this made for Twitter argument about the eye test versus the spreadsheet.
But numbers do matter in fantasy leagues because duh. So understanding numbers is key to your success, and luckily it’s easier now than ever to get to the bottom of the numbers even if you’re not a numbers person.
Basketball Monster is our favorite place to do exactly that (hey Ken, free advertising!). They take the concepts of standard deviations and how a player’s production across eight or nine (or however many) categories relates to their overall value. In essence, somebody that theoretically scores 100 points per game but is league-worst in the other categories just isn’t good in standard fantasy leagues.
Their website calculates all of that on the spot and spits out a value. There are a few different ways one can evaluate that data, but the numbers are solid. And what they do is give us a context to talk about these players amidst all these different formats and here at Hoop Ball it allows us to be the best at what we do. We’re going to evaluate the stocks down to the penny and give you a professional analysis of what is happening.
Okay, to the terminology.
Top-150 player: A player performing in the top-150 (I know, we’re flying here)
Early-round player: Somebody performing in the top-50 give or take
Mid-round player: Top 50-100
Late-round player: Top 100-150
8- and 9-cat value, respectively: We’re giving you values for both of the two main formats
Must-add player: A player that you need to drop your worst player for. They need to be projected at a top-75 level for this recommendation to be made.
Must-own player: Somebody in the expressed league size should own the player.
Buy low: Reserved for players that have a strong probability of improving. Sell high is the obvious opposite of that.
Stop what you’re doing and run to the wire: Stop what you’re doing, really.
Low-level pickup: Corresponds to late-round value for the most part.
Mid-level pickup: Has a good chance to be a top-100 player. Upside can push a player with a late-round expectation into being a mid-level pickup.
High-level pickup: A shade below being a must-add player, because if they’re a must-add player we’re just going to say so. Think top 75-100 value.
Worth a look: Probably in the top 125-150 or even 175 range for a 12-team league.
Worth a flier: Something like less than 25 percent chance of hitting at a level that justifies the pickup.
Lottery ticket: A 5-10 percent chance of working out.