February 13, 2020, 5:31 pm
Kevin Garnett once had a commercial where he angrily said “You know my rap sheet. You know how I get down. 20, 10, and 5!” Actually, in his prime, he was more like 22, 13, and 5. But the reason I mention it is that we fantasy addicts have a rough stat set in our head for almost every relevant player in the league. And because of that, it can be hard for us to associate a player with better or worse numbers until they’ve been producing them for a long time. And while it’s unwise to fall for every hot or cold streak, many of us could benefit by more quickly changing our opinion of players when they’re improving or declining.
This week I’m once again looking at numbers from just the calendar year 2020, which now represents about a quarter of a season. Many players that are significantly up or down over this time will regress and end up closer to where they’ve been in the past. But I think it’s worth taking this recent sample of about six weeks pretty seriously when determining some trade targets, as there’s a decent chance these stats are the new normal (or close to it).
As I mentioned last week, there are always plenty of people in your leagues looking to buy low on players that are traditionally much better than they’ve been lately and to sell high on the guys that have been outkicking their coverage, so to say. But since people tend to go too far with that strategy, thinking that they absolutely have to trade a guy that’s suddenly putting up better numbers for a bigger name that’s been cool or banged up, there’s plenty of room for us to take advantage and get something extra.
Today’s name brand players are three big name, top-15 guys and then three of the most-hyped players right now. These last three are skyrocketing but the stats aren’t quite matching the excitement. Overall, they’re six players with great trade value. The off-branders are players I think should be trade targets based on what they’ve been doing and their ability to keep it up for the rest of the season. I left off a few spiking players that have mainly peaked due to injuries to teammates.
These stats are from 1/1 to 2/11 and the 8-cat rankings are from Basketball Monster.
Normally, I choose a name brand player that’s ranking below the off-brand player, but I couldn’t resist throwing Damian Lillard, the third-ranked player of 2020 based on some insane scoring performances, next to the surging Trae Young. If Trae can almost keep pace with Dame while Dame is as hot as he is right now, there’s a great chance that Trae can match him or best him down the stretch. And to make the strategy clear, I’d trade Lillard for Young plus an upgrade at a second position.
This one is a gamble. The first player had a top-5 finish last season and traditionally ranks in the teens. However, Paul George has a few strikes against him right now. He’s been injured for much of the season and he’s playing with a new team that also just added another forward to the roster. I’d guess that he probably gets back up around number 20 in the games in which he actually plays since his steals should improve after some regression to the mean. However, Khris Middleton is also right in that range and putting up very similar numbers. I think you can get Middleton and more from a George fan.
Here we have a trade-off. Need improvement in assists and field goal percentage? Can you afford a hit in threes and blocks? Then ship off your Nikola Vucevic to the team with Domantas Sabonis. They’re likely looking for blocks and threes (and steals), since Sabonis is notorious for his lack of production there. And if that person’s brain jumps to “Vucevic equals top-25 and Sabonis equals somewhere in the 40s” like mine does, you should be able to acquire more in the swap.
Here we go with our first hot young prospect. He’s even in the top-50 over the last month. Unfortunately he’s hurt right now. But if you have a contending team that’s willing to stash Michael Porter Jr. until he’s healthy, I bet you could acquire Nemanja Bjelica and another, possibly even more valuable piece. Bjelica has benefited from injuries in the Kings frontcourt for sure. However, the injuries have been going on all season and look to have an excellent chance of continuing at least through the fantasy playoffs. So this just is who Bjelica is this year and Porter could easily find himself with reduced minutes while the Nuggets ride their veterans.
The second hyped-up youth is a rookie making plenty of highlights and getting fantasy players all excited. Ja Morant looks like the real deal, but he’s still lacking in some important categories when compared to typical NBA point guards (threes and steals). So, let’s look at another point guard that has those same limitations: Derrick Rose. Now, someone that rosters Rose may still think of him as an MVP candidate, in which case this is a no-go. But more likely, Rose is seen as a player that sits at the end of the top-100 (especially after adding a 1-for-13 performance in his return from injury as I write this). Sending off Morant for Rose shouldn’t hurt you, and you should be able to net a lot more than Rose in the deal right now. As long as Rose can stay on the floor, he should be able to run wild for the new-look Pistons.
I discussed this hot second-year player a few weeks ago when I was looking at amazing per-36 production of players that could be earning extra minutes soon (Michael Porter Jr. was in there, too). De’Anthony Melton has become a fantasy darling over the last few months, and he looks to be getting just a couple of those extra minutes now that the Grizzlies shook up their roster. However, the actual production isn’t quite there yet, due to his still-limited minutes. You’re better off with a player that may still even be available in your league if it’s shallow: Mikal Bridges. So, if you have Melton and aren’t totally smitten, see if you can scoop up Bridges for him and enjoy the better-across-the-board stats.
Enjoy the All-Star break, everyone. Personally, I can’t wait to see some more Derrick Jones Jr. in the Slam Dunk Contest.
February 21, 2020, 1:40 amDamion LeeSG, Golden State Warriors
Damion Lee went 4-for-12 from the field and 4-for-4 at the line to finish Thursday's game with 13 points, one 3-pointer, four rebounds, three assists and one steal.
Lee has been one of the hotter pickups since D'Angelo Russell was sent to the Wolves. However, some buyer's remorse might be setting in as Lee's .413 shooting from the field can dip thanks to the variance that comes along with him being a streaky shooter, making more suiting for FG-punting builds.
February 21, 2020, 1:36 amJuan Toscano-AndersonPF, Golden State Warriors
Juan Toscano-Anderson was a beneficiary of lengthy garbage time in Thursday's loss to the Rockets, recording a career-high 10 points on 5-of-9 shooting with seven rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block.
JTA played well, but as mentioned this game was long over even before the fans could form their conga line leading out of the arena. He's worth a watch list spot if you're playing in an 18-teamer or deeper, but expect him to fall off when Stephen Curry eventually returns.
February 21, 2020, 1:33 amAndrew WigginsSF, Golden State Warriors
Andrew Wiggins recorded a team-high 22 points on 10-of-17 shooting with three rebounds, two 3s, one steal and two blocks in a loss to the Rockets on Thursday.
There's not much more to add regarding Wiggins and the Warriors' sad state. On a positive note, Wiggins has managed to keep the peripherals going since joining the Dubs, something he should be able to sustain ROS.
February 21, 2020, 1:30 amDeMarre CarrollSF, Houston Rockets
DeMarre Carroll debuted for the Rockets on Thursday vs. the Warriors but was quiet in his 13 minutes off the bench with just two points (2-of-2 FTs), three rebounds and four assists.
Carroll was added more for playoff depth as a veteran shooter. He's not going to make noise in fantasy, so leave him on the wire.
February 21, 2020, 1:26 amJeff GreenSF, Houston Rockets
Jeff Green made his debut for the Rockets on Thursday and looked surprisingly spry given that he's 33 years young, chiming in with 17 points on 6-of-8 shooting with four 3s, four rebounds and one steal in 24 minutes.
Before you go rushing off to grab Green, note that there was so much garbage time in this one, you could have built a landfill. He was likely seeing extra run to get acclimated with his new team and system. Leave him on the wire for now. Green's extra time on the floor came at the expense of Danuel House, who played just 19 minutes and was able to tally 11 points on 4-of-7 shooting (three 3s) with three rebounds and one assist. House remains a standard-league hold at this time.
February 21, 2020, 1:21 amJames HardenPG, Houston Rockets
Coming out of the All-Star break, a refreshed and rested James Harden was back in tip-top form, leading the Rockets to a 135-105 stomping of the Warriors with 29 points (6-of-16 FGs, 14-of-15 FTs), 10 dimes and a fat stat line.
Harden was in full beast mode (beard mode?) in this one, handily dispatching with the Dubs with three rebounds, three treys, three steals and two blocks, while committing just one turnover. 2019-20 has been rockier than usual for Harden as he saw some unfamiliar territory with ups and downs. He's back and killing it, so clearly the ASB-rest may have been exactly what the doctor ordered.
February 21, 2020, 1:14 amKent BazemoreSG, Sacramento Kings
Kent Bazemore saw some quality run in Thursday's win over the Grizzlies, logging 23 minutes off the bench and dropping 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting with three rebounds, two 3s and one steal.
Bazemore is not an efficient scorer, so his .600 clip from the field tonight should be taken with a hefty grain of salt. He's been widely inconsistent for most of the season but is worth keeping an eye on in case he makes it a habit of playing well.
February 21, 2020, 1:10 amJabari ParkerPF, Sacramento Kings
Jabari Parker (right shoulder impingement) debuted for the Kings on Thursday but was unremarkable in his 15 minutes off the bench, tallying just four points, four rebounds and two assists.
While Parker is not a high-impact player in fantasy, we should expect to see those minutes rise as he gets his legs back. And given that Marvin Bagley III's timetable is in weeks, Parker may be worth a streamer once he's closer to 100 percent.
February 21, 2020, 1:05 amHarrison BarnesSF, Sacramento Kings
Harrison Barnes was unconscious as he went 7-for-11 from deep en route to his game-high 32 points in Thursday's 129-125 win over the Grizzlies.
Barnes was hot as hell, making 11-of-17 shots from the field, but chipped with just a sprinkling of peripherals outside of the 3-pointers, adding one rebound, one assist and one steal to the box. Even when he's on a tear, Barnes still is just a score-first (only) guy, who doesn't really diversify into the other categories. Still, it was a good night overall. Just don't expect him to be THIS good every night moving forward.
February 21, 2020, 1:00 amTyus JonesPG, Memphis Grizzlies
Tyus Jones made his 18 minutes on the floor count on Thursday, chipping in 16 points on 6-of-7 shooting with three rebounds, two 3s and six assists.
Jones is flying under the radar lately and should be on the radars of managers looking for a quality guard to stream. While he's not averaging 20 minutes per game, his per-36 minute numbers of 13.2 points, 8.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 3-pointers per game on .468 shooting from the field should be enough to convince you that he's worth the grab.