April 6, 2017, 7:56 pm
Tonight’s slate is a fun one. As more players are ruled out, value should be popping up left and right. If you were hoping to play Russ, you’re going to have to pay up as he is $14,000. While I am not going to be rostering much Westbrook tonight, there are some key matchups I am looking to exploit. Timberwolves are too cheap, Suns are too cheap, and the Spurs reserves should be valuable with Leonard, Aldridge, Gasol, Green, and Ginobili ruled out for rest. Let’s look at some options for tonight.
Patty Mills ($4,000)
Coach Pop has ruled out multiple Spurs tonight (Kawhi, LaMarcus, Manu, Pau, and Danny Green), so San Antonio is extremely thin. As you probably already know, this means it’s time to fire up Patty Mills. The last time Kawhi and LaMarcus were both out, Mills scored 33.5 DraftKings points in 21 minutes against Golden State.
Had that game been closer, Mills would have played more minutes. Tonight against Dallas, San Antonio is currently just a 2.5 point favorite so a blowout does not seem probable. Patty is going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, and you are going to want to have him in both tournaments and in cash games.
Devin Booker ($8,000)
Over the last seven games, Devin Booker is playing over 40 minutes per game. As Phoenix continues to tank, they are giving their young guys as much playing time as possible. In that seven game span, Booker’s usage rate is 34.4% on average. This number is slightly inflated due to his 70-point monster against Boston where he had 50% usage, but the point is that his usage his insanely high lately.
He’s going to run 40 minutes and chuck threes against a fast Oklahoma City Thunder team. It is almost a guarantee that he will shoot 20+ times which should mean he will take about eight three-pointers. Even if he shoots just averagely, he should score 25-30 real points. When you factor in a few assists, rebounds, and steals, it’s easy to see why he is one of the top options of the night.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,200)
Andrew Wiggins should never be this cheap under any circumstances. The Timberwolves take on the Jazz tonight in what will be an inevitably slow matchup. However, Wiggins is far too active of a scorer with a full minutes load to consider fading him. Some will be wary of the fact that his minutes were down last game, but the Timberwolves got blown out by the Warriors. Thibodeau is committed to playing Wiggins big minutes down the stretch of the season, so 36+ minutes tonight should be expected.
In his last 11 games, Andrew’s worst DraftKings performance came against Portland, a game in which he had 24.5 DraftKings points on 8/19 shooting. His minute total (roughly 38 per night) combined with such a high usage rate create a floor that’s as high as anybody’s at this price. Given his upside due to his versatility and scoring ability, I view Wiggins as a high floor, high ceiling must play tonight.
David Lee ($4,700)
As previously mentioned, the Spurs are extremely thin tonight in the absence of Kawhi, Pau and LaMarcus in the frontcourt. David Lee should have a large role in the Spur’s game plan tonight as they take on the Mavericks. The Mavs are one of the league’s worst rebounding teams, a clear positive for Lee tonight.
When you consider the starting lineup for the Spurs tonight, it’s hard to envision an offensive scheme where Lee isn’t touching the ball most possessions. The starting lineup could be full of low usage players. David Lee is not necessarily the most elite scorer, but he is going to be taking shots tonight. Outside of his matchup with the Grizzlies, Lee has scored about a DraftKings point per minute recently. He should play 24-28 minutes tonight, so I will have heavy exposure.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,200)
I am eager to pair Wiggins and Towns tonight as the Wolves take on the Jazz. Some will view the matchup as a negative (which it is), but the negative matchup should lower the ownership of Towns. Coach Thibs has shown that he is going to continue to roll Towns out there for 38 minutes when the game is close, and tonight’s game should be close. Despite the slow pace, Towns should have no problem exceeding 45 DraftKings points tonight.
He has scored 40+ DraftKings points in 14 of his most recent 15 games. The usage rate is there, the rebounding is there, and the minutes are there. If we get lucky with a few assists, blocks, and maybe a steal or two, he could really have a big game. Rudy Gobert is a tremendous defender, so Towns’ upside may be somewhat limited by his opponent, but a 60 point performance is very possible even despite Gobert’s efforts. I will have Towns in cash games and tournaments.