• The Lay Up Line: Monday August 24th, 2020

    By Brenton Eckersley (twitter: @terrain72)

    Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic

    DFS Picks (Note: DraftKings pricing)

    Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK)

    I’m honestly a little tentative playing any of the high-priced Bucks’ starters in this one, I have a feeling this could be done with early and that no one really has a chance to reach value. If I’m pushed to pick one though, I’ll always take Giannis… but proceed with caution. That’s a huge price tag to pay if the game blows out and there are better large salary guys further down the board.

    Brook Lopez ($5,200 DK)

    That’s a slight price drop and right around value for Brook. He’s only a salary saving GPP pivot play for me though, I’m not building lineups around him. I would just rather play him at the salary than someone like Khris Middleton here in a game that I think could easily get out of hand. That might allow us to get a couple of higher priced guys into our lineups further down. His last 4 DK returns have been 34.75, 15, 29.25 and 25.5 points. Take a look at that vs Eric Bledsoe’s last 4 returns – 16.6, 28.5, 28.5 and 37.25 but at a $700 more expensive tag than Lopez. Value, value, value. We must find value.

    Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DK)

    This is simply a pivot play away from Anthony Davis in the centre spot, if that’s how your lineups happen to build out. He dropped 62 DK points and 50 DK points in Games 1 & 2 vs the Bucks and if you think this stays closer than I do, he’s a good salary saver. He’s got the ceiling we’re looking for and could be a potential lineup winner if you think that you need the cash elsewhere. If you’re playing Davis though, I wouldn’t necessarily bother with Vuc. There’s enough value in this slate to allow you to go grab two big salary guys and leave him out of it altogether.

    DJ Augustin ($4,600 DK)

    I won’t go near Markelle Fultz or Evan Fournier as this matchup has continued on, but I will be looking for DJ in some of my lineups. Augustin has topped 34 DK points in 3 of his last 4 and has brought us great value with 34 DK points and 37 DK points in Games 1 & 3 vs the Bucks. Even during his bad night in the Game 2 blowout he gave us 19 DK points which is only just under value for this price. At this point in time, anything under $5500 DK dollars is way too cheap and you can keep rolling him out.

    James Ennis III ($4,400 DK)

    Still below value at that salary, and keep in mind that the low 3.5 DK points return last game out was due to an early ejection. Casual fantasy players may not pick up on that and avoid him because of a low rolling average. If you take a quick look back before Game 3, his last 4 DK games have returned us outings of 21.75, 25, 31 and 25 DK points – which is right around 6x value. Nice.

    Gary Clark ($4,100 DK)

    This completely hinges on Aaron Gordon’s availability to go in this one. At the time of writing this article, Gordon hasn’t played in the playoffs against the Bucks and is listed as questionable. During the time AG (and Jon Isaac) have been out, Clark has been a great value play, returning us 26.5, 18.75 & 25.5 DK points. If Gordon suits up, put a line through Clark and I wouldn’t want much to do with AG at $6700 either.

     

    Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

    James Harden ($11,700 DK)

    Harden is priced high and can always beat the salary, I just think if you’re paying up tonight then we have better options. Westbrook is still out though so there’s never a night where that’s the case and Harden is not in play… I just prefer spending elsewhere on this card.

    Danuel House Jr ($5,000 DK)

    I’m skipping Eric Gordon here at $1000 more and hoping that House continues the fantasy points production, mostly based on rebounding numbers (surprisingly). In his last two outings, he’s dragged down 9 and then 10 rebounds for the Rockets small ball lineup. His shooting is just fine as well, averaging close to .500 FG% in the last three. Luguentz Dort was all tied up with Harden in Game 3 so House should be free to take the kickout plays from James and shoot at will.

    Chris Paul ($8,000 DK)

    Chris Paul at $8000 in the playoffs vs Houston? Thanks, DraftKings. One of my favorite plays of the day. There are a couple of slightly cheaper plays at PG but not with CP3’s upside – he notched up 51 DK points in Game 1 and 45 DK points in Game 3. He is shooting at right around .500 FG%, hauling in boards every game and always offers assists and defensive stats as well. The Rockets/Thunder series is a tight one and I just don’t see how we can pass up Paul here.

    Danilo Gallinari ($6,100 DK)

    I like Danilo here, but only if Steven Adams (Questionable) sits. The offence all flows through CP3, SGA and Adams at the top of the key. If Adams can’t suit up, Gallinari should get a few more looks at the basket than he’s been getting. Decent cash play, I’ll probably leave him alone in GPPs though.

    Darius Bazley ($3,900 DK)

    Again, this is a “Steve Adams is out” play. The bulk of fantasy managers will look straight at Nerlens Noel here if Adams sits. In our podcast for this slate, you’ll have noticed that both Mike Apotria and I liked the Bazley play more. Don’t always look at the obvious centre-for-centre replacement, and keep in mind that you can play Bazley at the 4 or the 5 position on DraftKings. This is a great option to separate yourself from the herd in a DFS slate and gives you more versatility in approaching your lineups!

     

    Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

    Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 DK)

    I’m only mentioning Brogdon here as a fade for me. I’d rather take his Miami counterpart at $1000 less salary because on this slate I’m really working towards two bigger names in the last game. If you’re not targeting the two guys in the last matchup like I am, then Brogdon is completely fine to look at… I just believe that coming off a monster 68.75 DK points night, he may have high ownership and don’t forget – this is still the Miami Heat defense that we’re talking about.

    Myles Turner ($6,800 DK)

    The Indiana big man has finally started to perform (maybe too late for the Pacers). Turner has given us outings of 38.5 and 39 DK points in his last two and is actually averaging around 36 DK points in his last 4. He’s getting blocks at a high clip against the Heat (3,5 & 3) and is putting the ball in the bucket as well.  He’s not a GPP play for me, I’d rather look at Bam Adebayo in this game if you want upside but if Cash is your game, here’s a decent pivot play at the centre spot.

    Justin Holiday ($4,200 DK)

    Another Cash guy for me but definitely in play in that format. The Pacers have had to roll him out to try to stop Jimmy Butler (he’s not) and with the minutes comes the Cash play production. He’s never going to light the world on fire in terms of scoring but his FG% has been pretty good lately and he gets defensive stats for us as well. With his minutes in the last three coming in at 32, 29 and 32 – he should get to value every night at this price tag.

    Jimmy Butler ($8,100 DK)

    Right alongside Chris Paul as one of my fave plays on this card. $8100 for the beast that is Jimmy Buckets is low, just too low – especially when the Pacers just don’t have a defensive matchup for him. Last three outings against Indiana in this series: 48.75 DK points, 38.25 DK points, 48.5 DK points. Need me to go on? Sure… 50.75 DK points on the Pacers on August 10th. Lock and load.

    Goran Dragic ($6,500 DK)

    Kendrick Nunn continues to be a DNPCD in this series and that has simply unlocked Goran Dragic. The salary is creeping up slowly but he’s still in smash areas here for one more game at least against the Pacers. In Game 1 he gave us 42 DK points, in game 3 he gave us the same. He’s dragging boards down against the small Pacers lineup (which in earlier Layup Lines and podcasts I flagged has been happening on the regular), adding 5-6 assists every night and you can throw a few steals in as well. Goran is undoubtedly going to be high owned on this slate but with good reason and I don’t think you can fade that kind of production at that salary.

     

    Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers

    LeBron James ($10,800 DK)

    Here’s the match up where I’m spending up. LeBron is in beast mode and the best the Blazers can do is throw Gary Trent Jr at him defensively. Sure, he had a misfire in Game 2 of this series but on either side of that…. 73.25 DK points and then 68.5 DK points to bookend it. There’s not much else to say…

    Anthony Davis ($10,500 DK)

    I’m favoring LeBron over AD here, but if your line ups need you to pay up at the PF/C positions, go for it. Hasn’t gone under 52 DK points against the Blazers “defense” (even in only 29 minutes court time in the Game two blowout, wow) and AD will just continue to roll on through.

    Alex Caruso ($3,700 DK)

    I usually stay away from anyone outside of the above two guys on the Lakers squad, but give me a little spray of AC Fresh here. As Mike and I touched upon in our podcast, trying to work out who is going to hit their shots between Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will drive even the best fantasy managers to despair, so don’t even try. However, if the Lakers are going to roll Alex Caruso out for 27-29 mins a night like they have in 2 of the last 3 in this series, I’ll take a look. Not a huge look, but he will be low owned and is a pivot play away from some of the guys in this slate who will garner a lot of attention (Gary Clark, James Ennis, etc). This is a GPP dart in its truest form.

    Damian Lillard ($10,900 DK)

    I’m all in on Dame here and it’s all about narrative. The Blazers have basically been playing playoffs basketball since they entered the bubble and it’s starting to show. Their big man Jusuf Nurkic looks tired, with that time out of the game plus this schedule now taking its toll. CJ McCollum is hit and miss, Carmelo Anthony is… Carmelo Anthony – and it’s all on Dame’s shoulders. If you want any guy to stop the series slipping away, it’s this man. $10,900 is a high salary to pay, but I’m paying it. Given the value that’s on the board I’m going hard on Dame, pivoting between Lebron/AD and I can still get one of Jimmy and Goran into a high/low type of lineup. It’s Dame Time.

    Hassan Whiteside ($4,800 DK)

    Right at value here but has some serious upside. As I mentioned, Nurkic looks like he’s faltering and Hassan is a PPM monster. Absolutely no problems with Whiteside in this one, he could go big.

     

    Example DFS Lineup (Draft Kings)

    PG – LeBron James

    SG – Alex Caruso

    SF – James Ennis III

    PF – Danuel House Jr

    C – Darius Bazley

    G – Damian Lillard

    F – Gary Clark

    U – Goran Dragic

    ($700 left over)

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