October 27, 2017, 9:47 am
Welcome to another Friday slate loaded with value. I am personally looking forward to tonight as my sweet spot for slates is between 7 to 9 games. There are a lot of interesting spots and games tonight. These are the game breakdowns followed by some value picks and plays I find to worth looking at for tonight’s slate.
Spurs vs Magic: 207 game total, Spurs favored by 5.5 points.
Rockets vs Hornets: 211.5 game total, Rockets favored by 2.5 points.
Knicks vs Nets: 219 game total, Nets favored by 2 points.
Hawks vs Nuggets: 206 game total, Nuggets favored by 8.5 points.
Timberwolves vs Thunder: 214.5 game total, Thunder favored by 2.5 points.
Lakers vs Raptors: 225 game total, Raptors favored by 6.5 points.
Wizards vs Warriors: 230 game total, Warriors favored by 10.5 points.
Let’s jump into the picks.
Ramon Sessions $4,400- The battle of New York is taking place tonight in the Garden. Sessions has been seeing solid run with the starters and averaging 29.5 minutes and 25 DK points over the past two games that Frank Ntilikina has missed. This game should play at an above average pace and I do not like a lot of other options for the Knicks tonight. He makes for a strong cash play and decent GPP option, but his ceiling is not that high.
Spencer Dinwiddie $5,200- Dinwiddie looks to draw the start again Friday night against the Knicks with D’Angelo Russell expected to sit again. In his last start, Dinwiddie saw 31.5 minutes and chucked up 13 shots. That type of usage on a Nets team that will be starving for offense is great value at only $5,200. He figures to be pretty chalky, but after scoring 40.3 DK points against the Cavs and in a seemingly tastier matchup here, he looks almost must-play.
Dejounte Murray $5,300- Murray always makes for an interesting tournament play. We have seen him rack up boards and take shots to get him over 30 DK points several times in 28 minutes or less. That is just the risk, the minutes. Murray has a great matchup against D.J. Augustin and if his minutes can reach the upper-20’s then he should be a lock for 30+ DK points.
Lonzo Ball $7,100- DraftKings’s algorithm must over analyze poor shooting. The Raptors are not the best matchup, but Ball is averaging 35.75 DK points on 5-of-24 shooting over the past two games. It is pretty obvious he is struggling to find his shot in the NBA, but he is not this bad at shooting so take advantage of his while you can before he gets back on track.
Jamal Murray $4,500- I believe last game was a sign of things to come. Murray took 20 shots against the Hornets and now gets an up-tempo game against the Hawks. Dennis Schroder said he was targeting Friday for his return and honestly, we hope he does. Schroeder is terrible at defense and ideally he starts on Murray, before he has his minutes limited. This price is still just too low and Murray should be priced closer to $6,000 in no time.
Evan Fournier $6,100- I can see a lot of people fading the big Magic names like Fournier And Nikola Vucevic now that Aaron Gordon is back, but these guys are going to find their shots regardless and Gordon is not shooting 14-of-18 from the field and 5-of-5 from 3-point land every game. Fournier is averaging 15.5 shots per game over his last four games and has shown he has a ceiling close to 50 DK points. He makes for a strong play because he can also be played at a weak small forward position.
James Harden $11,000- There is no mystery to this play. Harden finally played great, but his price was lowered by $600. With no Chris Paul, Harden will be back to dishing 10+ assists a game and once the red hot Eric Gordon comes back down to earth Harden will begin to have those 30-40 point games again. He makes for a safe expensive play on a slate where I do not love the other top tier positions.
Marvin Williams $3,900- Williams comes in looking more as a tournament play. He is priced almost $2,000 less than he was last season and it looks to be because of minutes. But after I look, the only games in which Williams saw 21 minutes or less were in games they lost by 17 points or more. Basically blowouts have been limiting his production. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist should still have his minutes limited and if Williams can get hot from three-point land early he can push Frank Kaminsky for extra run at the four.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $5,200- Another player from the Nets I am looking to get exposure from against the Knicks. RHJ saw a season high 34 minutes against the Cavs and a season high 36.5 DK points. RHJ has proven to be a player who can accumulate counting stats when he can stay out of foul trouble. Again, I do not love small forward tonight and I am looking to get a little exposure to this Nets team.
Brandon Ingram $5,400- I’m looking to go back to the well with this one. When Ingram plays 35+ minutes and takes more than 12 shots it is almost impossible for him not to make value. Seeing the double-double potential entices me even more in a matchup that will likely be small with Jonas Valanciunas ruled out. 20 real life points is not out of the question tonight for Ingram and the boards, steals and blocks should come to him given his natural versatility and length in this matchup.
Ryan Anderson $4,400- This is too cheap for the rhino. He can be one of the more frustrating DFS options on any given night, but tonight all the boxes are checked. It’s an away game, Trevor Ariza and Chris Paul are out and the Hornets use a lot of power forwards who do not dominate the paint. I love Anderson in this spot and he will be in a lot of my lineups.
Paul Millsap $6,300- Hop on. This is the spot to finally take advantage of Millsap’s price tag. It is a revenge game narrative and even without that motive, Millsap sports this highest usage rate among Nuggets this season with 26.3. I expect a smash game from Millsap tonight and hope he flies under the radar.
Draymond Green $7,200- It is going to be hard not get some exposure to the late game hammer tonight. I’m likely avoiding the high price tags in this game and looking to get my exposure with the mid-tier players like Green, Klay Thompson, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. Draymond comes out as my favorite as he has shown he can smash this Wizards lineup in the mouth. Over the past two seasons these teams have faced off four times and Green has averaged 13 points, 12 assists, 11 rebounds and 3.5 blocks/steals per game. Having a big lead and heading into the late game with a potential triple-double threat can win you all of the money tonight.
Clint Capela $6,500- Nene is likely to sit again, forcing Capela into heavy minutes. He averaged close to 17 points, 9.5 boards and 2 blocks/steals in 26 minutes per game last year going against Howard and I expect those numbers to be extrapolated throughout 30+ minutes.
Nikola Vucevic $6,900- Ok, so you’re telling me Vucci-mane just dropped $1,500 in price tag because he shot poorly one game and Aaron Gordon shot out of his mind? Vucevic has been the Magic’s best player without a doubt and in a matchup where he is likely to draw the withered Pau Gasol I expect him to crush. Vucevic has shown that he is willing to expand his shooting game and I expect him to do just that against Gasol, who struggles with perimeter shooters.
Dwight Howard $7,100- DK refuses to adjust Howard to the correct price so again, we will take advantage of it. Howard gets to face another former team and one that he had good success against last season. Howard averaged 22 points and 19 boards per game last season against Capela and that should be whom he is matched up against for the majority of the night. Howard is a certain double-double every night tonight is no different.
Otto Porter $6,700- Porter been playing great ball for the Wizards this seasons and this is the perfect up-tempo game he succeeds in. I am not in love with his price tag, but that could benefit people who choose to roster Porter as it will likely lower his ownership.
Marco Belinelli $4,400- The usage rate for Belinelli off of the bench is absurd. If Schroeder is forced to miss another game, I would look for Belinelli as a great value and for him to go criminally under owned for coming off of the bench.
Pascal Siakam/Jakob Poeltl $3,000/$5,300- Jonas Valanciunas is likely to miss tonight’s game with the Raptors having the next two days off. This will throw both Siakam and Poeltl back in mix. Poeltl makes more a solid cash game play as he has shown his double-double upside in limited minutes, while Siakam makes for an interesting GPP punt as the Lakers have given up a leagues worst 20.3 rebounds per game.
Kyle Lowry $7,600–Lowry has destroyed in this spot before is his price is fair at $7,600. If you plan on winning any money you’re going to have to get exposure to this game and in what looks like a chalk DeMar DeRozan night, I like to Lowry pivot. He would have made the value section had he been $200-$300 cheaper, but nonetheless he is still a strong option tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,200- Aldridge has been absolutely smashing without Leonard on the floor this season. Even after posting another great game, DK lowered his price by $200. While I prefer to spend down or go with Draymond at PF tonight, I will sprinkle in some of Aldridge and his 32.2 usage percentage in lineups where I am playing some guys on the Magic.
As always you can follow me on twitter with any questions or comments @Apottreeuh and make sure you check Hoop-Ball for updates regarding playing time and injuries throughout the day. Good luck and take down a GPP!
February 19, 2019, 11:44 amMarShon Brooks - G - Chicago Bulls
Marshon Brooks has agreed to terms with the Guangdong Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association, according to Sportando.
Brooks played 29 games for the Grizzlies this season averaging 6.6 points and he is expected to replace Malcolm Delaney. Leave him on the waiver wire.
February 19, 2019, 11:35 amKristaps Porzingis - F/C - Dallas Mavericks
Mark Cuban said that Kristaps Porzingis won't play this season, even if the Mavs somehow are able to make the playoffs.
The Mavs want to put their world-class training staff, led by Casey Smith, to work, strengthening Porzingis’ body the rest of this season and throughout the summer to hopefully prevent similar injuries in the future. And after all, given the amount of money the Mavs could be committing to KP this summer, a max salary of $158 million, there is no need to risk something happening to him in a season where making the playoffs seems unlikely. Kristaps remains a great stash in redraft leagues.
February 19, 2019, 11:23 amLeBron James - F - Los Angeles Lakers
Joe Vardon of The Athletic is reporting that the Lakers are "somehow a little concerned" about LeBron James.
LeBron hasn’t been showing the same speed or overall movement lately and the team is concerned that he’s not fully recovered from the groin injury that cost him to miss a career-high 18 games. The Lakers are in the 10th place in the Western Conference, three games behind the Clippers for the eighth and final playoff spot and they will need LeBron to be healthy for the rest of the season. James is averaging 26.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists in 35 minutes per game, while his shooting percentage (51 percent), 3-point percentage (35 percent) and free-throw percentage (68 percent) are all down from last season. He is still returning borderline top-15 value in standard leagues and owners can only hope he doesn’t suffer a setback.
Source: The Athletic
February 19, 2019, 9:49 amMichael Beasley - F - Los Angeles Clippers
Ex-Lakers forward Michael Beasley is finalizing a deal to play with Guangdong Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association, according to Adrian Wojnarowski.
Beasley returns to a league he is familiar with after an up and down season with the Lakers where he failed to produce consistently. It’s the smart thing to do since the Chinese team is offering him a lucrative deal and we wouldn’t expect to see him play again in the NBA, at least this season. Drop him if you haven’t already.
Source: Adrian Wojnarowski on Twitter
February 18, 2019, 8:24 pmAnthony Davis - F/C - New Orleans Pelicans
There are people within the Pelicans organization that feel Anthony Davis has played his last game with the franchise.
This is according to Scott Kushner of The Advocate who also reminds us that AD says he wants to continue playing. This is just a reminder that Anthony Davis can realistically be anywhere from the most valuable to the least valuable player in fantasy for the rest of the season. The Pelicans are also tied for the fewest games during the head-to-head playoffs.
Source: Scott Kushner on Twitter
February 18, 2019, 7:55 pmCorey Brewer - G/F - Sacramento Kings
The Kings have signed Corey Brewer to a second 10-day contract.
Brewer has yet to make an appearance with the Kings, so there’s no fantasy relevance here. He would need a few wings to go down to even make him a potential streamer.
Source: James Ham on Twitter
February 18, 2019, 5:10 pmChandler Parsons - F - Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies coach J.B. Bickerstaff said he's open to giving Chandler Parsons (knee) some playing time going forward.
"I think it’ll be good that we’re coming out of the break and we’ll have a few days to practice just to get him on the court, get him back with the group, see where he is," Bickerstaff said. "It’s been a while since he’s played as well. So it’ll be good to have him on the floor, get up and down a little bit, see where he is physically and mentally and then we’ll go from there." This is softer than the Shams Charania reports about returning to the Grizzlies lineup, which were curious at best, and owners should take a wait and see approach to his playing time. He hasn't been playing for multiple reasons.
February 18, 2019, 5:08 pmMilos Teodosic - G - Los Angeles Clippers
Milos Teodosic will reportedly sit out the rest of the 2018-19 season.
Teodosic was never as good as the hype but he was fun to watch pass. Hopefully he can keep his career going overseas.
Source: Nikola Stojkovic on Twitter
February 18, 2019, 5:06 pmKevin Knox - F - New York Knicks
Knicks owner James Dolan is seriously considering selling the team according to The Ringer's Bill Simmons.
The team outright denied the report today but surely Knicks fans are rolling their eyes over that, and hoping that Dolan sells the squad with no haste.
February 17, 2019, 11:20 pmKawhi Leonard - F - Toronto Raptors
Kawhi Leonard (knee soreness) suited up for the All-Star Game on Sunday and scored 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting in 19 minutes of action in a Team LeBron win over Team Giannis.
He added five rebounds, five threes and two assists to the box score. Leonard has been in and out of the lineup for the Raptors quite a lot this season, but hopefully he can have a healthy second half of the season. If he can stay on the court, he should continue to hover around top-5 value in all formats. Expect Leonard to return for the Raptors' first game after the break ends.