November 17, 2017, 12:37 pm
It is Friday, November 17 and we have a fully loaded 11 game slate on our hands. Before we dive into the value on the slate I would like to point out the assumptions I made heading into the slate.
- I am expecting Ricky Rubio to sit out with his sore Achilles. He is listed as questionable now, so it is something to keep an eye out for.
- I love a lot of the Hornets tonight, but only mention one. This is because I fear a blowout can happen with the team back at full strength. If you’re making multiple line ups I would look to get exposure between some of their starters.
- I am expecting Norman Powell to miss another game and Delon Wright to be ruled out after dislocating his shoulder. This would open up a ton of minutes between Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and C.J Miles. Two of the three should see 20+ minutes.
Dennis Smith Jr. $6,000– DSJ has been playing great as of late and over his last four games is averaging 33 minutes per game. These teams just faced off earlier this month and we saw DSJ lead the team in scoring with 18 points in 26 minutes. No Mavs starter had played more than 29 minutes that night (Harrison Barnes) because of a blowout, but we had DSJ get run in the fourth quarter leading me to believe his minutes should be fairly safe regardless.
Spencer Dinwiddie $5,500– There is no secret with the Dinwiddie play tonight. He will be chalk. With D’Angelo Russell expected to be sidelined for a while, Dinwiddie has stepped into a 35 minute role. In his last start he put up 12 points, 11 assists and 3 rebounds for 35.75 DK points. You don’t need to think about this one too much and he’s going to be hard to fade.
Rajon Rondo $4,400 (GPP only)- This one is strictly if you like being sneaky in GPP’s. Rondo returned last game and played only 14 minutes but accumulated 20 DK points. He is now expected to play an extra 5-6 minutes which may not seem like a lot, but for a guy who can rack up counting stats quickly it is. Don’t expect to much in limited minutes, but at $4,400, 25 DK points is certainly obtainable.
Devin Booker $7,800-The Suns get a great matchup versus the Lakers tonight, one that never disappoints. The Suns experimented last night letting Booker run point guard with out a true point guard on the floor. This could only increase his value going forward. More time handling the ball can equal more shots; more assists and tonight he may see some time against a weak Lonzo Ball defense.
Donovan Mitchell $6,500– I’m expecting Rubio to sit out this game. A sore Achilles isn’t something teams generally want to mess with, especially when they’re already missing their All-Star center in Rudy Gobert. I absolutely love this game and will be all over it. Mitchell has been getting the minutes and shots and now gets to face one of the fastest paced/worst defensive teams in the league. Many will be scared off by his price tag, but I think he has 40 DK point upside tonight.
Jordan Clarkson $5,100– Clarkson wants the 6th man of the year award. He’s averaging 27 DK points over his last 10 games and dropped a cool 39 DK points in the last game against the Sixers. When Lonzo Ball struggles, which seems to be more often than not, Clarkson sees extra time. Over the last two games Clarkson has attempted 21 and 19 shot attempts. If we can get that sort of usage at $5,100 in a great matchup we have to give it a look.
Allen Crabbe $4,400– This game should stay small again and Crabbe was another beneficiary of Russell sitting out. In that game Crabbe dropped 29 DK points. Pairing these Nets players is going to be tricky, but at this point everyone in the starting lineup is in play.
T.J. Warren $6,500– Warren licks his chops every time he sees the Lakers on his calendar. In two games this year Warren is averaging 23.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 37 minutes per game. He feasts, plan and simple. At $6,500 35 DK points seem like a lock and that is a great value and way to get exposure to this fast paced game.
Rodney Hood $5,400– For the same reasons I like Mitchell, I like Hood. The man took 20 shots last game. That’s 20 shots and he is playing Nets. Sign me up. I don’t know If I would play Mitchell and Hood in the same lineups, because there is another Jazz forward I will be getting to shortly, who is a lock in all my lineups.
DeMarre Carroll $5,600– Carroll was the guy other than Dinwiddie I expected to absorb a large chunk of Russell’s usage. It seemed like an off game. He shot 3-of-10 from the field, didn’t have a block or a steal and dished zero assist. He managed only 20 DK points, but let’s figure he gets a block and a steal and hits a few more shots we are at 30 DK points very quickly. Not to mention, a little revenge narrative for Carroll as he played for the Jazz early in his career.
Nicolas Batum $6,000– He’s back. Batum was expected to only play 20 minutes in his first game back, but ended up playing 32 minutes. There is a lot to love in this matchup and those who have been playing DFS for sometime now know Batum at 6K is far too cheap.
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,000-LMA is simply in a great spot. He will draw a mismatch regardless of who OKC throws on him. Even if Adams plays, LMA will stretch him out for easy knockdowns. George or Melo can’t cover him in the post and I truly believe we are going to see Jerami Grant attempt to guard him as well. This matchup has 50 DK point upside written all over it.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $6,000- You can probably tell I am all over this game. I expect it to be close and the starters to get big run. RHJ is not known for his scoring, but with Russell out he is going to have to take 12+ shots. What he is known for is his ability to rack up defensive and counting stats.
Taj Gibson $5,300-If the Gorgui is forced to sit again look for Thibs to funnel Gibson minutes. When these two teams faced off on November 4, Gibson absolutely destroyed the Mavs for almost 40 DK points in 31 minutes. The Mavs cannot rebound and while I love Towns in this spot as well, I think I may opt for the guy with 40 point upside at 4k less.
Derrick Favors $5,600– Like with Dinwiddie, do not think about this one too much. He obliterated the Nets in their last matchup, was drafted by Nets and will surely see 30+ minutes at center with Gobert out. He is going to be an extremely hard fade tonight.
Andre Drummond $8,900– Drummond gets the Pacers tonight and recently the Man he will be matched up against, Myles Turner, has said he is still feeling some effects from his concussion earl in the season. Drummond had his best rebounding game of the year against this team with 21 rebounds. I do not love this price, but if you are looking to spend up he’s the guy I’d go with. There is 20-20 upside on any given night.
Greg Monroe $4,100- Ahh, for those who follow me on Twitter you would have seen me call this B.S after lineups locked. “Monroe is going to play 28 minutes tonight for no reason other than sinking lineups.” I was off by two minutes, but for real, why? Nonetheless, at his price if he is going to see 25+ minutes he is a must-play. The matchup is a great on against the Lakers as he should have his way down low. It worries me that he only played one game since returning from his calf soreness and now they are on a back to back. He is going to be very chalky, but if the Suns want to showcase the big man before I trade, this is a great matchup to do it in.
DeAndre Jordan $6,800– Jordan has had me tilting the past week. Throw last game against Embiid and the Sixers out. Foul trouble on the league’s most skilled big man doesn’t worry me. The Cavs do not have a body that can bang down low with Jordan and I expect them to try and throw Channing Frye at him. I Think we are looking at a nice 33-35 DK point night from Jordan.
Play 4k and under
George Hill $4,000– This game is a dangerous one. Everyone is priced pretty fairly, but has all the makings to be a blowout. If the Kings could not hang with the Hawks, I don’t see them hanging with the Blazers. That being said Hill still has value at 4k. He only needs low 20’s minutes to accumulate that production and if for some strange reason this game stays close than expected could see close to 30 minutes. Let’s remember these are the Kings and their coach is Dave Joerger so temper expectations and limit Hill to GPP’s.
OG Anunoby $3,800– We don’t get that minimum salary like last week, but it is not the second half of a back to back so I think OG’s minutes are safe. The Raptors may not run him 30 minutes again, but mid-upper 20’s seem like a guarantee.
Fred VanVleet $3,000– Sneaky, sneaky. With Powell out and Wright now sidelined because of a shoulder dislocation, Vanfleet will step into the backup point guard and shooting guard role. There is a lot worse you can do than VanVleet if looking for a min salary punt.
Channing Frye $3,400– Lue said he is going to be looking to get Frye more minutes and they are going to need all the bigs they have tonight against the Clippers and DeAndre Jordan. But where Frye can take advantage of this matchup is from the outside. It will be hard for Frye not to make value tonight.
Jamal Murray $4,900- Murray always has the potential to blow up on any given night. The Nuggets face of against the Pelicans and if they want to keep this game close they will have to get good looks beyond the arc. Strictly a GPP option.
Lonzo Ball $7,300– I was really hoping for a bigger discount after last game, but Ball still has triple-double upside. Everyone will be down on him and that price, but Ball is in a good bounce-back spot against the Suns.
Nikola Jokic $8,100– This is just too cheap for the Joker. He draws one of the tougher defensive matchups for a big, but for that same reasons he will be forced into big minutes. If Jokic can stay out of foul trouble he has the chance of flashing his 50-point upside at only $8,100.