November 29, 2017, 7:52 pm
It’s crazy how quickly your fantasy season can take a turn for the better or worse.
I starter out my main league of record by losing the first four weeks of the season, it was definitely tough. My league mates surely didn’t let me forget that I write for a fantasy basketball website either, and they threw their fair share of jabs at me.
However, it’s funny how the fantasy gods work, after losing my first four weeks, I’ve rattled off a two week win streak and am well on my way to winning a third. Moral of the story, never get too high and never get too low because things can change in the blink of an eye when it comes to fantasy hoops.
Without further ado, here’s Week Six’s Stock Watch, where we look at the fluctuation in values of some of the league’s most notable players, as well as some that you might be able to steal off of your waiver wire.
Here are the “Stock Up” guys from last week with a little update on how their stocks have changed, with “Stock Up” meaning they’re still on the rise, “Neutral” meaning their stock hasn’t changed and “Stock Down” meaning they’re on the decline:
Paul George, SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder: Neutral
Chris Paul, PG, Houston Rockets: Neutral
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG, Brooklyn Nets: Stock Up (As long as D’Angelo Russell remains out, the sky is the limit for Dinwiddie.)
Kris Dunn, PG, Chicago Bulls: Neutral
Mario Chalmers, PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies: Stock Down
Dewayne Dedmon, C, Atlanta Hawks: Neutral
Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG, Utah Jazz
As the thirteenth pick in last year’s NBA Draft, Mitchell has been one of the biggest surprises of both the fantasy season and the NBA season itself. He’s a pure scoring machine, and he’s somehow still being overlooked in NBA circles. In the “Rookie Ladder” on NBA.com, Mitchell isn’t even considered to be in the top-5 for theRookie of the Year award.
Now of course he won’t be winning it, along with every other rookie not named Ben Simmons, but nevertheless Mitchell is playing well enough to at least be mentioned in the conversation. The Jazz are in major need of some offensive firepower, currently ranking as the 25th best team in average score per game at 101.30 according to Oddsshark.com and they really struggle on the road only managing to score 99.75 points outside of Utah.
Thats where Mitchell comes in, he seems to score at will from all areas on the court. He’s averaging the third most points among rookies at 14.9 behind Ben Simmons and Kyle Kuzma in 28.3 minutes. The downside about Mitchell is the field goal percentage, he’s only shooting 38.3 percent from the field and 34.4 percent from behind the arc. Shooting woes were to be expected from Mitchell, as he is a rookie and even at that he’s attempting 14.3 shots per game and only making 5.5 of them. If he can improve his percentage to about 43 or 45 percent, he could easily be averaging 18 or more points per game.
Along with the points, Mitchell is averaging 3.2 assists,3.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks. While that isn’t gamebreakinig, it’s definitely adequate and he has the upside to go off on any given night. He’s also posting a 27.8 usage rate, which is higher than players such as Lou Williams, Carmelo Anthony and Anthony Davis. The Jazz trust Mitchell and so should you, he’s currently posting top-100 value in 9-cat leagues and he’s the 65th ranked player if you’re punting field goal percentage.
He should get better and better as the season goes along and he has massive upside, making him worthy of a roster spot in all leagues and if you can get him for the low and withstand his percentages, I’d think about pulling the trigger.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons
Tobias Harris has quietly been having the best season of his career on a 13-6 Pistons team that is sitting at second place in the East. While they likely won’t remain there all season, they’ll definitely make the playoffs and the phenomenal play of Harris is a big part of that. The Pistons are currently 7-0 when Harris scores 20 or more points, which really speaks to the impact that he has on their team.
He was in a slump before breaking out for 31 points against the Celtics on Monday so hopefully you bought low when you could. He’s averaging a career high 19.1 points to go along with 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 2.9 3-pointers on .469 shooting from the field and .474 percent from behind the arc. He’s only averaging 0.7 turnovers so he’s not hurting you there and he’s attempting the most shots and 3-pointers of his career.
He’s credited his improved shooting to the LASIK eye surgery he got over the summer, so there’s no reason to believe that his percentages are a fluke. He’s currently posting top-30 value and vastly outperforming his ADP of 67.7 according to FantasyPros. He’s outperforming players such as John Wall, Myles Turner, Bradley Beal and Draymond Green and his owners were able to steal him much later than all of those players were taken.
Toby is firing on all cylinders this season and shows no signs of slowing down, if you were able to snag him in your drafts you should consider yourself lucky, and if you’re looking to acquire him he’s likely going to cost you more than you’re willing to give up.
JaMychal Green, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
Nothing is stable in Memphis right now with the firing of coach David Fizdale due to his apparent feud with Marc Gasol. However, with Chandler Parsons on and off of the injury report and Brandan Wright currently on the shelf, that leaves JaMychal Green without much competition for the starting power forward spot.
Since he’s returned he’s averaging 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.5 steals and 1.0 3-pointer while playing 27.8 minutes. Green is shooting .633 percent from the field and .462 from deep while attempting 1.9 threes per game. His minutes are bound to ramp up, and while a new coach could disrupt his rhythm I’d bank on him continuing to get better.
He isn’t a big blocks guy, but he’ll provide you with good field goal percentage and decent rebounds and points. To go along with that, Green will provide at least a 3-pointer a game, which is very useful if its coming from a big. He’ll flirt with a double-double almost every game while also having the ability to go off due to Grizzlies current lack of talent.
With the amount of time Green will be on the court as well as his opportunity, he’s a must-own player and she be viewed as a low-end big in leagues.
Derrick Favors, PF/C, Utah Jazz: Favors has taken full advantage of Rudy Gobert missing time and has been feasting ever since. Over his last five games Favors is averaging 19.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.8 blocks and 0.6 steals in 28.4 minutes on .709 percent shooting. Over the past week he’s putting up top-12 value and over the past two weeks he’s the 22nd ranked player. There’s no way he’s on your waiver wire but if he still is you should be running to pick him up because he looks like he’s going to be a monster as long as Rudy Gobert is missing time.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF, Los Angeles Lakers: KCP has been red hot lately, averaging 19.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.4 steals and 3.6 3-pointers in a whopping 36.7 minutes over the past five games. He’s been providing for owners in every category except steals and he’s even shooting a pretty decent percentage at .473 percent from the field. This is a prime sell-high window as his shooting numbers will regress, as they usually do. KCP owners knew that this time would come when they drafted him, when he’s hot he’s got top-50 upside but when he’s cold his value drops quite a bit. He’s the number 12 ranked player over the last five games and the 63rd ranked player over the entire season. Sell high now and don’t deal with the headache that he’ll be when he comes crashing back down to Earth.
Tyus Jones, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves: No one ever though that Tyus Jones would be fantasy relevant this season, but here we are. He’s been filling in for Jeff Teague who’s missed the last three games with an achilles injury. Over those three games he’s playing 37.0 minutes and averaging 9.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and an insane 4.0 steals on .476 percent from the field. Those stats are good enough to make Jones the 15th ranked player over his past three games and he’s been able to show his upside. Now of course the steals won’t be able to be kept up, but he should still be able to get you over 1.5 steals a game. Teague’s injury isn’t that serious and he should be back soon, but for as long as he’s sideline, Jones should be rostered.
Here are the “Stock Down” guys from last week with an update on how their stock has changed in the past week with “Stock Down” meaning they’re still falling, “Neutral” meaning their stock hasn’t changed and “Stock Up” meaning that they’re on the rise:
Myles Turner, C, Indiana Pacers: Neutral (Buy low now because he’ll be off of this list soon).
Eric Gordon, SG, Houston Rockets: Stock Down
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers: Stock Up
Norman Powell, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors: Stock Up
Josh Richardson, PG/SG/SF, Miami Heat: Neutral
Evan Fournier, SG/SF, Orlando Magic
Remember when Evan Fournier was putting up top-20 value in the first month of the season?
Yeah, well those days are long gone. Over the past two weeks he’s been outside the top-200, and while he won’t continue to be this bad its just an example of how you shouldn’t get too high on players that are over-performing in the beginning of the season.
The Magic have been bad lately, with Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic serving as the only Magic players you can really trust. Over the past four games Fournier is averaging 12.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists on .360 percent shooting. His value is based vastly on points and with his shot not falling right now he doesn’t even looked ownable in leagues.
However, theres no way he’ll be this bad. He’s currently the 43rd ranked player over the entire season and while that still might be too high, he’ll most likely still fall within the top-75. He doesn’t provide much in the form of assists, rebounds or blocks, but he’ll get some steals and definitely provide owners with points and threes.
If you can, he’s definitely worth buying low on due to the fact that he probably won’t be this bad for the rest of the season. If you can trade a player outside of the top-100 for Fournier it’s a no brainer, but just know that he’ll be s streaky shooter.
Avery Bradley, SG, Detroit Pistons
He had been on fire before hitting a thee game slump in which he’s averaging 11.0 points, 1.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.0 steal on .361 shooting from the field in 31.9 minutes.
Those numbers are putting Bradley outside of the top-250 throughout the past three games and this is shaping up to be a prime buy low window for Bradley. He proved his worth before this slump and he’s playing huge minutes, once he gets his shot back he’ll begin providing big value to his owners once again.
He’s attempting the most shots of his career at 14.2, but he’s grabbing a lot less boards with Andre Drummond crashing the glass. Along with the reduction in boards, he’s managed to severely raise his turnovers from the 1.6 he had last year to 2.7, which was never expected of Bradley.
If you’re punting turnovers Bradley turns into the 90th ranked player but even still thats underperforming. There was always going to be an adjustment period going to an entirely new team and playing with Reggie Jackson and Tobias Harris, two ball dominant players.
There’s no way he’ll be this bad all season and he could have a big second half if he can get his shot to fall and get adjusted, so throw out those buy-low offers now.
Zach Randolph, PF/C, Sacramento Kings
Randolph has been great since he and George Hill were told that they’re minutes will start to be restricted.
He’s posting top-80 value in his last four games and in only 25.5 minutes he’s averaging 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals. Those are great stats for a player who had an ADP of 87.7 and Z’Bo’s not completely washed up yet.
He has a 26.4 usage rate, which is currently above Kevin Love, Paul George, Karl Anthony-Towns and its clear that whenever Randolph is on the floor they plan to run it through him. The Kings are a mess, not knowing whether or not they want to play their veterans and hinder the development of their younger players, or give their young guns the keys to the franchise.
Until the Kings have a clear gameplan in mind, which they might not have all season, it’ll be hard to fully trust Randolph. However, it makes the most sense for the Kings to tank down the stretch and have better odds in the lottery and that process might even begin as soon as after the All Star Break, and if so it’ll be hard to see Z’BO getting many minutes.
I’d suggest selling high now while you still can, because while Randolph may be performing well now, he’ll end up hurting you when you need him the most.
Jonas Valanciunas: It seems as though everyone knows how much potential JV has except the Raptors themselves. He’s posting top-135 value over the entire season and just isn’t getting enough minutes to really be a fantasy beast. He’s only playing 20.1 minutes per game because the Raptors refuse to play him big minutes, even though he’d likely thrive in them. They’re wasting his talent and somehow he’s still averaging 10.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 0.6 blocks on .571 percent from the field. He’s definitely been underperforming, but it’s not his fault. Regardless, he’s still worth owning in leagues simply due to the scarcity of good big men as well as the upside he possesses.