March 30, 2017, 9:03 pm
We are almost at the end of the season, but there is still important DFS to be played! Some teams are making final pushes for playoff seeding, some teams are tanking, and other teams aren’t exactly sure what they’re doing which can lead to wacky rotations. The plays I have outlined below all play predictable minutes and should have valuable games tonight. Let’s take a look at the locks.
John Wall ($9,200)
It’s been awhile since I’ve liked a play as much as I like John Wall tonight. Clearly, his matchup tonight against Utah is not ideal, but the matchup is all that’s keeping him from being significantly more expensive. John Wall is having an awesome season, especially lately. As the Wizards try for an outside shot at the two seed, they will need Wall’s stellar play for the remainder of the regular season.
Over his last five games, John has been a monster. His usage in those games is 34.7% with a 49.5% assist rate and a 6.8% rebound rate. If he keeps those same rates tonight, he’ll blow past 5x his price. In each of those five games, he scored 50+ DraftKings points in all except one, a game against Brooklyn in which Wall only played 24 minutes. In the four games in that span that exclude Brooklyn, Wall took 20+ shots in every game.
Though the Jazz are a strong team defensively and play at a slow pace, John Wall is playing at a level that warrants a higher price tag. He is a terrific play in cash games and in tournaments.
Malcolm Brogdon (NOW RULED OUT: See Update) ($5,200)
The ROY-candidate hit a beauty to help secure a win against the Celtics on Wednesday. This shot was replayed on TV and on Twitter for the rest of the night, but this was just a small glimpse into how effective Brogdon has been for the Bucks. He is locked into a starting spot and playing right about 30 minutes every night.
Tonight Milwaukee plays Detroit in a game with big playoff implications for the Bucks. Currently, the Bucks are a 9.5 point favorite and the game has a Vegas total of 200.5. The pace in this game is going to be slow, yet Brogdon is a strong play despite the pace. Even with Giannis and Khris Middleton battling him for shots, Brogdon has averaged an 17.7% usage rate in his last nine games in the starting lineup.
Over the last four games, his usage has averaged 20.2% which is about where I am expecting it to remain tonight. In addition to his scoring, Brogdon has been assisting and rebounding efficiently lately, averaging 7.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game in his last four. His balanced stat lines have led to seven straight games of 20+ DraftKings points. I like Brogdon tonight as a high floor cash game play. I will have limited exposure in tournaments.
UPDATE: Malcolm Brogdon has unexpectedly been ruled out of tonight’s game with a back injury. Do not play him in any formats.
Paul George ($8,000)
I really like John Wall tonight, but Paul George gives him a serious run for his money as play of the night. The Pacers are right on the playoff bubble and have a winnable game tonight against Toronto. To win, Indiana will need a strong performance from PG where he should be on the floor for 36+ minutes.
In almost every Pacers game, George’s usage hangs around 30%. In fact, his usage has not dipped below 27% in over ten games. He also has 34+ DraftKings points in nine of his last ten games with a few huge totals like his 58.25 point night two games ago against Minnesota.
His floor is extremely high tonight and so is his ceiling. Unless the Raptors get hot and pull away from the Pacers, George should have plenty of floor time to make an impact. I will be rostering him every format tonight. He is such an elite play that I may refer to him as Joe Flacco until the next slate.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,000)
I just keep writing up LaMarcus almost every night. I still do not understand why his price is as low as it is on DraftKings, but I am not complaining. He has scored 31+ DraftKings points in eight straight games and his production will not slow down as the Spurs battle the Warriors for the top seed in the Western Conference.
Tonight the Spurs take on the Thunder in what should be a fast game. Coach Pop is surely expecting a sharp game out of his squad tonight following a collapse to the Warriors on Wednesday. During that game on Wednesday, I thought Kawhi looked off and that’s not just from his shooting percentage. He was sloppy with some passes and did not look like himself. I am in no way suggesting that something is off with Kawhi moving forward, but if there is any carry-over tonight with Kawhi’s shot being off, he may look for his shot less which could mean a bump in usage for Aldridge.
Even without any usage spike, Aldridge should be fine. He’s playing about 34 minutes per night with a usage rate around 25% and rebounding at about a 13% rate. Additionally, the Thunder are 29th ranked against power forwards in DraftKings points. I’m rolling with Aldridge yet again tonight.
Enes Kanter ($4,800)
Here is another instance of a guy whose price just won’t increase when it should. Enes is cheap again tonight because the Thunder play the Spurs, but I am still going to fire him up even in a bad matchup. His usage rate and rebounding rate are off the charts, and being awful at defense does not count against us in DFS.
At 27.3% usage and 17.8% rebounding (season averages in each), it’s hard for Kanter to not rack up DraftKings points even in limited playing time. In nine of his last ten games, he has scored 20+ DraftKings points. One of those games was actually against San Antonio in which he scored 27 DraftKings points in 24 minutes on 6/10 shooting.
Due to his low playing time, I’d minimize my exposure to Kanter in tournaments. But he is an excellent cash game play tonight just like many other nights.
September 23, 2019, 2:16 pmMilton DoyleG, Chicago Bulls
Milton Doyle, formerly of the Nets and Spanish club UCAM Murcia, has agreed to a partially-guaranteed deal with the Bulls.
Doyle played 10 games with the Nets in 2017-18. He's facing an uphill battle but will try to earn a roster spot in training camp.
Source: Shams Charania on Twitter
September 23, 2019, 1:31 pmJoakim NoahC, Memphis Grizzlies
Joakim Noah plans to join workouts with the Clippers this week, per Shams Charania.
Noah hasn't been in the news since he was up for consideration with the Lakers, but he would be a nice bench pickup for the Clippers. They could use a big-bodied center to crash and bang in certain matchups, and Noah would fit in as a strong defender. We'll see if anything comes of this week's workouts.
Source: The Athletic
September 23, 2019, 1:27 pmCarmelo AnthonyPF, Free Agent
As of right now, the Nets are "very unlikely" to sign Carmelo Anthony, according to a report from Shams Charania.
Brooklyn is more likely to sign players that they have worked out recently, with Charania naming Lance Thomas and C.J. Williams as possibilities. At least more people can complain about Melo being unsigned now.
Source: The Athletic
September 23, 2019, 1:20 pmChuma OkekePF, Orlando Magic
According to Shams Charania, the Magic plan to redshirt rookie Chuma Okeke, who is recovering from a torn left ACL.
Earlier in the summer Magic POBO Jeff Weltman said that he believed Okeke could return this season, but there's no rush for him to get back on the court. The 16th overall pick will be able to focus on rehab this season, and he's off the board in all redraft formats.
Source: Shams Charania on Twitter
September 23, 2019, 1:17 pmChris PaulPG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Though the Thunder are prepared to open the season with Chris Paul as a "veteran star and leader," Shams Charania is reporting that the Heat have "a level of interest" in CP3.
The Heat and Paul were said to have mutual interest back when CP3 was first traded to Oklahoma City but the teams couldn't work out a deal. It is now expected that Miami will play out the start of the season and see how things are going before they make a big play for Paul, as acquiring his three years and $124 million would require a trade of major contracts. A deal would certainly improve Paul's fantasy outlook but as it stands he figures to stay on the cusp of early-round production as long as he's on the court, even for a Thunder team that's looking to the future.
Source: The Athletic
September 23, 2019, 1:07 pmAntonio BlakeneySG, Chicago Bulls
Antonio Blakeney has agreed to a deal with Jiangsu in the CBA.
Blakeney was let go by the Bulls a couple weeks ago. A strong scorer at the G-League level, he should be able to drop some huge games in China. We'd expect to hear his name on the mid-season free agency market if all goes well overseas.
September 22, 2019, 9:20 pmFurkan KorkmazSG, Philadelphia Sixers
After an injury-plagued sophomore campaign for the Sixers, Furkan Korkmaz knows this season will be crucial for his future and he is hoping to make big strides this year.
The one thing Korkmaz has going for him is his shooting ability and that is something the Sixers could surely utilize on this roster. It did not click last season, but Korkmaz will get another chance to prove his worth at some point this season. Still, it is hard to picture him coming out of the gate with a big role on opening night.
September 22, 2019, 9:08 pmNikola MiroticPF, Milwaukee Bucks
On Sunday, Nikola Mirotic dropped 14 points on 6-of-14 shooting for Barcelona.
Mirotic's opening appearance for his new EuroLeague club, Barcelona, resulted in a victory, and he did not have to work too hard for most of his buckets at the Supercopa Endesa versus Valencia. Mirotic should find quick success during his return to European basketball, but NBA fantasy players will surely be missing his presence stateside.
September 22, 2019, 8:56 pmBruce BrownSG, Detroit Pistons
Coach Dwane Casey spoke highly of Bruce Brown’s defensive play, calling him an ‘elite defender.’
Brown remains in contention for a starting spot with the Pistons, but he is not a high-usage player, and the Pistons have stocked up with offensive threats such as Derrick Rose and the immortal Joe Johnson. It will be tough for Brown to rack up enough touches or minutes this season.
September 22, 2019, 8:41 pmKevin DurantSF, Brooklyn Nets
There is some optimism in league circles about Kevin Durant's (Achilles) chances of playing this season, according to Brian Lewis of the New York Post.
Looking back on Durant's decision to return during the Finals, the Nets may want to exude caution when considering KD's return to action. However, Durant is pursuing his rehab with a sense of purpose, and it would be great to see him get back on the court this season. We'll keep you posted when a real timeline on Durant's rehab emerges. This news does not make him a target on draft day for standard leagues.
Source: New York Post