September 17, 2020, 12:05 am
Boston-Miami Showdown Strategy: By: Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports) on Twitter
Who to captain?
While this slate is going to be lower-scoring overall with two excellent defensive teams, we have two teams where 5 or 6 guys can be the highest scoring player on the slate and we’re not paying the exorbitant price of a LeBron James or a James Harden. All of these guys have a chance to be the highest scoring player on the slate:
Jayson Tatum ($10,400)
Jimmy Butler ($9,200)
Bam Adebayo ($8,800)
Jaylen Brown ($8,600)
Kemba Walker ($8,200)
Goran Dragic ($7,800)
Marcus Smart ($7,600)
Tyler Herro ($7,000)
With this in mind, paying down at our captain spot so we can capture the most potential upside in our normal spots makes this most sense for tournaments. There are outs for any of the above players to be the highest scoring player on the slate. And with everyone so close together in price, cycling through these potential captain spots in quality lineups shouldn’t be too difficult. My top 4 captain slots for tournaments:
Kemba, Herro, Smart, Dragic
In cash games, my strong lean is towards Tyler Herro ($7,000) as your captain spot. He’s earned the trust of this Miami coaching staff and has become a key component to their closing lineup. He’s only played below 30 minutes twice in the entire playoffs and he’s showing tremendous upside with his passing and rebounding, culminating in a near triple double of 12 points, 9 assists, 11 rebounds in game 1 vs Boston. I’m betting on his role increasing as the series goes on and him continuing to eat into Duncan Robinson’s minutes if Robinson isn’t making shots early.
There’s not much down here, but you’re likely going to have to play at least one player from this tier. Wanamaker is coming off the massive 5 steal game in 24 minutes in game 1, which is obviously a big outlier and won’t be repeated. But he did play the entire OT when Theis fouled out and at $2800, if you can get 18+ minutes, it’s not the worst play to make.
Robert Williams is by far the better FPPM producer than Wanamaker, but his minutes floor is scary low. I’d look to Wanamaker for showdown cash, but think Williams as a tournament pivot makes sense if Theis gets in early foul trouble and they need Williams for 15+ minutes. Just know, you’re getting like a 5-7 minute floor here.
Duncan Robinson at $4800 is in play in tournaments as his playing time is fairly binary: if he’s hitting 3’s early, he’ll get extended playing time. If not, he’s going to lose his playing time to Herro. Work him in your tournament builds, but I would avoid any Herro in the captain and Robinson teams as they’ll be negatively correlated with each other.
Mike Apotria and I hit some quick thoughts on the podcast and we will have content about the game tomorrow as well. But for those of you wanting to play the 2-game, I’ll post some quick thoughts to help you break it down:
-Tatum is my favorite tournament spend over LeBron, Davis and Jokic. He’s the cheapest of the bunch and everyone is going to gravitate towards the later game studs.
– Herro, Millsap, Grant, Rondo and Harris are going to be your best cash game value plays. You don’t have to play all of them, but these are the guys you should be working in.
-This slate works reasonably well for both cash games and tournaments. A lot of solid value in the late game makes 2-stud cash game builds possible. And you’re going to get lower ownership on guys in the Miami-Boston game when they probably shouldn’t be.
– Ranking the studs for cash: LeBron-Jokic-Tatum-Davis
– Rankings the studs for tournaments: Tatum-Jokic-Davis-LeBron
– With Denver always having a real C on the floor and Jokic playing 38+ minutes a game, expect Javale and Dwight to fully be back in the rotation. Maybe not to their regular season levels, but you probably get 12-15 minutes out of each of them in this series.
– In turn, I expect far less Morris in this series, if he gets off the bench at all. He was a good value vs Houston, but he’s out of play at least in game 1 until I actually see him maintain his role over the 2 Centers.
That’s it! I’m hoping we can develop a really strong showdown strategy during the last few series in the playoffs and find a way to profit off weaker opponents. Please let me know if you have any questions on twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!