September 25, 2020, 11:12 am
Miami-Boston Showdown Strategy:
By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
Can we play Tyler Herro again?
Tyler Herro is coming off one of the best rookie performances we’ve seen in the playoffs in a long time with a 37 point, 6 rebound, 3 assist performance on 14-21 shooting. Amazing. Coming up on this slate, we’re very likely to see massive ownership head his way as his game is going to be fresh in everybody’s mind.
He did see a big price hike ($6,600 to $7,800) and you’re now paying a similar price tag for Herro that you are for Dragic ($8,200) Kemba ($8,800) and he’s now more expensive than Marcus Smart ($7,200) and Gordon Hayward ($6,400). In cash games, he’s still a perfectly viable option with his locked in minutes role of 33+ a game and being a primary offensive creator when he’s on the floor. In tournaments however, I’d lean towards fading him completely and betting on lower ownership from the other guys in this tier. I love Herro and his game, but if I can get an ownership edge playing Smart, Kemba, Hayward and Dragic, I’d prefer that route at these price-tags.
The last game gave us Herro as the cheapest rotation player for someone who actually shoots the ball (Looking squarely at your Mr. Daniel Theis), to put in the captain spot while still allowing us to jam in a bunch of the studs from this slate. With the Herro price-up, that build isn’t viable anymore with Herro, but another lead play has potentially arisen with Hayward at $6,400. He received an $800 price decrease despite playing 30 minutes in his first 2 starts back and scoring 26.25 and 27.75 DKP respectively. They might not overextend him much further than 30 minutes, but I think at this point, we can rely on 28-30 minutes as a solid minutes floor for him.
Putting him at captain lets you get back to Tatum, Bam and Jimmy as a core in the flex spots. Also opens up opportunities to go back to Herro or Smart or more balanced with Theis and Crowder in that build.
Tatum at captain has been the prevailing build in cash games for good reason; he by far has the highest upside of anyone on these two teams. I think it makes more sense to save money and continue to try to stack a more quality overall team rather than expensive Tatum and sketchier cheap plays.
Who to Captain?
I talked about Hayward as captain in the lineup construction section and he’ll be my favorite play in both formats. He makes too much sense on this slate where we need a cheaper rotation player to create lineups with a better floor/ceiling combo.
If looking for ownership leverage, Dragic, Kemba, Smart, Brown and even Jimmy are going to be lower owned captains. Most of the ownership will concentrate around Tatum and Bam as it’s been all series while Herro will get the game log watchers to chase him.
Robert Williams ($2,600)
If you’re going below Duncan Robinson at $4800 on this slate, Robert Williams is my favorite punt with how this series is playing out and how poorly Theis is playing defending Bam. Theis new offensive role has been to stand in the corner to stay out of the way of drivers into the paint. He’s had 0 success defending Bam defensively. That leads me to think we could see a more extended look at Robert Williams who has more athleticism and energy to stick with Bam tighter on defense. Williams has always been a tremendous FPPM player, so if we can get him to 13-15 minutes, he’s very much in play at $2,600 to jam in everyone else.
In a similar fashion to last night’s game where Howard replaced McGee in the starting 5 and people were slow to react (Howard only 50% in the flex, when he should have been 100%), I could see scenarios where Stevens starts Williams in this one to change up their defensive look against Bam. It’s a pure guess on my part and I don’t know if Stevens would be willing to give up on Theis starting, but it’s still something to keep in mind with how bad Theis has been.
The 10-second Cliff Notes:
Herro is still playable in all formats, despite the price-hike, but I’d look elsewhere in tournaments at likely high captain ownership.
Hayward is my favorite captain for cash games and tournaments to fit in everyone else.
Robert Williams is completely viable in all formats and is the only player I like below Duncan Robinson at $4,800
That’s it! A little more complicated of a slate as pricing gets tighter as the series moves on, but this game has always been more conducive to building good showdown teams than the Denver-Laker game. Please let me know if you have any questions (@AsmusSports) on twitter. I’d be happy to discuss the slate or anything else related to DFS with you! Best of luck