March 28, 2017, 9:35 pm
Ten games are on the slate for tonight, and all eyes are on the playoff races. As teams jockey for seeding and lottery odds, it’s necessary to analyze the rotations of each team more thoroughly. Value is not easy to come by today, but several options stand out. Additionally, opportunities should present themselves throughout the day as players are ruled out for rest or injury. Let’s look at a few players who you should be locking into your lineups.
Goran Dragic ($7,500)
The Miami Heat are somehow eyeing a playoff spot after a terrible start to the season. Last night’s win over the Pistons was massive, but it is not time for Miami to get complacent. The Heat take on the Knicks tonight at Madison Square Garden in what Vegas indicates will be a close game. The Heat are favored by three with a current Vegas total of 209.5.
Goran Dragic continues to be a key factor in Miami’s success, particularly with Dion Waiters injured. In his last ten games, Goran has a usage rate of 28.3% while assisting on 26.8% of the Heat’s baskets. He also has a 7.2% rebound rate in that stretch. Dragic is doing a little bit of everything lately, and the Knicks should not end that trend. Over the last 15 games, Goran is averaging 35.17 DraftKings points, and the DraftKings pricing team took notice.
His price tag made it all the way up to $8,100 four games ago against Phoenix, and he was $8,000 against Boston and Toronto. The dip down to $7,500 should be exploited given the favorable matchup. Derrick Rose is certainly not a Defensive Player of the Year finalist, and Goran should have no problem continuing to produce for the thriving Miami Heat as they pursue a playoff spot.
Buddy Hield ($5,400)
If you’d told me four months ago that I’d be rostering a $5,400 Buddy Hield against the Utah Jazz, I wouldn’t believe you. But that’s exactly what is happening tonight. Buddy is playing excellent basketball right now, and the shooting potential he showed at Oklahoma is finally showing up in the league.
Sacramento continues to develop its young core after the trading of Cousins, and Hield is succeeding under Joerger’s direction. Over the last four games, Hield has a 24.6% usage rate, a 14.2% assist rate, and a 10.6% rebound rate. In those games, he averaged 18 points, 2.8 assists, and 5.8 rebounds. While I do not expect a rebound rate as high as 10.6% tonight against the Jazz, Buddy checks out as a value play even at a lower rate.
Utah is a bad matchup, but at this price, Hield should be valuable. His minutes are fairly consistently above 30 and his role within the offense is secured. Half of his shots are coming from behind the arc, so if the shots are dropping, he could rack up a quick six or nine points which is huge from a fantasy perspective. Hield is not the most exciting play tonight given the matchup, but I think his price makes him a smart option.
Vince Carter ($3,900)
Vince is a high floor, low ceiling option tonight, so consider him in cash games and avoid much exposure in tournaments. Since entering the starting lineup eight games ago, Vince is playing 30 minutes per game. He is not lighting up the stat sheet, but his 3-point shooting is the main reason why.
Over half of Vince’s shots come from deep and in his last seven games, Vince is shooting 25% from behind the 3-point line. He is a better shooter than that. In fact, his 3-point percentage for the season is 36.4%. He is still not shooting threes like an elite shooter, but it’s serviceable for the price tag and his minutes.
Chandler Parsons is shut down, and there is no real threat to Carters minutes. At conservative projections, Vince should hit value. If his shooting corrects itself tonight, he could score 6x or 7x without much of a problem.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,100)
I’ve been relentlessly rostering LaMarcus all season long and it is finally paying dividends. The Spurs are rolling right now as everyone was able to see on Monday night in their nationally televised destruction of the Cavaliers. Tonight brings another nationally televised game, but this is an even bigger game. The Spurs take on the Warriors in what should be a very fun game to watch.
Lately, LaMarcus is playing a consistent 34+ minutes while shooting more and rebounding well. He has a 28.5% usage rate in his last seven games while rebounding at a 13.8% rate. In each of those games, he has scored 30+ DraftKings points. Spoiler: tonight will be no different. This matchup should have a decent pace to it and will remain close throughout. As each team battles for the one seed, we should expect a sharp, high quality game even though the Warriors played last night. I expect Aldridge and Kawhi to each have big games tonight as the Spurs try to earn home court advantage in the playoffs.
Enes Kanter ($5,100)
Enes’ price tag continues to not make sense. He has been underpriced almost all season and tonight is yet another example. Kanter had a terrible game against the Mavericks last time out, but there is no reason to hold that against him. He has been extremely consistent, and had scored 20+ DraftKings points in eight straight games before his dud against Dallas.
Kanter is the scoring option off the bench. He has had eight straight games of 25%+ usage. Without his rebounding ability, he might still be a valuable option, but the rebounds contribute to his safety and upside. The Thunder take on the Magic, and Orlando is 21st against centers in terms of DraftKings scoring.
Las Vegas currently has the Thunder as six point favorites with an over/under of 218. A quick game + a positive matchup = heavy exposure to Kanter.