November 16, 2018, 5:21 pm
Welcome Back everyone! It is Friday, November 16 and we have eight games to look at for the main slate on DraftKings. I just wanted to say thank you for everyone who came out and helped fill out weekly contest! We had a great showing and a ton of fun and I look forward to next Wednesday’s contest.
Tonight should be an interesting night with only a few high-priced superstars who are in tough spots due to potential blowouts. Both Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are at risk tonight. I will never tell someone to fade a game because of a potential blowout, but if I play anyone from these games it would be the cheaper options available on both sides. Let’s get started breaking down some spots I believe we have some potential value.
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Jeff Teague $5,900 vs. Trail Blazers – Teague has been making the most of his opportunity with Derrick Rose off of the floor the past two. For this spot I would love to see Rose sit again as Teague has dropped at least 40 DK points and has taken double digit shot attempts with both Rose and Jimmy Butler off of the floor. The Blazers are no slouches on defense though, and currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency at 105.8 so I’d reserve Teague for tournaments if Rose does play.
Mike Conley vs. Kings $7,000 – This is sneakily one of my favorite games on the night. The game total of is not the highest at 214 but Conley smashed this spot earlier in the season, dropping 44.5 DK points on 10-of-22 shooting. I love the shot attempts this season and Conley has really taken a step forward as a scorer. This price tag is too cheap for him and he is in play in cash games and GPP’s.
Damian Lillard vs. Timberwolves $9,100 – His price tag is up there, but his recent play warrants it. I want some exposure to this game and wouldn’t mind hitting it with the two high-priced studs in hopes of a back and forth game. Lillard managed almost 35 DK points in 28 minutes the last time these two teams met up and if stays closer this time and Lillard sees the fourth quarter I am expecting that both numbers rise.
Jrue Holiday vs. Knicks $8,300 – Holiday has manning the starting point guard role while Elfrid Payton has missed time. Payton is questionable once again and him playing would suppress my love for Holiday slightly, but we there is also a chance that Nikola Mirotic sits again and that opens up usage for the starters all-around.
This is a game I am a little worried about, but I am not fond of a lot of the options at shooting guard tonight and if the news falls the right way I think we could look Holiday’s way for a safe cash play with some tournament upside.
Evan Turner vs. Timberwolves $4,400 – Turner has been someone I have been turning to on shorter slates for value and on a night where we do not have a ton of guaranteed value open early he is an option again. His minutes have been floating between 25-30 over the past few games and with Moe Harkless and Seth Curry ruled out he should continue to see good run. I will mention a few players on the Blazers because I am looking to run it this game back with a few options in each lineup.
Kevin Knox vs. Pelicans $4,300 – Knox has seen his minutes increase in each game since returning from injury and now he is back in the starting lineup in what should be an extremely fast-paced game. He’s struggled with his shot this season, but over his last three games Knox has taken double-digit shot attempts and hasn’t even played over 30 minutes. I feel safe saying that even if this game gets out of hand we will still see Knox in the fourth quarter as Knicks head coach David Fizdale is looking to getting him ramped back up following his injury absence.
Kyle Anderson vs. Kings $4,800 – SloMo is finally seeing the minutes we anticipated when drafting our season-long teams in the preseason. Over the last five games Anderson has averaged 34 minutes and that has led to him averaging 26.7 DK during that span. Anderson is not a guy who needs to score to make us money and on a slate with little value (some will open up throughout the day) his name pops. He is a solid option for both cash and GPP’s.
Robert Covington vs. Trail Blazers $5,300- Covington looks like he is going to be one of Thibs’ guys. He played 41 minutes in his debut with the Sixers and slotted right into Jimmy Butler’s role at small forward. He won’t have the same usage that Butler did, but Covington is playing on a team that plays faster than the his previous team and bleeds points defensively, leading to higher scoring games. All of this makes a guy like Covington more valuable as his value comes with his hustle stats.
Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Kings $5,300 – Clicking on JJJ’s name on DK will leave you wondering why he is on this list, but ignore the game logs. Jackson’s issue with playing time has been directly correlated with foul trouble with season. When these two teams met earlier in the season JJJ played 30 minutes and dropped 30.75 DK points, and he still accumulated six fouls in that game.
The Kings play big and Jackson will need to play big minutes tonight. I expect him to play until he fouls out, if he does. I listed three players from the Grizzlies and I’d feel comfortable playing two in a lineup.
Julius Randle vs. Knicks $6,700- There is a ton of potential for a blowout in this game and Randle is only play for me if Nikola Mirotic (ankle) sits out. In that case Randle would draw the start and have his way with a poor Knicks frontcourt. In the past games that Mirotic has missed we have seen Randle smash and even if this game gets out of hand we have seen Randle hit value in limited minutes. He would likely be a chalky play if Mirotic is ruled out, but would warrant looks in all contests.
Ed Davis vs. Wizards $4,300 – Davis has filled in admirably for Jarret Allen (illness) and now we have the news that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ankle), who was playing backup center, is questionable. It is an early take and we do not have the news yet, but if Allen is out we could fire Davis up as a safe play and if both are out he becomes an elite value play.
Jusuf Nurkic vs. Timberwolves $7,100 – I would be beside myself if I had not mentioned Nurkic on tonight’s slate. If you read my articles often you know I love targeting centers against KAT and his poor defense. Nurkic has been on a tear, averaging 41 DK points over his last four games.
Our problem with playing Nurkic is not knowing how many minutes he will see. KAT could easily get him into foul trouble, but even in limited minutes Nurkic could produce. When these two teams met earlier this money Nurkic only managed to play 23 minutes in a blowout win, but still managed to drop 39 DK points. I’d likely reserve him four tournaments due to his slightly inflated price tag over the recent games and the minutes risk, but this is still a smash spot for the Bosnian.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Trailblazers $9,500 – Basketball is a game of emotions and once Butler bounced KAT looks to be back to his normal self. His usage has been off of the charts and his price tag is just slightly too cheap for him on a slate where I am avoiding the $11,000-plus players. This is a game we are going to want to get exposure to and paying up for KAT is a solid way to go.
Thank you again and if you have any questions or comments you could find me on Twitter @MikeApotria and I would be happy to answer them. Good luck guys, now go take down a GPP!