April 20, 2018, 2:48 pm
Welcome back to another Friday edition of Hoop-Ball’s DraftKings DFS breakdown. I will be going through the three playoff games on tonight’s slate picking out my favorite value plays to target. Tonight is a little different than any other playoff slate we have had thus far as we seem to have an abundance of possible value. I am here to help decipher which of these value plays are safe and which ones we will be using in our GPP’s. Right now, it looks like we have enough value to fit two studs, but we will have to wait and see if the news falls our way. Let’s not waste any more time and jump right into my favorite plays.
Ty Lawson $3,500– There is a ton of risk that comes with Lawson, as he only saw his first action with the Wizards last game. What puts him in play is that he played a whopping 31 minutes and was the main guard playing behind both John Wall and Bradley Beal. It seems like the Wizards are trying to get some veteran experience off of the bench and even if he only plays in the twenties he is still in play. Like I said I wouldn’t go locking in Lawson 100 percent, but he is definitely one of the more intriguing value plays available and I will have a fair share.
Darren Collison $5,300– I have been riding Collison this whole series waiting for that 40-point game. He has now had back-to-back games with six assists and five rebounds and played over 30 minutes in both. Collison has a solid floor in this matchup, with the upside to win a GPP at his price.
Kyle Korver/J.R. Smith $4,000/$4,100– The Cavs switched up their staring lineup last game and placed better shooters around LeBron James. Korver and J.R. Smith both played over thirty minutes, with Korver having the better game. Tonight they are both very much in play and only $100 apart. The Cavs should run out the same starting lineup and with Kevin Love nursing a sore thumb (X-rays came back negative) I expect players like Korver and Smith to be relied upon even more. I wouldn’t play both in the same lineup; while they could both get hot they eat into each other’s value.
Eric Bledsoe $6,300– After talking a bunch of junk about Terry Rozier we have to imagine Bledsoe comes out ready to back it up tonight. He is severely underpriced after a string of rough performances, but the Bucks are down 2-0 and I expect their stars to come out and log heavy minutes with high usage. Bledsoe has looked slightly off lately, but at this price he makes for a strong GPP option.
C.J. Miles $3,700- Throughout his career Miles has been that GPP dart throw that could win you a contest. Fred VanVleet is currently being treated as questionable heading into the game and I would not be surprised to see him sit this one out. If he does I expect more run for Miles and Delon Wright, especially if Wizards head coach Scott Brooks intends on playing small like he hinted following the Game 2 loss. This would bode well for both Miles and Wright as we have seen the Raptors run plenty of three-guard lineups throughout the season. We are going to have to monitor the situation as best as possible and Miles is by no means a safe play, but he is cheap enough to take a shot on and provides elite value when he gets hot from three. Ill say it again, GPP play only.
Otto Porter $5,300– Porter is another guy who is underpriced in a must win game. Wizards’ head coach Scott Brooks hinted at lineup changes after Tuesday’s loss and the primary move would be starting Mike Scott over Marcin Gortat. Porter thrives in small ball lineups and while I would prefer to spend up for one of the studs I wouldn’t be upset if Porter was the final guy to round out my lineup.
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,600– The spectacular play from LeBron has overshadowed how great the Greek Freak has been this series. The Bucks are trailing in the series and Giannis has shown in the past he could go full LeBron mode and take over a game. John Henson is being listed as doubtful and that may earn Giannis some minutes at center. It looks like we will have some value on the slate to fool around with and spending up with the Greek Freak feels like the way to go.
Mike Scott $3,800– As mentioned before, Brooks hinted at a change to the starting lineup heading into Game 3 and the move would be Scott starting at center for Gortat. He would immediately be one of the primary sources of value on the slate. The game doesn’t start until 8 p.m. EST and lineups lock at 7 p.m. EST, which means we are not guaranteed to have the news ahead of lock. To me, this is good news. I would rather take the shot and hope he goes low-owned in a situation that he could absolutely crush value. Even if Scott does not start the implication that Brooks hinted at the change bodes well for his playing time. If we do not have the news I would only limit my exposure to GPP’s.
LeBron James $11,600-It’s LeBron James and he is mad. Do I really need to say more? He is proving why he is the best in basketball and he has no problem taking control of this series. I have no problem locking LeBron into lineups tonight, but the way Giannis has been playing at a slightly discounted salary makes me think contemplate it; then again we may have enough value for both.
Tyler Zeller $2,800– With John Henson (back) being listed as doubtful we have to look at the next rim protector in line. Zeller falls below $3,000 and if he can log even 20 minutes should be a lock for value. The Bucks may opt to run smaller lineups which makes Jabari Parker viable at $4,400, but Parker has also been in the doghouse and I doubt his recent comments to the media help his case. As of now I m leaning toward playing Zeller for the discount, but I will have some shares of Parker in the lineups that do not.
Myles Turner-$5,700– The Cavs have not really had an answer for Turner thus far and it seems like they are okay with that. They have been trotting out small ball lineups and the only person who could really put a body on Turner, Tristan Thompson, has played 1.6 minutes in the past two games. I think I’d prefer the floor of Henson to Turner, but if I have the extra money I would shoot for Turner’s upside.
Malcolm Brogdon $4,800– Henson has been listed as doubtful and while I think Zeller makes for a fantastic value play at $2,800 and listed Parker as the alternative if the Bucks decide to play small, Brogdon is another player who also benefits from Henson’s absence. We have seen Brogdon get plenty of run in the smaller lineups and the Celtics will have no problem playing small themselves. If Parker is indeed in the doghouse we could some starter-like minutes from Brogdon. Again, a GPP option only unless we get news before the game.
Thanks you for reading and as always you can find me on Twitter @MikeApotria with any questions or comments.