March 30, 2017, 9:03 pm
We are almost at the end of the season, but there is still important DFS to be played! Some teams are making final pushes for playoff seeding, some teams are tanking, and other teams aren’t exactly sure what they’re doing which can lead to wacky rotations. The plays I have outlined below all play predictable minutes and should have valuable games tonight. Let’s take a look at the locks.
John Wall ($9,200)
It’s been awhile since I’ve liked a play as much as I like John Wall tonight. Clearly, his matchup tonight against Utah is not ideal, but the matchup is all that’s keeping him from being significantly more expensive. John Wall is having an awesome season, especially lately. As the Wizards try for an outside shot at the two seed, they will need Wall’s stellar play for the remainder of the regular season.
Over his last five games, John has been a monster. His usage in those games is 34.7% with a 49.5% assist rate and a 6.8% rebound rate. If he keeps those same rates tonight, he’ll blow past 5x his price. In each of those five games, he scored 50+ DraftKings points in all except one, a game against Brooklyn in which Wall only played 24 minutes. In the four games in that span that exclude Brooklyn, Wall took 20+ shots in every game.
Though the Jazz are a strong team defensively and play at a slow pace, John Wall is playing at a level that warrants a higher price tag. He is a terrific play in cash games and in tournaments.
Malcolm Brogdon (NOW RULED OUT: See Update) ($5,200)
The ROY-candidate hit a beauty to help secure a win against the Celtics on Wednesday. This shot was replayed on TV and on Twitter for the rest of the night, but this was just a small glimpse into how effective Brogdon has been for the Bucks. He is locked into a starting spot and playing right about 30 minutes every night.
Tonight Milwaukee plays Detroit in a game with big playoff implications for the Bucks. Currently, the Bucks are a 9.5 point favorite and the game has a Vegas total of 200.5. The pace in this game is going to be slow, yet Brogdon is a strong play despite the pace. Even with Giannis and Khris Middleton battling him for shots, Brogdon has averaged an 17.7% usage rate in his last nine games in the starting lineup.
Over the last four games, his usage has averaged 20.2% which is about where I am expecting it to remain tonight. In addition to his scoring, Brogdon has been assisting and rebounding efficiently lately, averaging 7.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game in his last four. His balanced stat lines have led to seven straight games of 20+ DraftKings points. I like Brogdon tonight as a high floor cash game play. I will have limited exposure in tournaments.
UPDATE: Malcolm Brogdon has unexpectedly been ruled out of tonight’s game with a back injury. Do not play him in any formats.
Paul George ($8,000)
I really like John Wall tonight, but Paul George gives him a serious run for his money as play of the night. The Pacers are right on the playoff bubble and have a winnable game tonight against Toronto. To win, Indiana will need a strong performance from PG where he should be on the floor for 36+ minutes.
In almost every Pacers game, George’s usage hangs around 30%. In fact, his usage has not dipped below 27% in over ten games. He also has 34+ DraftKings points in nine of his last ten games with a few huge totals like his 58.25 point night two games ago against Minnesota.
His floor is extremely high tonight and so is his ceiling. Unless the Raptors get hot and pull away from the Pacers, George should have plenty of floor time to make an impact. I will be rostering him every format tonight. He is such an elite play that I may refer to him as Joe Flacco until the next slate.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,000)
I just keep writing up LaMarcus almost every night. I still do not understand why his price is as low as it is on DraftKings, but I am not complaining. He has scored 31+ DraftKings points in eight straight games and his production will not slow down as the Spurs battle the Warriors for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Tonight the Spurs take on the Thunder in what should be a fast game. Coach Pop is surely expecting a sharp game out of his squad tonight following a collapse to the Warriors on Wednesday. During that game on Wednesday, I thought Kawhi looked off and that’s not just from his shooting percentage. He was sloppy with some passes and did not look like himself. I am in no way suggesting that something is off with Kawhi moving forward, but if there is any carry-over tonight with Kawhi’s shot being off, he may look for his shot less which could mean a bump in usage for Aldridge.
Even without any usage spike, Aldridge should be fine. He’s playing about 34 minutes per night with a usage rate around 25% and rebounding at about a 13% rate. Additionally, the Thunder are 29th ranked against power forwards in DraftKings points. I’m rolling with Aldridge yet again tonight.
Enes Kanter ($4,800)
Here is another instance of a guy whose price just won’t increase when it should. Enes is cheap again tonight because the Thunder play the Spurs, but I am still going to fire him up even in a bad matchup. His usage rate and rebounding rate are off the charts, and being awful at defense does not count against us in DFS.
At 27.3% usage and 17.8% rebounding (season averages in each), it’s hard for Kanter to not rack up DraftKings points even in limited playing time. In nine of his last ten games, he has scored 20+ DraftKings points. One of those games was actually against San Antonio in which he scored 27 DraftKings points in 24 minutes on 6/10 shooting.
Due to his low playing time, I’d minimize my exposure to Kanter in tournaments. But he is an excellent cash game play tonight just like many other nights.