April 11, 2017, 10:51 am
One of the most important aspects of NBA DFS is adapting to news. This is where you can find the most value every night. There is no research that can create a better lineup when people who pay attention to news slot in Deron Williams, at minimum price salary, when he goes off for 50 Fanduel points. With only a couple nights left of NBA regular season, the news has never been more important. Tonight, we’re going to adapt to the current DFS environment to find the best plays.
I usually break down each position and give a player you should lock in and a player you should avoid. For Tuesday, I will be giving four guys you should lock in and only one to avoid. If what I believe will happen comes to fruition, it could prove to be a monumental error if ignored.
Tyler Ulis, $6,400, PHO@SAC, 108 Vegas Implied Total, -1.9 Pace of Play
I could scream until I am blue in the face about how important minutes are for DFS. Minutes are money, minutes are production, and minutes are a floor. The more minutes a player is in the game, the more opportunities he has to rack up stats, and the more time he’s on the court the higher is DFS point floor is. We want guys with monster ceilings in DFS, Ulis has that. We want guys who can provide security with a high floor, Ulis has that too.
He’s the perfect cash game play and the perfect GPP play. He has averaged 40 minutes per game over the past 13 games. He has reached 5x-8x in 10 of his last 13 games. Lock him in and just worry about who to play at the second point guard position.
Skal Labissiere, $4,500, PHO@SAC, 111.5 Vegas Implied Total, +4.1 Pace of Play
The Kings actually have the highest Vegas projection on the entire slate. Their opponent, the Phoenix Suns, play incredibly fast and sloppy. Skal has played 31+ minutes in five of the last six games. He has also been shooting the ball 12-15 times per game during this six-game stretch. Last game against the Rockets, another poor defensive team, he scored 40.7 Fanduel points. He should feast in this fast-paced game at home.
He’s way too cheap and will be heavily owned. Normally I would say to fade a player like this with heavy ownership, but I believe he is a free square and needs to be locked in.
Larry Nance Jr., $4,600, NO@LAL, 110 Vegas Implied Total, +1.2 Pace of Play
At the end of the 2016 season, Nance Jr. looked like he was blossoming into an excellent power forward. He’s doing it again to close out the 2017 season. Over the past five games, he has averaged 10.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks. He is locked into heavy minutes with Ivica Zubac out for the season and has really taken advantage in the boost in playing time.
Power forward is the third highest fantasy point producer in DFS, behind point guard and center, and Larry is producing. Similar to Skal, he is just too cheap right now for the minutes and production and is basically a free square. This is the end of season NBA DFS in all its glory.
Karl-Anthony Towns, $10,600, OKC@MIN, 109.8 Vegas Implied Total, +1.8 Pace of Play
Towns has been going bananas over the past month. He has scored 20+ points in 23 of the last 25 games. He has 10 games of 30+ points. He plays the Thunder tonight, who normally play stout defense against centers. However, there is a good chance that the Thunder lowers the minutes of their starters and possibly rest some players. The Thunder are locked into the sixth seed and have nothing to play for.
Towns will probably shoot the ball 20+ times again and will possibly be doing it against backups. He should feast and hit his 5x value with a chance to duplicate his 72.2 point outing from Sunday.
Russell Westbrook, $13,900, OKC@MIN, 106.8 Vegas Implied Total, -1.8 Pace of Play
The Thunder are locked into the sixth seed and are just biding their time before the showdown with James Harden’s Rockets. There is a chance that the Thunder rests some players tonight or at the very least shave a few minutes of Westy’s playing time. Either way, his ownership should be massive and for the first time in a month, I think he’s worth fading. Westbrook set the record for most triple-doubles in a season last game against the Nuggets. What else does he have to prove? He is already the favorite for the MVP award, according to Vegas. The Thunder also are already locked into a three vs. six matchup in the first round against the Rockets.
There is not much to pay up for on this slate and I think a contrarian move would be to leave a nice sum of salary on the table and go with the best raw point total you believe you can create while not worrying about value plays.
Lock in the four that I listed today, fade Westy and hope he doesn’t drop 84 points again, and go contrarian on the second to last night in the NBA regular season. If you haven’t had a big payday by now then your process has been off. Sometimes it takes doing the difficult and unpopular thing to be successful. Hopefully, tonight is the night.
I wish you the best of luck tonight! Find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and drop me a line during the games. I love chatting with my followers or seeing screen shots of their winnings. Enjoy!
July 4, 2020, 9:35 amCaris LeVertPG-SG, Brooklyn Nets
Caris LeVert embraces challenge of being a leader.
LeVert has been an active participant in the racial inequality protests and admitted that basketball is very minor right now compared to everything else going on in the world but is ready for the NBA restart saying, "For me, it’s just taking on that challenge of being a leader, being the leader of that group, going down there with some of the most experience on the team, playoff experience." In the 16 games since rejoining the starting lineup, LeVert has put up All-Star numbers with 24.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists, while shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range and leading the Nets to a 9-7 record over that span. The upward trajectory continues for the Nets' 20th overall pick in the 2016 draft.
July 4, 2020, 9:16 amJordan CrawfordSG, Free Agent
Jordan Crawford has agreed to a deal with Russia's Lokomotiv Kuban.
Crawford last played in the NBA for the Pelicans in 2018 with career averages of 12.2 points, 2.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 24.4 minutes. The career journeyman has played for five NBA teams since 2010 with a few stints with China in between. Since the beginning of 2019, he has played in Israel, China, Germany and now we can add Russia to that list.
July 4, 2020, 8:13 amLance StephensonSG, Free Agent
Lance Stephenson is ineligible to sign with the Pacers according to Scott Agness.
Stephenson to the Pacers was being discussed in early March and made sense now with Victor Oladipo choosing to sit out the remainder of the season but this move apparently will not happen. The 29-year old Stephenson spent this past season in China where he averaged 26.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists for the CBA's Flying Leopards.
Source: Scott Agness on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 10:10 pmAnthony DavisPF-C, Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis has high expectations for the Lakers when they resume play later in July in Orlando, citing the long layoff as a favorable development for his squad.
As if the Lakers weren't already squarely in the hunt for an NBA championship. When speaking to ESPN's Dave McMenamin, Davis said that he believes their "chances are higher just because we’re all rested and we’re all ready to go.” Depth seems to be the most glaring issue potentially facing the Lakers as they prepare to make the trip to Disney World, as defensive stalwart Avery Bradley recently opted out of the remainder of the season. Bradley was subsequently replaced by well-traveled veteran guard J.R. Smith (who has a long history of playoff runs alongside LeBron James with the Cavs), but the team is still unsure of veteran center Dwight Howard's status the rest of the way. Other than Howard, the Lakers' roster is seemingly set for Orlando. Davis sounds like he's ready to rock, however.
July 3, 2020, 8:28 pmDeng AdelPF, Brooklyn Nets
Deng Adel, who played 19 games for the Cavs last season as a two-way player, is being pursued by the Illawara Hawks of Australia's NBL, which, notably was the team 18-year-old LaMelo Ball played for last season (and has attempted to purchase).
Adel had two short stints before last season with the Rockets and Nets in the Summer League and the preseason, respectively. He was originally a standout at Louisville but went undrafted in 2018 before hitching on with the Cavs on a two-way pact. This season he had been playing for the Long Island Nets, the Nets' G League affiliate, prior to the pause and ultimately the end of the G League season. Adel had registered averages of 11.1 points, 4.2 boards and 2.6 assists to that point. Also of note, Adel spent the lion's share of his childhood in Australia after his family moved from South Sudan around the time he was eight.
July 3, 2020, 4:35 pmDarius MillerSF, New Orleans Pelicans
Darius Miller is unsure if he will be able to play in Orlando, as he continues to recover from a torn a ruptured right Achillies.
Due to the lockdown, Miller has been unable to participate in any live-action, or else he would have played in 3-on-3 or 5-on-5 by now. At this point, it would be surprising for the Pelicans to risk his health by pushing for him to participate in the eight-game regular season.
Source: Will Guillory on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 4:26 pmJJ RedickSG, New Orleans Pelicans
J.J. Redick has intentionally lost 10 pounds since the quarantine began.
Redick's goal was to get back to his playing weight during his college days at Duke, and it's not a surprise that one of the most dedicated workers in the league was able to drop weight during the coronavirus pandemic. Redick's shooting will be sorely needed when the Pelicans try to chase down the Grizzlies for a playoff spot, but if he does not come out of the gates making an impact the Pelicans are likely to shift to another hot hand on their deep roster. Redick has only seen 26.4 minutes per game this season, and that is going to limit his impact to strictly 3-pointers (2.9 per game).
Source: Daniel Sallerson on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 4:14 pmTyler HerroPG, Miami Heat
Tyler Herro said the time off allowed his right ankle to fully recover.
Herro returned to action just before the shutdown due to COVID-19. With the ankle back to 100 percent, he will face no restrictions when play picks back up in Orlando. While Herro's scoring prowess caused some increased expectations for his rookie season, he's largely been an afterthought for the Heat. He can clearly shoot the rock (2.1 treys on .391 shooting), but the rest of his game is lacking, and the Heat do not have time to devote to rookie development when the season resumes.
Source: Ira Winderman on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 4:08 pmKent BazemoreSG, Sacramento Kings
Kent Bazemore, who has been a welcomed presence since joining the Kings in January, reiterated that he'd like to stay with the team.
Bazemore had a lot of opportunity before him when the Blazers were faltering due to injuries at the start of the season and he failed to take advantage. However, a change of scenery made a significant difference, as his field goal percentage leaped from .347 with the Blazers, to .426 with the Kings, and his scoring also increased from 7.9 points to 10.3 points per contest. He sounds locked in as the Kings prepare for the Orlando bubble, but a healthy Kings' roster could handicap his opportunity for playing time when things start back up.
Source: James Ham on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 3:57 pmVictor OladipoSG, Indiana Pacers
Shams Charania is reporting that Victor Oladipo will sit out the remainder of the Pacers' season.
Oladipo decided to exercise caution as his quad tendon is still susceptible to a relapse, and the circumstances of the Orlando bubble are anything but predictable. It's a big hit to the Pacers chances when play resumes, but Oladipo should be close to 100 percent next year as he continues his rehab and seeks to further strengthen his quad tendon. This season was a flop as he only appeared in 13 games, but Oladipo should be looking to return fully recovered and seeking early-round value next year. The Pacers will continue leaning on their depth to fill the void, and Malcolm Brogdon will continue to be the lead guard running the show in Indiana.
Source: Shams Charania on Twitter