February 23, 2018, 11:14 am
Welcome back Hoop-Ballers. It is Friday and I am here to help you break down this loaded 11 game slate. It may seem like a ton of games, but by the end of this article it will seem like a much shorter four to five game slate. It is an early look, so as of now we are not looking a whole lot of value to fit in multiple superstars, so I am feeling fair and balanced until some more value opens up throughout the day. The theme will be finding ceiling players that are underpriced. There are a few options too many that are appearing underpriced despite their recent performances before the All-Star break. So let’s not waste any more time and jump in.
Tomas Satoransky $5,700– The return of Tim Frazier did not affect Satoranksy’s production in the slightest. Satoransky is averaging 34 minutes over his last four games and producing an average of 37 DK across that span. The matchup is solid against Kemba Walker and the Hornets and the Wizards look comfortable with Satoransky handling the reins with John Wall out. The floor feels safe and we have seen what his ceiling can be.
Goran Dragic $6,400- The dragon seems underpriced in what should be a pace-up game for the Heat. He should draw Rajon Rondo out of the gates as a defender, which is only a positive. Dragic has 40 point upside on any given night and the usage has been there. I find it hard to believe he doesn’t reach value if he takes at least 15 shots.
Dennis Smith Jr. $7,000– This will be one of my favorite games to target. Most teams without playoff hopes shift gears following the All-Star break and the Mavs were showing their cards just before as well. We just saw this matchup before the break and DSJ dropped 33.75 DK points in 34 minutes on 5-of-12 shooting. A few more shot attempts and we would have been looking at a 40 DK point game. Like I said before, there are a few options around this price range, but I love this game and will be looking to get exposure to it.
Austin Rivers $5,700– All season long we have been targeting guards against the Suns and the addition of Elfrid Payton is not scaring me off now. The Suns versus the Clippers is another game I will be overweight on tonight. This one should be be fast paced and if we have word on Avery Bradley’s (sports hernia) status before tip-off it should be simple to figure out. I am guessing he sits another one out, but it seems it is more about pain management and monitoring. Either way we know Rivers will get his minutes regardless. The price tag is a fair one and he doesn’t have the same upside that he did when the Clippers were depleted, but he may see some extra run at point guard if Milos Teodosic (plantar facitis) is limited at all on the back to back.
Eric Bledsoe $6,900– He is just too cheap. Bledsoe is averaging 43 DK points over his last six games and has an average of 37 DK points against the Raptors this season. There are a few point guards in a similar price range on the board as well tonight, so I expect Bledsoe to fly under the radar for another game.
Devin Booker $8,000– The way I am looking at the slate from an early perspective is fair and balanced. I am not seeing a whole lot of value, but what we are seeing are mid-ranged plays with 50 point upside. Booker fits the mold and draws a fantastic matchup against a Clippers team who cannot defend shooters. Yes Bradley is a great perimeter defender, but he may not play and could be limited if he does. We have seen the upside Booker has when he catches fire and is taking shots and I think coming off a 3-point contest victory Booker will be looking to chuck. Do not forget about Elfrid Payton. I do not know if I would play him and Booker in the same lineup, but I will definitely have exposure to both.
Tyrone Wallace $3,600– Wallace could be a source of elite value on tonight’s slate if the Clippers are thin at guard again tonight. Bradley is a question mark and Teodosic is on a back to back. I love the matchup and it helps us fill a weak small forward position. He didn’t start last night, but it appears it was due to disciplinary actions. He eventually started the second half over Teodosic.
Kyle Kuzma $5,900– The shot attempts are there for Kuzma. In the Lakers’ last game before the All-Star break Kuzma played only 19 minutes, but managed to get up 12 shots in that time. He is the scorer off of the bench for this team and when hot will find himself getting minutes in the thirties. It is great exposure to the late game hammer and Kuzma has shown he can provide DFS value in multiple ways.
Nikola Mirotic $6,600– Mirotic is the definition of a GPP play. He can blow up a lineup or an entire slate. The matchup is not the best. The Heat tend to slow games down and James Johnson is capable of chasing Mirotic out to the 3-point line. But I just look at the usage and shot attempts off of the bench. He is averaging 17 shot attempts over his last three games and his minutes seem safe hovering right around thirty. Again, I would have liked a better matchup, but there is plenty of juice to squeeze at $6,600.
Julius Randle $7,300– The Mavericks are one of the league’s worst rebounding teams. Randle is pretty much good at one thing, rebounding. He has crushed the Mavs this season with an average of 43 DK points in two games against them. My favorite play at power forward on the slate.
Alex Len $4,800– It looks like Tyson Chandler is more on the doubtful side, which means we may see another heavy dosage of Len. Last game Len finally got to see heavy run and played 38 minutes. The Suns may need his big body against DeAndre Jordan tonight and if we know he is going to get more than 30 minutes at that price I am all in.
Al Horford $6,700– I think this is a little too cheap for Horford. The Celtics will be forced to play big throughout the game so Horford should see plenty of time at both power forward and center. In two games earlier this season Horford is averaging just over 35 DK points per game. You can slot him at power forward as well making lineup construction a breeze. I’d feel like a fool if I didn’t mention that this is also a revenge spot for Marcus Morris. I say this here because I would not recommend playing both Morris and Horford, but I expect a great game from one and a solid one from the other.
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,300– Towns owns the Rockets. It feels like every time these two teams meet he drops at least 60 DK points. It is just a great pace up spot for the Wolves and whenever Towns has an opportunity to run the floor we want to take advantage of that. Even though it is a dream spot, he may still go under owned with Andre Drummond having an equally good matchup at a similar price.
As always if you have any questions or comments you can reach me on Twitter @MikeApotria. Good luck tonight!