April 4, 2017, 9:54 am
The season is closing out and we are still here, churning away to make sure you’re the most prepared DFS player each and every main slate. It is time for us to buckle down, apply some next level research, delve into the analysis and search for the proper pivots to win all the money. We have an absolutely tantalizing slate ahead of us that is full of teams with something left to play for. It will be imperative to capitalize on players who are playing in games that have meaning while avoiding players on teams who are just killing time til summer vacation.
Russell Westbrook, $13,600, MIL@OKC
Every time Beastbrook has a price increase I think that his ownership will be lower than usual. However, this has not been happening as he is seemingly at least 30 percent owned no matter who else is available on the slate. At his current price his 5x value equals 68 points, a plateau he has only reached seven times in the past 25 games. He is never a bad play but he won’t be the most optimal choice for our GPP build. For this reason, he is an easy FADE.
Rajon Rondo, $7,100, CHI@NY
The Bulls have clawed their way back into the playoff picture, in part due to Rondo’s huge late surge. Matchup aside, which is absolutely superb, the Bulls are playing their core a high number of minutes and they are soaking up the usage over the past two weeks. Rondo has been a huge factor in their current four-game win streak. He has scored 37-46 FanDuel points in the past four games and is currently on FIRE.
C.J. McCollum, $7,000, POR@UTAH
This is a very easy FADE for anybody with even the slightest pulse on the NBA. The Utah Jazz is a defensive juggernaut and plays at an incredibly slow pace. C.J. has been up and down scoring-wise as of late and will be on the second leg of a back to back. Don’t think twice about passing on C.J. or any other Blazer, for that matter.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, $4,200, BKN@PHI
TLC has scored between 25-33 points in four straight games of playing 32+ minutes. The Sixers have really amped up his playing time since Robert Covington was shut down for the remainder of the season. The youngster has been straight FIRE for anyone who has taken a chance on him. His matchup is fantastic and he will be playing in a pace-up game at home. Luwawu-Cabarrot is a lesser known commodity but with his uber cheap pricing you have to be excited about his production. Lock him in and enjoy the cheap thrill.
LeBron James, $10,700, ORL@CLE
How in the world could James be a fade after he just scored a Herculean 81.7 FanDuel points? He will be heavily owned coming off the double overtime game win against the Pacers. Besides the ownership concerns, LeBron has actually exceeded value only two times in the past ten games. Big names coming off outlier games are the best kind of FADE possible.
Jimmy Butler, $10,000, CHI@NY
Much like LeBron James, Butler has been playing a massive amount of minutes while their respective teams are battling for positioning in the playoffs. Jimmy has been going nuts the past two weeks since D Wade went down with an injury. Last game he shot the ball 26 times in a tough road win against the Pelicans. His matchup is a little easier with the faltering Knicks, who are riddled with injuries and have given up on the season. Butler should be matched up with Carmelo Anthony, who said he will play – this is a positive thing for Jimmy. Anthony won’t play a lick of defense and will be just trying to score the basketball while protecting his body heading into the offseason. Butler should attempt another 20+ shots and if he catches FIRE he should be able to easily clear 5x value and reach the 60’s if the game stays close. He is also an excellent price point pivot off of LeBron.
Draymond Green, $7,700, MIN@GS
Draymond has reached value four times in the past ten games. That isn’t terrible, but it isn’t what we want out of a GPP play. There is a good chance that the Warriors will tone down the minutes for their starters with first place in the West all but locked up. It might not be a drastic minutes reduction but even just five minutes can result in a player failing to reach value. The time for the Warriors being used in GPP’s is winding down and Draymond is an easy FADE.
Serge Ibaka, $5,600, TOR@IND
The Raptors are still fighting for playoff position and play the Pacers who are fighting to stay in the playoffs. This game will absolutely have a playoff atmosphere and should be pretty hard fought. Ibaka has really picked up his play the last couple games and should be locked into 30+ minutes. At his current price he shouldn’t have a hard time meeting value. Lock him in and hope he catches FIRE.
DeMarcus Cousins, $9,600, DEN@NO
Cousins has a good matchup against the fast-paced Nuggets. He most likely will reach the mid 40’s and possibly hit 50 FanDuel points in this game if he stays out of foul trouble. He is playing massive minutes and is a good play, but we are looking for great plays. Cousins will most likely be highly owned and when the crowd is going to overown someone it is smart to FADE the crowd.
Jones Valanciunas, $5,500, TOR@IND
JV has been playing great basketball as of late. He has been playing about five more minutes per game over the past four games and that has resulted in him scoring 30-42 FanDuel points in all four outings. This is the type of upside we want in our GPP’s. If Valanciunas is able to reach 35 while Cousins reaches 45, we aren’t too far behind the 25 percent of the field that will likely own Cousins. With only a 10 point difference and $4,000 saved we would be able to pay up for someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has nearly scored 70 points in each of his last two games. That is the GPP winning approach that we are looking to take on a night full of superb players in prime spots.
I wish you the best of luck tonight. Please tweet me any questions or your big money wins on Twitter at @DFSnDONUTS.