April 11, 2017, 10:51 am
One of the most important aspects of NBA DFS is adapting to news. This is where you can find the most value every night. There is no research that can create a better lineup when people who pay attention to news slot in Deron Williams, at minimum price salary, when he goes off for 50 Fanduel points. With only a couple nights left of NBA regular season, the news has never been more important. Tonight, we’re going to adapt to the current DFS environment to find the best plays.
I usually break down each position and give a player you should lock in and a player you should avoid. For Tuesday, I will be giving four guys you should lock in and only one to avoid. If what I believe will happen comes to fruition, it could prove to be a monumental error if ignored.
Tyler Ulis, $6,400, PHO@SAC, 108 Vegas Implied Total, -1.9 Pace of Play
I could scream until I am blue in the face about how important minutes are for DFS. Minutes are money, minutes are production, and minutes are a floor. The more minutes a player is in the game, the more opportunities he has to rack up stats, and the more time he’s on the court the higher is DFS point floor is. We want guys with monster ceilings in DFS, Ulis has that. We want guys who can provide security with a high floor, Ulis has that too.
He’s the perfect cash game play and the perfect GPP play. He has averaged 40 minutes per game over the past 13 games. He has reached 5x-8x in 10 of his last 13 games. Lock him in and just worry about who to play at the second point guard position.
Skal Labissiere, $4,500, PHO@SAC, 111.5 Vegas Implied Total, +4.1 Pace of Play
The Kings actually have the highest Vegas projection on the entire slate. Their opponent, the Phoenix Suns, play incredibly fast and sloppy. Skal has played 31+ minutes in five of the last six games. He has also been shooting the ball 12-15 times per game during this six-game stretch. Last game against the Rockets, another poor defensive team, he scored 40.7 Fanduel points. He should feast in this fast-paced game at home.
He’s way too cheap and will be heavily owned. Normally I would say to fade a player like this with heavy ownership, but I believe he is a free square and needs to be locked in.
Larry Nance Jr., $4,600, NO@LAL, 110 Vegas Implied Total, +1.2 Pace of Play
At the end of the 2016 season, Nance Jr. looked like he was blossoming into an excellent power forward. He’s doing it again to close out the 2017 season. Over the past five games, he has averaged 10.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks. He is locked into heavy minutes with Ivica Zubac out for the season and has really taken advantage in the boost in playing time.
Power forward is the third highest fantasy point producer in DFS, behind point guard and center, and Larry is producing. Similar to Skal, he is just too cheap right now for the minutes and production and is basically a free square. This is the end of season NBA DFS in all its glory.
Karl-Anthony Towns, $10,600, OKC@MIN, 109.8 Vegas Implied Total, +1.8 Pace of Play
Towns has been going bananas over the past month. He has scored 20+ points in 23 of the last 25 games. He has 10 games of 30+ points. He plays the Thunder tonight, who normally play stout defense against centers. However, there is a good chance that the Thunder lowers the minutes of their starters and possibly rest some players. The Thunder are locked into the sixth seed and have nothing to play for.
Towns will probably shoot the ball 20+ times again and will possibly be doing it against backups. He should feast and hit his 5x value with a chance to duplicate his 72.2 point outing from Sunday.
Russell Westbrook, $13,900, OKC@MIN, 106.8 Vegas Implied Total, -1.8 Pace of Play
The Thunder are locked into the sixth seed and are just biding their time before the showdown with James Harden’s Rockets. There is a chance that the Thunder rests some players tonight or at the very least shave a few minutes of Westy’s playing time. Either way, his ownership should be massive and for the first time in a month, I think he’s worth fading. Westbrook set the record for most triple-doubles in a season last game against the Nuggets. What else does he have to prove? He is already the favorite for the MVP award, according to Vegas. The Thunder also are already locked into a three vs. six matchup in the first round against the Rockets.
There is not much to pay up for on this slate and I think a contrarian move would be to leave a nice sum of salary on the table and go with the best raw point total you believe you can create while not worrying about value plays.
Lock in the four that I listed today, fade Westy and hope he doesn’t drop 84 points again, and go contrarian on the second to last night in the NBA regular season. If you haven’t had a big payday by now then your process has been off. Sometimes it takes doing the difficult and unpopular thing to be successful. Hopefully, tonight is the night.
I wish you the best of luck tonight! Find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and drop me a line during the games. I love chatting with my followers or seeing screen shots of their winnings. Enjoy!