August 26, 2020, 12:34 am
DFS Delivery: Wednesday August 26th, 2020
By Santino Caccone (twitter: @SantinoCaccone)
We’re on to the back-half of the Game 5 slates, and we have both number one seeds looking to close out their overmatched opponents, and the best series of the first round between the Thunder and Rockets. It’s going to be a fun night of basketball with a lot of starpower. As always we are using DraftKings pricing, as it is widely available in more areas around the globe.
Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks
Nikola Vucevic ($9,200 DK)
The top pure C on the docket is also a solid play here, but one you can really only afford if you are going with the avoid the stars route. It’s tough to do so, unless you’re making quite a few lineups, though the massive dropoff in C options does give this route some life. Vooch has played extremely well this series topping 60 points in two of four games. The matchup works well for him and without Isaac or Gordon, he’s getting fed extra usage in this frontcourt.
Evan Fournier ($5,400 DK)
I was on the Fournier train in the last game and he finally brought us back value in the series. With that said, it wasn’t because his shot suddenly started to fall as he again had a poor showing shooting 4-of-14 from the field. At this price tag he remains in play again in hopes that eventually his shot is going to fall.
Markelle Fultz ($5,100 DK)
Fultz had his best game in the blowout game four. That also coincided with 31 minutes and 15 shot attempts. Both were series’ highs. The matchup isn’t great as the Bucks give up threes but clampdown in the paint, but it was nice to see that Fultz may still get the run in the event that this game turns into a blowout, which is likely.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) & Kris Middleton ($7,800)
The only guys I’d be looking at on the Bucks are the two big guys. If you are going in another direction than Harden, whether it’s because of the expected massive ownership or for positional eligibility because the guards on this slate are of better values, then Giannis is the pivot. If you don’t go Giannis and want exposure to this team, then Middleton, who has been playing better with crisp three-point shooting the past two games is at a nice price tag. In a game that could get out of hand, there’s not much else to trust on this team right now.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
Chris Paul ($8,100), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,400), and/or Dennis Schroder ($6,400)
I’m lumping all three guards in one, as they have all been balling lately and are all great options. In a pivotal game 5 with the series tied at two apiece, against a team that plays small-ball, they’ve all been playing heavy minutes. SGA has seen 94 minutes over the past two games, and as such would be my top choice with a very fair priced Schroder slightly behind. Paul has played no less than 37 minutes in any game this series, so he is by no means a distant third even with the biggest price tag of the three.
Luguentz Dort ($4,200)
With the way the slates made up, we are going to have to find value somewhere to pay up elsewhere. Insert Dort, who has played 71 minutes over the past two games and is an integral part of the team’s gameplan in attempting to slow down James Harden. There aren’t many guys, if any, near 4K who are seeing this type of run and in the game of the night, we can expect that trend to continue. Dort isn’t a play to get his ceiling, but he’s hit value over the last two games, and if you need to squeeze in this price tag to fill out a lineup you otherwise are extremely happy with, you won’t be finding this type of workload elsewhere.
James Harden ($11,800 DK)
I’ve been saying it all series, so keep it on your mind, the Thunder have held James Harden to below James Harden standards as much as one could throughout the season. Harden has averaged 54.4 DraftKings points per game over the 7 games against the Thunder this season, and 60.9 points during the series with no Russell Westbrook. With all that said, Harden is as safe as it gets, even with the tag. 60 points looks to be the floor in this one, with the upside to break the slate wide open. With this being the one competitive series’ on the docket, Harden also has the safest floor for minutes among his other high-priced peers.
Jeff Green ($5,600)
With the way this slate is set up at the C position, I find myself landing on Green pretty much every time. There is just a massive gap in pricing that there aren’t many other options to choose from, and he has the highest upside outside of the big three. The matchup suits him well with his ability to space the floor, and he’s seeing nearly 35 mpg in this series.
Danuel House Jr. ($5,500)
House has been playing great the past few games as he has shook off the toe injury that plagued him in game one. That injury is well in the background, as evidenced by the whopping nearly 40 mpg he’s played in games 2-4. The size advantage that he has over Dennis Schroder in the Thunder’s small-ball lineup, has afforded him to rack up 25 boards during that stretch. We should expect House to go over 30 DraftKings points for a fourth straight game with the type of run he is getting.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers
CJ McCollum ($8,100)
With No Lillard around, we can expect a surge in usage to over 33 percent for McCollum. That type of usage is going to certainly make him a viable play, and it’s also going to make him highly owned. The fear is that this game could get out of hand quickly and with McCollum having a bad back, coach Stotts may opt to make it an early night for him. Outside of the scoreboard and gameflow concerns, and speaking purely from a production standpoint, McCollum is set up to succeed in this one.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,900)
Skinny Melo is another guy staring at a big bump in usage, and Melo has never been shy about letting it fly under these circumstances. In what will be the last game played for the Blazers this year Melo will be looking to go out with a bang. Let’s remember that he was out of the league for roughly a year, and was only given a shot when the Blazers got decimated with injuries. Look for Melo to be showing out to leave no doubts in the minds of league executives that he deserves another contract this winter (that’s weird to type). He doesn’t come with the same degree of concerns as McCollum as he should play even if it’s a blowout, and it’s because of that that he is one of my favorite plays of the night.
Anfernee Simons ($4,000)
I mentioned Dort as an option around 4K, and Simons fits that same bill. Without Lillard, the Blazers aren’t going to be playing beyond tonight. Also without Lillard, means there is extra run to go around for the athletic Simons. Simons was seeing minutes in the teens before last game and that jumped up to 25 with Lillard ailing in the last one. He only shot 1-of-8 from the field, but managed to grab five rebounds and dish out six assists, showing that he can produce if given the run. I’m ready to let him into the majority of my lineups at this price tag, in a good matchup, and the chance to be playing against backups for a good chunk of minutes if this game turns ugly.
LeBron James ($10,800) & Anthony Davis ($10,500)
The Lakers live and die by the two big guys, and that isn’t going to change in this one. They’re both in play, but again, without Lillard, they both have the obvious risk of a short night of work. Davis is coming off a game in which he played only 18 minutes, but he said he’s good to go. I’d lean towards LeBron, but Davis’ Center eligibility gives him the positional edge.
Dwight Howard ($3,800)
It could be a Kyle Kuzma kind of night with the expected blowout coming, but he could easily get the rest treatment with the two superstars. Howard on the other hand would still be on the court for a little bit in that circumstance. He’s not someone to actively target, but if you are stuck with under 4K with your last spot, he’s okay to look at. He has the playing time advantage against JaVale McGee in this series, and his propensity to grab rebounds and strong field goal percentage help keep him around the 5X value return. Just don’t expect much more.