November 2, 2018, 2:02 pm
It is the first Friday of November and now that most of us are stomach sick on our couches from a candy binge we can take the time to look over tonight’s eight game slate. We do not have a lot of excitement on tonight’s slate. A few games have a chance to be blowouts and Vegas isn’t projecting a lot of scoring on the night overall. We have a few high-priced studs to look at tonight and deciding which ones to play is going to be justified by which games you are targeting.
The main priced-up options I am targeting are Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. As of this morning Golden State is being favored by 11 points, leaving the risk of a blowout, but the game total is 238 and points will be scored and if the Golden State studs manage to play four quarters they could explode. I do not believe it is optimal to play either Curry or Durant as a one-off without playing any of the studs on Minnesota. The Thunder are facing the Wizards and there is a player across from Westbrook that I am all about tonight. I am not in love with the Raptors on this slate due to risk of blowout and I think CP3 and Paul George are just a little out of my price range.
Now that we have sorted out the Studs let’s jump into where the value lives.
Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Knicks $5,500- Smith is coming off of one of his worst performances of the season and his price is reflective of just that. He does not have the best matchup on paper with Frank Ntilikina starting point guard for the Knicks and I am going to be honest, this feels like a gut play. A lot of people will be on Ricky Rubio for a similar price range and Rubio’s usage and DK points per minute actually drop massively with Donovan Mitchell off of the court and he draws a tough matchup himself against Mike Conley. I am not saying fade Rubio. If he and Gobert could get the pick and roll going he could easily pile up assists and sneak in a double-double, but Smith will come at a much lower ownership and still possess 35-plus DK point upside. This is strictly a tournament play.
Mike Conley vs. Jazz $7,000- Conley has been the primary offensive cog for this Grizzlies team. He has taken 73 shot attempts over his last four games and we know we are targeting this game for value. Conely is averaging 36.2 DK points per game and has scored over 40 in three out of six games, providing tournament upside and a rock solid cash floor.
John Wall vs. Thunder- $8,100- Wall is in a fast-paced matchup against the Thunder, who are on the second half of a back-to-back, and is just priced way too cheap. I am all over Wall tonight and I am expecting a big game in the assists category with Dwight Howard expected to return. He is only $1,000 more than Bradley Beal and has so many other avenues to produce points. He will draw Russell Westbrook on defense and as energetic as he is, Russ bleeds fantasy points on defense. Great play for cash games and tournaments.
Dante Exum vs. Grizzlies $3,700- Donovan Mitchell (hamstring) has already been ruled and there is going to be a ton of usage to go around. Exum closed the fourth quarter after Mitchell got hurt and played 25 minutes. He is going to be the chalk of the night, but unless we get some amazing value that opens up as the day goes on we have to consider him. It is a small sample size, but with Mitchell off of the court this season Exum is seeing a usage increase of 4.9 percent and is averaging .09 DK points more per minute. He should see time at both backup point guard and shooting guard and has a chance to draw the start.
Jimmy Butler vs. Warriors $8,000- First of all we need to make sure Butler is actually going to suit up for this one, but he said he expects to play after he held himself out of the last game due to “general soreness.” If he does play, Butler is priced far too cheaply for this matchup. This game has one of the higher implied totals on the board and if it manages to stay close we have to imagine Butler has a large part to do with it.
P.J. Tucker vs. Nets $4,500- Tucker has quietly been producing value all season and is averaging almost 25 DK points per game. He draws a fantastic matchup versus the Nets and could be played in lineups with Carmelo Anthony or Eric Gordon and still produce value. He is not someone we are going to expect to score a whole lot, but Tucker has the ability to fill up the defensive categories and grab double-digit rebounds; any scoring is a bonus to what we expect.
Carmelo Anthony vs. Nets $5,800- After mentioning Tucker I have to mention Anthony. They are both in play and while I do like Melo a little more, Tucker offers us a slight discount. Melo’s upside with James Harden out has been on full display. Over the last three games Anthony has taken 47 shots and the trend should lead to more chucking against the Nets. His floor for his price is as good as Tucker’s, but for tournaments we have to consider the upside of Melo even if he hits only 40 percent of his shots.
Tobias Harris vs. Magic $7,300- I have been writing up Harris all year long and will continue to do so. He is another player who I believe is slightly underpriced and he is forced to do so much for this Clippers team. The shot attempts are there and this season he is proving to be the Clippers’ most reliable rebounder as well. He is eligible at both forward spots and if you are looking to get any Clippers in your lineups I would be looking towards the forwards with Harris at the top.
Noah Vonleh vs. Mavericks $4,800- Vonleh has been quietly winning sharks money across DFS platforms. I’ll be honest here and say that I only managed to get him one night over the last few games and missed out on his big double-double last game. The minutes look secure and real and as long as Enes Kanter is coming off of the bench we need to consider Vonleh for his rebounding upside. We are going to have to monitor the situation up until game time, but it seems Knicks head coach David Fizdale is committed to seeing what he has from his younger players.
Draymond Green vs. Timberwolves $6,900- Targeting big men versus the Timberwolves is something I do often and if you think this game stays close than jump on Green. Karl-Anthony Towns is a putrid defender and Draymond’s game stacks simple, as he does not rely upon scoring to make his value.
Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Pacers $5,000- Another player I am a day late and a dollar short on. Carter exploded last game versus the Nuggets for 55 DK points. More importantly, he played 38 minutes. His upside is tremendous and if we know he is getting at least 30 minutes he also provides an excellent floor for both cash games and tournaments. His is likely to somewhat chalky making him a slightly better cash game play.
Jarret Allen vs. Rockets $5,100- between blowouts and foul trouble Allen has not been given a fair chance in DFS. The only thing we worry about is minutes and I imagine he sees enough to hit value tonight. The Nets need Allen to run the floor against Clint Capela. The Rockets tend to push the pass and Allen’s defense could slow down the transition and force the Rockets to make their jump shots. Even in limited minutes we have seen Allen hit what his current ‘5x’ value is, making him safe for cash games and his upside with 30-plus minutes makes him a tournament play as well.
Rudy Gobert vs. Grizzlies $8,200-Gobert has been on a Go-tear and even with a minus matchup against Marc Gasol, I do not see him stopping tonight. Donovan Mitchell has already been ruled out and although it is a small sample size Gobert has seen an increase in usage of 7.3 percent. Basically we are going to see a lot of pick and rolls. Gobert now has double-digit field goal attempts over his last three games and in all of those games he has scored at least 50 DK points.
Royce O’Neale vs. Grizzlies $3,300- O’Neale is the pivot play to Exum for me. He does not see a big increase in usage, but his DK points per minute increase by .25 with Mitchell off of the floor. He is slightly cheaper than Exum and the ownership is guaranteed to be much lower barring the news of who is in the starting lineup.
Ricky Rubio vs. Grizzlies $5,700- I am not in love with Rubio tonight. He is going to garnish high ownership and could easily bust in this spot. Rubio actually sees a massive dip in usage and DK points per minute with Donovan Mitchell off of the court, but the sample size is small and he is still a valuable tournament play as he crushed the Grizzlies in their two meetings last season averaging 22 points, nine rebounds and four assists, but did so without Mike Conley playing. It is for all of these reasons I list Rubio in my honorable mention’s section rather than my top plays. He is definitely in play tonight with Mitchell being out, but there are many factors that also point to him being worth a fade.
Jabari Parker vs. Pacers $5,800- Parker let a lot of people down in his return to the starting lineup, but seeing him play 36 minutes and 34 minutes in two out of the last three games encourages me. I wouldn’t load up on this game too much as the Pacers defense is not one to be taken lightly, but he may see depressed ownership after a stinker and still provides 35-plus DK point upside for tournaments. He makes for a solid pivot to Wendell Carter Jr.
As always you can give me a follow @MikeApotria on Twitter and reach out with any questions or comments. Good Luck and take down a tournament!
December 12, 2019, 1:52 amD'Angelo RussellPG, Golden State Warriors
D'Angelo Russell tried to put the Warriors on his back in Wednesday's 124-122 loss to the Knicks, dropping 32 points on 12-of-27 from the field, including six 3-pointers to go along with six assists and two steals.
Russell sent the game into overtime with a clutch 3-pointer at the end of regulation, but it wasn't enough to drag this Warriors team across the finish line. The opportunity will be there for Russell to produce. He'll have cold spells from time-to-time, but it looks like he's ready to pick it back up.
December 12, 2019, 1:48 amDraymond GreenPF, Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green earned his second triple-double of the season on Wednesday night, recording 14 points, 10 rebounds, 12 assists and four steals on 5-of-11 from the field.
Green has the potential to stuff the stat sheet whenever he gets on the court. With injuries this season, and the Warriors likely being cautions of wearing down their vets, these nights might not last long into the season. He could be a strong sell-high candidate after tonight's performance.
December 12, 2019, 1:43 amAlec BurksSG, Golden State Warriors
Alec Burks logged 33 minutes off the bench on Wednesday night, turning them into 18 points, five boards, two dimes and two assists.
Burks was only behind D'Angelo Russell in points for the Warriors tonight. He has upside and can have well-rounded games, but it isn't a given. If you have him, you can hold him, but probably isn't worth running to go pick up.
December 12, 2019, 1:39 amMarquese ChrissPF, Golden State Warriors
Marquese Chriss grabbed a season-high 10 rebounds on Wednesday while tallying an additional 12 points, two dimes, a steal and three blocks.
This was arguably Chriss' best game of the season. Things are trending up for Chriss and he looks to benefit from the Warriors starting to tank. Check if he is still on your waivers, he's worth a flyer after this performance.
December 12, 2019, 1:35 amMarcus MorrisPF, New York Knicks
Marcus Morris dropped a season-high 36 points on Wednesday night, piling it it on with 10 rebounds, three assists, three steals and five 3-pointers.
Morris was one point shy of his career-high 37 points. It's important to note this was against the Warriors, but Morris has been a nice pickup this season. With so much uncertainty ahead for the Knicks, it might be a good time to see what you can sell him for, especially since he was probably a pretty cheap acquisition.
December 12, 2019, 1:28 amJulius RandlePF, New York Knicks
Julius Randle finished Wednesday night with another double-double to his name, tallying 24 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
Randle has been a disappointment for owners this season. We all know he can score and rebound, but another night with out any defensive stats continues to hurt his stock. Randle is going to need to pick it up to be standard league relevant again.
December 12, 2019, 1:24 amRJ BarrettSF, New York Knicks
RJ Barrett secured his first career double-double on Wednesday night, ending with 22 points, 10 boards, three assists, a steal, a block and three 3-pointers.
Barrett logged over 40 minutes before the game even went into overtime and finished the game seeing 46 minutes. The Knicks aren't afraid to use their first-round pick, however, this hasn't turned into fantasy relevance yet. Games like this will help put him on the radar in standard leagues.
December 12, 2019, 1:20 amElfrid PaytonPG, New York Knicks
Elfrid Payton collected 14 points, four boards, five assists and a steal on Wednesday night against the Warriors.
Payton came off the bench, but was on the court as the Knicks tried to close out the game. It's worth noting that Payton saw the most minutes at the point finishing the game with 29 minutes, and Frank Ntilikina only seeing 13 of action.
December 12, 2019, 12:56 amBuddy HieldSG, Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield found his shot in the second half of Wednesday's 93-94 victory against the Thunder, ending with 23 points, six boards, six assists, two steals and five 3-pointers on 9-of-24 shooting.
The efficiency isn't pretty in this stat line, but it was largely due to a terrible first half. Hield has been heating up with De'Aaron Fox on the sidelines, sitting just outside the top-20 in the last two weeks.
December 12, 2019, 12:52 amRichaun HolmesPF, Sacramento Kings
Richaun Homles pitched in 10 points, seven boards, two steal and block in 25 minutes on Wednesday night.
The big question was how the return of Marvin Bagley would impact Holmes. It looks like he will still be a valuable fantasy asset and Luke Walton said they could both see the court at the same time. It's a situation to monitor, but so far, so good for fantasy GMs with Holmes on their rosters.