August 18, 2020, 1:42 pm
By Steven Williams (Twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
The NBA Playoffs are here! I hope everyone played Donovan Mitchell last night…
Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic
Price at $10,500 – This price seems way too low. Orlando plays at the league’s slowest pace but Giannis has lit up the Magic for an average of 61 DK points in their matchups this year. Be wary of the high ownership, but I see no reason Giannis can’t return value at that low salary, even if it’s a blowout.
Price at $5,400 – Bledsoe will be the main beneficiary of poor D.J. Augustin and Markelle Fultz defense. His price has not quite caught up to his regular season production. This slate is poor in safe plays that are under $5,500.
The Magic do not have any high-priced players I like. Nikola Vucevic will be given plenty of usage, but this is not a great matchup for him. The Magic have a few inexpensive players that are worth consideration and can help fill out lineups with some high-priced players on this playoff slate.
Price at $4,200 – Fultz will be starting against the Bucks. He will have a tough defender on him in Bledsoe, but I expect him to handle the ball quite a bit. Fultz has not seen too much of an increase in usage without Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac in the lineup, but his price is so low he is tough to ignore.
Price at $3,400 – Ennis is certainly not going to be the sexy pick for the slate. He has quietly been scoring over 20 DK points per game for the last six games. Ennis will get minutes, and that’s all he needs to hit value at $3,400.
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
Price at $4,400 – Dragic has looked great since coming back to the team healthy for the Bubble part of the season. His lowest output has been 29 DK points.
Price at $7,600 – I LOVE Butler at $7,600. Butler eats up the Pacers; he averages 1.4 DK points per minute against this team. His history against the Pacers combined with his motivation to combat his nemesis, T.J. Warren, make for an excellent matchup.
Price at $6,800 –Brogdon is in the best spot of any Pacer. He is the only player that has played particularly well in this match-up. Brogdon averages 1.2 FPPM against this Heat team.
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
I will not be going nuts with Harden. Without Westbrook, Harden has a usage rate of 43.6%. That is difficult to ignore. That said, I think OKC might double-team him relentlessly. They would be wise to get the ball out of his hands and make the rest of the Westbrook-less Rockets beat them.
Price at $6,500 – I expect Covington to get over 40 minutes tomorrow. Covington accumulates DFS points across all categories and hits value when he plays minutes. I expect D’Antoni to run a short playoff rotation.
Price at $5,500 – Eric Gordon sees this largest bump in usage out of anyone on the team when Westbrook doesn’t play. The Rockets are going to need him to be a secondary creator. Gordon is risky, but capable of having big games.
Price at $6,100 – Gallo is my favorite play in this game. The entire Rockets team in 6’6″ and under. Gallo should be able to shoot over whoever he matches up with. He averages 40 DK points per game versus the Rockets this season.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have no one that can guard Davis & LeBron. Either one of these guys can have a monster game. LeBron knows he needs to get his teammates going to have a long playoff run. I expect him get his own but, look to set up teammates. Of the two, I prefer Davis.
Price at $10,400 – Davis averages 1.6 FPPM against the Blazers this year. He has a history of destroying the Blazers that goes back to his Pelicans days.
Price at $3,700 – The Blazers should be playing big tomorrow; this should bode well for Howard’s minutes. Howard is a great PPM producer and returns value any time he gets the minutes.
Price at $11,400 – What a price tag… Lillard crushes the Lakers. He averages over 60 DK points per matchup with the Lakers this season. He is on a tear. I will have Lillard in some of my lineups, but I prefer some of the other 10k+ plays on the day.
Price at $4,400 – Without Collins I expect that we will finally see some lineups with both Whiteside and Nurkic. If Whiteside can get 20-plus minutes he can smash that $4,400 price tag.