March 30, 2018, 2:09 pm
The regular season is coming to an end and we are seeing some pretty wild rotations. Tonight will be no different and we have to monitor the injuries and starting lineups in order to maximize the value we need to fit in the super stars on tonight’s slates. Before we jump into the value plays I wanted to start by saying I did not list any players over $10,000. None of the superstars are bad plays and we could make a case for all of them. Instead I focused on the guys we are going to need to fit these studs in and the plays going against these stars we are going to want to get some correlation exposure to. If I did have to list my preferred pricey stars I would do it like so:
- LeBron James
- Anthony Davis
- Russell Westbrook
- Giannis Antetekoumnpo (would be higher, but was seen icing ankle after last night’s game)
- James Harden
Now that we got that out of the way let’s take a look at some of the plays I will feature around these studs.
MarShon Brooks $3,100– This play possesses massive risk, but we know Tyreke Evans is not with the team and Andrew Harrison has already been ruled out. This means the Grizzlies will likely chop the minutes between Mario Chalmers, Wayne Selden and Brooks. To me Brooks presents the most upside and he just so happens to be the cheapest as well. The Grizzlies know what they have in Chalmers, but in his first game with the team we saw willingness for the Grizzlies to play Brooks 21 minutes. With all of the injuries and the likelihood of this game getting out of hand quickly we could see those minutes increase slightly. Again, there is a lot of risk in this play, but at $3,100 you’re not losing much even if he plays similar minutes.
Isaiah Taylor $4,800– The Hawks may be extremely thin at point guard for tonight’s game. Right now Dennis Schroder is being listed as doubtful and Malcolm Delaney has already been ruled out. Taylor has thrived in the starting point guard role and the minutes seem safe. He will be chalky on tonight’s slate, but there are not a ton of good options for a cheap point guard and if we want to spend up at small or power forward he fits lineup constructions nicely. Let’s not forget the narrative for the Hawks as well. The other night a video of Ben Simmons talking trash about the Hawks to Karl Anthony-Towns went viral. We could see the Hawks come out with extra energy or we could see Simmons dominate like Towns did.
Jrue Holiday $8,200– The Pelicans draw the Cavs tonight in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. There are a ton of studs on tonight’s slate and Anthony Davis is included in this category. The problem is fitting Davis and LeBron in the same lineup. Holiday provides great exposure to this game and has a plus- DVP matchup. Holiday has only faced the Cavs once so far this year, but in that game he dropped 48 DK points. As of now Rajon Rondo is currently being listed as questionable and we have seen Holiday’s assist numbers jump a little when forced to handle the ball more. I wish the price was just below $8,000, but regardless this is a good spot for him.
Tyrone Wallace $3,400– Wallace is only in play if we hear Danillo Gallinari and Milos Teodosic are ruled out again. Wallace is dirt cheap and when starting seems to be locked into at least 20 DK points. It is a neutral matchup, but this game against the Blazers should be one of the night’s more competitive ones.
Taurean Prince $7,300– I am going to keep riding Prince while Dennis Schroder is out. Right now, Schroder is being listed as doubtful, so we should see Prince take at least 15 shots. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper, but without Joel Embiid the Sixers’ defense is not even close to the same. This game could be a little more competitive then people think and if we are targeting some Sixers (which you should) we need to target some Hawks as well.
Brandon Ingram $5,600– Ingram has only played one game since returning from his groin injury, so there is some inherent risk in this play. He did start and if his minutes get ramped up towards thirty he should make for a great value. The Lakers play the Bucks tonight and they will need all the length they have on defense covering Giannis. Lonzo Ball (knee) is currently being listed as questionable and if he is forced to sit out Ingram should get some extra run at point guard. Judging by how delicate the Lakers were handling Ball earlier in the year I think they sit him out. I am less inclined to play Ingram if Ball does in fact play.
Ersan Ilyasova $4,000– We are going to have to take a hard look at a ton of Sixers tonight. The matchup is fantastic and usage gets spread around everywhere without Joel Embiid on the floor. We figure Dario Saric is the biggest beneficiary with Embiid out, but we he was already playing close to or above thirty minutes on a nightly basis. This brings me to Ilyasova. He could see his minutes in the upper twenties and he is also in a revenge spot against his former team. There is another cheap Sixer power forward I will get to at a similar price. The decision we will be facing is which one we want to target.
David Nwaba $4,500– There is risk involved with playing Nwaba as the Bulls have been wonky with their rotations, but he has safely played at least 30 or more minutes over the last two games. It is a plus matchup against the Magic and we have seen Nwaba possess 30-plus DK point upside. We probably won’t need to go here tonight, but if the injuries fall into place and we get the word he is starting again he will be on my radar.
Ben Simmons $9,400– Small forward is stacked today and that is something I do not normally say. There are plenty of superstars on the slate and without Embiid, Simmons’ name has to be put in the same category. The matchup against the Hawks is a beautiful one and this has potential triple-double written all over it. He should fly under the radar with so many high priced options at the same position.
Dario Saric- $6,800-I mentioned it before, but Saric gets a huge usage bump with Embiid off of the floor. The other bonus is that he gets more time at center and playing closer to the rim gives him a better chance at a double-double. I am not opposed to playing Saric with another Sixers big as well, simply because Saric will only see a slight minutes increase and gains most of his value in usage.
Bobby Portis $5,800– Portis is in a fantastic spot with a fantastic price against the Magic. Last game the Bulls were without Cristiano Felicio (back) and they could be without him again. On top of that Robin Lopez could possibly face league suspension after mouthing off and being ejected from last night’s game. This paves this way to minutes for Portis and Noah Vonleh. Both are in play and we saw how last night they could both reach value in the same night. Portis has the higher ceiling and is only $1,100 more, so that is the way I am leaning.
Richaun Holmes $4,200– Holmes could be fool’s gold in the situations when Embiid sits, but if we get the word that Amir Johnson is sitting out again he seems a lot safer. Holmes played 20 minutes in the game where Embiid got hurt, and at $4,200 could easily pay off that price tag in a similar situation. It is hard to imagine him seeing any less than twenty minutes and he’s sure to be a chalkier option on tonight’s slate.
Note: If Amir Johnson plays he will likely start and cut into Holmes’ minutes, making for a slightly better play at near minimum salary.
Brook Lopez $6,700– As long as the Lakers feel comfortable giving Lopez over thirty minutes we could be comfortable with him in our lineups. We know he is not much of a rebounder, or one for at in that matter, but the Lakers are facing the Bucks who are dreadful against opposing centers. Lopez has dropped 41.25 DK points in each of his last two games and in 20 minutes earlier this season put up 20 DK points in this matchup. So it is safe to assume Lopez will be a point per minute guy some upside.
Nikola Jokic $9,100– Jokic draws a matchup that he seems fairly comfortable with after averaging 49 DK points across three games versus the Thunder this season. Steven Adams is not a center we normally pick on defensively, but Jokic creates a mi-matchup for that Thunder will struggle to match up with. We expect the pace to be fast and this game to be high scoring. Jokic is underpriced and always offers his 60-point triple-double upside.