October 9, 2020, 11:10 am
Miami Heat vs Lakers Showdown Game 5: By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
Working through a solved slate:
The biggest takeaway I’ve had from playing these playoff slates is that they all follow a similar pattern. In the first few games, people struggle to find the right optimal lineup and then struggle later in the series to find the right lower-owned pivots once the optimal construction is solved. This will be something to remember for next season and hopefully should be able to take advantage of in earlier playoff series.
For tomorrow, this pattern is likely to follow the same path as the last few games: Butler, Davis and LeBron will make up a majority of teams and people will cycle through the same value plays (Nunn, Olynyk, Morris, Caruso, Howard, etc) in order to make the top 3 plays work. So how do we be different?
Jimmy Butler has been incredible the last three games and should once again be the top owned captain for this slate. He’s played 43, 45, 45, minutes in the past 3 games, he’s been a constant triple double threat with 9, 13, 10 assists and he’s still cheaper than Davis by $1,000 and LeBron by $1,600 despite his performance. If you’re playing cash games, he’s going to be the best option for your captain position.
But in tournaments, there’s a significant ownership edge to be gained with three pivots off of him:
Anthony Davis $11,800
Davis will still garner ownership, but I think he’ll come in a distant third behind Jimmy and LeBron, which is exactly what we’re hoping for with Davis and his upside. He’s been muted in the finals thus far (47.44 DKFP) and in USG (24.5%). The long-term upside of Davis is always present for him though and taking advantage of recency bias that Davis has been “bad” will give you a chance to solo-win a tournament
Tyler Herro ($9,000)
Once again, Tyler Herro brings potential slate winning upside, even at this elevated price tag. He’s going to be on the floor for a majority of the game, he’s going to have shot creation and ball-handling responsibility and we’ve seen ceiling performances from him throughout the playoffs. The increased price-tag is tough, but it’s just going to lower ownership on him, especially in the captain spot. Capitalize on players recency bias and focus in on a high upside play like Herro so you aren’t splitting a tournament win 100 different ways.
Markieff Morris ($3,600)
It seems Markieff has taken over for Howard after starting the 2nd half in game 4 and playing 30 total minutes. He wasn’t productive in the slightest with only 16.8 DKP, but only shot 2-8 from the field. At $3,600, he’s going to be my favorite value of the day, regardless if he starts or not. It makes sense as Dwight doesn’t really have anyone to guard and they’re entirely comfortable using a combination of Davis, LeBron and Morris to guard Bam. He also matches up better with Jae Crowder than Davis or Howard do.
It’s not pretty, but these plays are absolutely necessary with everyone receiving a price-hike. If he does indeed start, there’s viability for him in the captain spot as well.
Kendrick Nunn ($4,000)
After an excellent first 2 games, Nunn has come down to earth with only 12 DKP in 26 minutes. His USG was there though taking 11 shots, but only making 2 of them. His playing time is going to be directly correlated with how well he’s playing; Miami needs offense wherever they can find it. If Nunn is shooting/playing well, he’s got a good chance to get into the 30’s. If not, he’ll be in the low 20’s.
Kelly Olynyk ($3,000)
I went back to the Kelly O well in game 4, thinking he’d have a minimum 15 minute floor and they might look to get him on the court with Bam for some run. My thinking was he played too well in game 3 and game 4. Unfortunately, it did not turn out that way and I got burned.
In tournaments you can go back here as Kelly O is an excellent FPPM producer if he can get to 18 minutes or if something happens to Bam injury wise. But I’ll be looking elsewhere for cash games and for any 3-max, single entry tournament teams.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,600)
Pope is a little expensive to be considered a value on this slate, but I think including him in a flex position will give you a good chance at a more unique construction. The minutes have been incredibly consistent in the low 30’s and he’s shot incredibly poorly over the past 3 games (6-22 from 3) leaving some potential upside on the table. Look here as a flex play in tournaments.