October 2, 2020, 1:26 pm
Miami-Lakers Showdown Game 2: By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
Dissecting the likely new Miami rotation
With Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo doubtful for the game, the Miami Heat head into game 2 limping without 2 of their best players and more important offensive options. The Miami depth was already not great and you’re now forcing guys who haven’t played very much throughout the playoffs (Kelly Olynyk, Kendrick Nunn) into monster roles on the biggest stage.
They can survive the Dragic loss a little easier than they can the Bam loss. Kendrick Nunn was a productive starter (25.86 DKFP in 29.3 MPG), but I don’t know how they can recover defensively without Bam on opposing bigs or getting him matched up with Davis. There’s serious volatility in this game, which we can take advantage of in tournament teams as people won’t want to embrace it. My guess at the rotation:
Starters: Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Olynyk
Bench: Andre Iguodola, Tyler Herro, Derrick Jones Jr/Solomon Hill
For closing lineup, I think they turn to: Nunn, Herro, Jimmy, Iguodola, Crowder
All of which is a pretty desperate position to be in going against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, these value plays of Iguodola ($3,400), Olynyk ($3,000) and Nunn ($5,000) become some of the better cheap values we’ve had the entire playoffs, which let’s us build pretty much any roster construction we want.
Regardless of what route you take, your lineup needs to include Anthony Davis and LeBron James in it for cash games. With all the value, they’re affordable in any build and their upside just isn’t matched by anyone on Miami in a -9.5 point spread where another blowout is very possible (spread was -4.5 the first game with the Heat fully healthy). Even with the excellent value, my initial lean is to keep them in the flex positions and be able to easily add Jimmy Butler to the roster with his increased playmaking role and USG expected for this game 2.
Tyler Herro makes sense as the third spend as well off Jimmy. I think he’ll have a longer leash if the game gets out of hand and I expect a massive increase in playmaking and shot creation from Herro in this game. There’s a really great construction with Herro as the captain, LeBron, Davis and all the values plays that I’m strongly considering. Just know that Herro or Jimmy in the captain slot is embracing some of the highest variance on the slate because you’re thinking this game stays relatively close where they can get 33+ minutes at a minimum.
As stated above, Olynyk ($3,000), Nunn ($5,000) and Iguodola ($3,400) should all be in line for role and minute increases in this game as excellent cheap value. They’ll all be very popular, but there’s not much room around playing at least 2 of these guys if you want to fit Davis and LeBron on the same team. Let other people make mistakes and just play them.
I alluded to it earlier, but my two favorite captains are Herro and Jimmy Butler – if this game stays close, it’s because one (or both) of these guys are going absolutely nuclear shooting the ball. With all the strong value, people will gravitate towards LeBron and Davis as strong captain options, but there’s room to be more creative in tournaments around LeBron and Davis to build a winning GPP team.
It’s highly unlikely that a winning GPP team doesn’t include Davis and LeBron, so rotating the Heat players around them in the flex and captain spot is my favorite way to differentiate. Herro, Crowder, or Jimmy just won’t garner the ownership with people scared of the blowout.
That’s it! This is a much better slate than we’ve seen in recent weeks with the excellent value plays opening up making good unique tournament builds actually possibly. Please let me know if you have any questions on my twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!