October 26, 2018, 1:35 pm
It is Friday, October 26 and we are back to take a closer look at this seven-game slate for Draftkings. Last Friday we smashed and I am hoping we do the same this week as it looks like injuries have opened up plenty of value for us. Draftkings is still leaving top options underpriced and I am here to help you navigate through the player pool and figure out just who those guys are.
Tonight we only have one late game, Wizards vs. Kings. This game starts at 10:00 EST and could easily dictate the slate as it has the highest game total and is the last game of the night. This game could go any way and I figured I would just get this game and all of the players in it out of the way early.
John Wall is priced fantastically at $8,500 and Markieff Morris still holds value at $5,600 with Dwight Howard out and Ian Mahinmi (back) questionable. On the other side we have to deal with Dave Joerger’s nonsense. The minutes have been distributed in many different ways, but from the looks of things if this game stays close we are looking at De’Aaron Fox ($6,800), Nemanja Bjelica ($5,000) and Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,300). If the game starts to pull away Marvin Bagley ($5,200) and Yogi Ferrell ($3,500) come into play and should see increased minutes.
I am a GPP player who plays multiple lineups so I will definitely have exposure in both scenarios, but will not be overloading on anyone from this game. We have plenty of value that we could feel content with playing, but I imagine some valuable fantasy options from this game being low-owned tonight and nailing the correct one may be key.
Let’s not waste any more time and jump right into some of my favorite value plays for this seven game slate.
Chris Paul vs. Clippers $9,200- Paul returns from his suspension tonight and is immediately being vaulted back in with a higher expected usage. James Harden (hamstring) is expected to miss at least one game and since Paul has been in Houston he is sporting a usage of 32.9 percent and is averaging 1.56 DK points per minute when Harden is out. He is likely to be major chalk in tournaments, but a lock for cash games. We also have the narrative of Paul facing his former team.
Kemba Walker vs. Bulls $8,200– We are going to be trotting out some Bulls in our lineups and I think Walker is the best way to come back at it. He is the conductor driving the train and his usage this season has been absurd. He will draw Cameron Payne on defense, a player he just scored 40 DK points on while shooting only 14 shots. I am expecting Kemba to shoot more and if he takes closer to twenty shots is in a position to smash.
Elfrid Payton vs. Nets $6,700– I love all of the Pelicans in this matchup versus the Nets. The Nets have one of the league’s worst defenses and the Pelicans have been playing at a pace that is out of this world. Anytime we target someone versus the Nets or Suns we have to factor in the blowout risk, but this is a dream spot for the bigs and at $6,700 Payton is just too cheap as well. I will be looking to pair one or two bigs with Payton and will pivot to Jrue Holiday as well as he is only $200 more than Payton and it shooting guard eligible as well.
Zach LaVine vs. Hornets $7,900– We are finally seeing a price increase for Lavine, but it is still not high enough. I mentioned on a podcast last week that with the usage LaVine is seeing he should be priced closer to Devin Booker and this is a fantastic matchup as the Hornets bleed points to athletic wings. With Bobby Portis expected to miss the next four to six weeks we should see LaVine’s usage increase even more and the rumor is Fred Hoiberg is looking to keep Jabari Parker on the bench which would only boost LaVine’s usage in the starting lineup even more. It is a small sample size, but LaVine sees a usage boost of 7.5 percent and averages .23 more DK points per minutes with Portis and Kris Dunn out.
Eric Bledsoe vs. Timberwolves $6,700– Bledsoe ad Khris Middleton continue to fly under the radar. This should be an up-tempo game and barring news we may want to slide some Timberwolves into our lineups. Bledsoe remains too cheap and is a great middle-tier option at shooting guard.
Damyean Dotson vs. Warriors $4,200– This game could fly under the radar due to inherent blowout risk involved. Dotson has been absolutely smashing over the past few games and has been included in few GPP winning lineups. Dotson comes off of the bench, so the blowout risk does not scare me off as he would still likely see decent minutes regardless and the fact that he has seen over 30 minutes the past two games coming off of the bench is even better. We have a lot of options for value tonight, but for some reason Dotson’s name will still likely be overlooked.
Nikola Mirotic vs. Nets $7,300– He is the same price as Tobias Harris, but it helps that they both have power forward eligibility as well. I mentioned before that I will be looking to target a few Pelicans and Mirotic’s name stands out. His lowest performance of the season was last game where he still managed to score slightly over 36 DK points. This doesn’t crush value, but if we are looking at a 35-point floor we are in good shape. I love having the chance to play a power forward in my small forward slot because some of these guys have a greater chance to record a double-double, like Mirotic.
Jabari Parker vs. Hornets $5,500– Enter the chalk of the night. Parker is set up to see an increased role with Bobby Portis sidelined the next four to six weeks. Many ae expecting him to start, but a recent report indicates that Fred Hoiberg is considering keeping Parker in his bench role. This would be wonderful for DFS as long as Parker still sees increased minutes. You may ask why would we want Parker coming off of the bench instead of starting? Well, he is already considered chalky and the report of him not starting may scare some ownership away and Parker would still maintain his absurd usage playing with the second unit. I will mention it again, I am in no way saying Parker is a bad play for GPPs, but fading someone who is expected to garner mass ownership is an avenue I find profitable. He is an elite cash game play.
Anthony Davis vs. Nets $11,600- I might as well mention Davis because if I spend up in any lineups it will be on him rather than Giannis. Nothing against the Greek Freak, this is just a dream spot for Davis. My builds are coming out looking pretty fair and balanced, but we can never overlook Davis on any slate, especially with a matchup like this one. Like I said, there is inherent risk involved with this game, but Davis could easily break the slate and we have plenty of value.
Tobias Harris vs. Rockets $7,300– These teams just faced off and it was the only game of the season in which Harris did not post at least 40 DK points and I am going to assume that it was not Houston’s defense that did it (shot 9-of-15), but rather a lackluster rebounding performance by Harris that brought down his total. He, like LaVine, is one of the players I have been targeting because he is just way too cheap. Harris will be looking at a price tag closer to $8,200 before we know it.
Carmelo Anthony vs. Clippers $4,900- Melo is by no means the same player he was years ago, but we know he still loves shoot and with James Harden out he will see increased usage. He has played 38 minutes in the Rockets’ last game against the Jazz and dropped almost 40 DK points. We have better options for cash games than Melo, but he remains an elite GPP option at his price.
Karl Anthony-Towns vs. Bucks $8,000- Towns has been underperforming all season long and we are seeing his price reflect it, but seriously $8,000 for Towns tonight? I am all aboard this price as Towns is in a dream matchup versus the Bucks. He will draw the start against Brook Lopez and he is not someone known for locking down his opponents. This game looks like it has a ton of fantasy potential and Towns looks poised to be top play for the Timberwolves.
Clint Capela vs. Clippers $6,700- The minutes have been there for Capela as he has seen at least 30 over the last three games including one against the Clippers. In that matchup Capela had his way on offense hitting 11-of-14 shots for 23 points. In that that matchup versus the Clippers Capela finished with 43.50 DK points and he did so while only grabbing six rebounds. Capela is a double-double machine and without Harden I am expecting Chris Paul and Capela to fully utilize the pick and roll against the slower Clippers’ centers.
Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Hornets $4,300- We are going back to the well with this Bobby Portis injury. Carter Jr. has already been starting, but he has been sharing rebounds and usage with Portis. Those who watch the Bulls know Portis loves to jack up shots and fight teammates for rebounds. Harping back to a recent report indicating Parker will remain on the bench only bodes well for Carter Jr. The possible replacement in the starting lineup would be Chandler Hutchison, a 6’7” rookie forward. The rebounds should be available for Carter Jr. and the price is hard to pass up.
Brook Lopez vs. Timberwolves $4,800- Centers versus the Timberwolves is something I always gravitate towards. Lopez has seen 30 or more minutes over the last two games and they will likely need his size again tonight versus Towns. With all of the great options at center tonight Lopez will likely go under owned and is poised for a price increase in coming games.
Gerald Green vs. Clippers $3,400- Green comes in as strictly a GPP play. Anytime Houston is missing some of their main cog players we see Mike D’Antoni go to Green off of the bench. I am not expecting a 40-point DK game from Green, but if his minutes are going to floating around 25 he has to be considered. At this price we would be ecstatic with 23-25 DK points and that is certainly in the realm of possibly tonight.
As always thank you for stopping by and if you have any questions or comments you could always reach me on Twitter @MikeApotria.