March 2, 2017, 10:52 pm
Ten games are on the slate for tonight, and value is once again not abundant. The two games with the highest implied total for tonight are Thunder-Suns and Celtics-Lakers. Tonight I will assuredly have exposure to both of those games, but I also believe there are multiple valuable options in the Knicks-76ers and Nets-Jazz games. With tough pricing lately, it’s imperative that you pay attention to injury news throughout the day to ensure that you cover all of the must plays. Here are a few players who you should consider when constructing your lineups.
George Hill ($6,300)
Barring a modern day miracle, the Utah Jazz are going to win tonight. The Brooklyn Nets visit Salt Lake City tonight in what should be a comfortable Jazz victory. With Rodney Hood out, George Hill and Gordon Hayward will provide most of the outside scoring tonight with some contribution from Joe Ingles.
George Hill is shooting extremely well from the floor right now. Over his past ten games, Hill has a true shooting percentage of .628. Most would not consider George Hill an elite scoring guard, but he has been remarkably consistent for the Jazz this season, averaging 17.2 points per game.
The Jazz play at such a slow pace that when matched up with a team like Brooklyn who plays super fast, often the DraftKings pricing is not high enough on the Jazz players. George Hill is $6,300 tonight but could easily be $7,000. I expect his hot shooting to continue tonight with a box score of about 20-6-3 as the Jazz look to dismantle the Nets.
Joe Ingles ($4,000)
Low risk, high reward. As mentioned above, Rodney Hood has already been ruled out for tonight, so Joe Ingles should start for the Jazz. A cheap Joe Ingles against the Brooklyn Nets equals value. Over 60% of Ingles’ shots come from behind the three-point line, so even at a conservative usage and minutes projection, Ingles figures to score around a minimum of 10 points.
In the 16 games he has started this season, Joe is averaging 2.6 assists and 3.2 rebounds. At just $4,000 on DraftKings, not much production is needed. Fortunately, the Brooklyn Nets yield DraftKings points like it’s their job even though their job is the opposite. If Ingles gets hot, he could return 7x or 8x his price. If he plays poorly, he should still return at least 3.5x. He is a low risk, high reward play and you should have exposure to him.
Robert Covington ($7,200)
Knicks vs. 76ers tonight may not win the award for regular season game of the year, but from a fantasy perspective, there is a lot to be excited about. Robert Covington has been a popular DFS play lately, especially in the absence of Joel Embiid who is out for the remainder of the season. Jahlil Okafor has been pretty terrible lately, and the Sixers have relied heavily upon Dario Saric and Robert Covington to provide the scoring.
Over the last 18 games in which Covington has been healthy, Coach Brett Brown has played him for 34.2 minutes per game. He is averaging 16.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game over that span. He is also averaging a block and 2.6 steals per game in those 18 games.
His high minute total combined with his ability to score, rebound, and create plays defensively makes him a safe play in most matchups. The Knicks are a particularly enticing matchup, so fire up Covington in all formats.
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,200)
In 21 minutes against the Thunder in his last game, DeMarcus Cousins scored 49 DraftKings points. There are only a handful of players who are as efficient as DeMarcus Cousins is from a fantasy perspective. The players who rival Cousins’ efficiency are all $10,000+, even in bad matchups.
Tonight the Pelicans take on the Spurs which is a less than ideal matchup. However, the Spurs are currently just six point favorites with a Vegas over/under of 207. With the game in New Orleans, it’s very possible that the Pelicans will hang around this game on their home floor so Boogie should see a full run of minutes.
Although our sample size is small, DeMarcus Cousins’ large role within the Pelicans offense is already solidified. He has a usage rate of 31.4% and a rebound rate of 23.7% in his three games in a Pelicans uniform. While his rebound rate may fall, his usage rate should remain around 30% or higher for the remainder of the season.
A usage rate exceeding 30% with a high assist rate and high rebound rate create a very high floor even in a tough matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol have been defensive liabilities this season and are not equipped to handle an Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins frontcourt. Both Davis and Cousins should have big games, but I prefer Cousins tonight.
Alan Williams ($4,400)
With Phoenix far outside the playoff hunt, Tyson Chandler is no longer even a part of the Suns rotation. Enter Alan Williams. Since taking on a larger role after the All-Star Break, Alan Williams has been a highly efficient scorer and rebounder. Last night versus Charlotte, Alan scored 16 points and collected 12 rebounds in just 24 minutes.
Although Williams is on the second leg of a back-to-back, both games are in Phoenix so the fatigue should not be too much of a factor, especially given the low minute total. Tonight the Suns play the Thunder in what should be a high scoring game. The Thunder also played last night late in Portland, and this could be an opportunity for the Suns to pick up two wins in two days.
Alan was +23 last night in his 24 minutes, so there is every reason for him to be given another run of at least 20 minutes tonight. Given the pace of these teams, Alan should reach value in 20-24 minutes. His low minute total limits his ceiling so I will not take much Williams exposure in tournaments, but he comes at a solid price tag for cash games.