March 21, 2017, 1:29 pm
I am here today to provide a bunch of delicious goodies for my fellow DFS degenerates. Grab some milk – my lactose haters, grab some coconut milk – and enjoy the goodies I am serving up hot and fresh this afternoon.
At this time of year, with a predominantly sharp pool of users still playing NBA, I tend to focus on GPP contests only. Today’s information will be specifically for the GPP crowd over at Fanduel. Let’s get to work.
Steph Curry, $9,900
The Warriors are in the midst of three games in four nights and on the second leg of a road back-to-back, but those two strikes against Steph are not what concern me the most. Tonight he plays the Mavs, who play incredibly slow, and Vegas has the Warriors projected to score 106.8 points tonight – 9.5 points under their season average. Tired legs, slower pace, and less points is a disaster waiting to happen. Add in an 8:30 tip-off time, a full 90 minutes after lock, and you have the potential for Steph to be rested to protect those fragile ankles of his. Let the remaining fish use him for name value while you make the smart decision and fade.
Reggie Jackson $5,000
The Pistons travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets who are among the fastest paced teams in the league. Detroit has a robust implied total of 110, a full 8.3 points above their season average. Jackson has a fantastic price at $5,000 and will be matched up against Spencer Dinwiddie, so why in the world am I suggesting you fade him tonight? It comes down to ownership and Jackson’s uninspiring performance in similar situations.
Last game he played the Suns, who are similar to the Nets in pace and DvP. In that matchup Jackson only scored 22.4 FD points while playing 25 minutes. I can certainly see him playing 25 minutes again, scoring a solid 25 FD points and reaching value but everyone knows his amazing situation and he’ll carry some pretty solid GPP ownership. Later, I will offer you an exceptional pivot, at much lower ownership, that will make this fade much easier to swallow.
Blake Griffin, $9,300
This is an easy fade for me. He is currently priced over production and has blowout risk. They are also on a back-to-back and Doc Rivers routinely rests his stars in these situations. The last time that Blake made even 5x value was on February 26th. Easy fade, move along.
Andre Drummond, $7,900
When teams play against the hapless Nets in a pace-up game with a higher implied total, that usually means you should lock in their stars. This is a tougher fade than the others because Drummond has shown that he can explode for 50 FD points against weak rebounding teams. A quick historical look at Drummond vs. Brook Lopez provided me enough reason to fade, along with the fact that I think there are two cheaper centers with high ceilings that will carry much less ownership tonight. I won’t blame you if you run with Drummond but you’ll be doing so with a decent chunk of the field. Always fade the crowd!
Cory Joseph, $5,000
Let me be clear, Joseph is nothing special as an NBA player. He’s a solid spot starter and can keep the offense afloat and is basically the same in terms of DFS production. Tonight, however, he is at the same price as Reggie Jackson and will have single digit ownership. He is in a phenomenal spot too. Over the past ten games the Chicago Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA against the Point Guard position. A more recent look shows the same exact outcome over the past five games. This will not be a run and gun type game and Joseph most likely tops out around 35 points.
The pivot from Jackson to Joseph is what we are looking for here. If Jackson is owned by 20 percent of the field and scores 25 points while Corey Joseph is at 5 percent and scores 35, you have a significant ten point swing against 20% of the field while already having a very unique build thanks to owning Joseph. I know that was a lot of numbers in one sentence so let me make this as clear as I can, Jackson is a FADE and Joseph is FIRE.
Julius Randle, $6,600
He is locked into a healthy sum of minutes, and minutes equals money. He has played 29+ minutes in nine of his last 10 games. The Lakers are really giving him the opportunity here as the season winds down. In a match-up against the better LA team tonight, Randle is a solid play with a relatively high floor and massive ceiling. In the last ten games Randle has had scores of 40.9, 42.6, 48.6, and peaked at 63.8. That means 40 percent of his games he has reached 7x value or more. While a lot more people will lock in Griffin because of the match-up, we know the smart play will be to take the lesser owned Laker.
Alan Williams, $5,700
A lot of people will be on Hassan Whiteside tonight, but I like his opponent more for opportunity cost. Whiteside and Drummond will probably have a floor of 35 and both have massive ceilings. They will also both be high owned and routinely top off at 40-45 FD points.
That’s good production, but Alan Williams has shown he can get to 35 routinely himself. In the last ten games Big Sauce has scored 33+ six times. We are talking 6-7x production in 60 percent of his games at this price. He has also shown a solid floor by scoring 5x or better in eight of his last ten games. You can bank on him not tanking your team while offering a strong ceiling for his price. At a beefy center position, Williams is in a solid spot to differentiate your lineup and provide excellent production.
It’s easy to hop on the chalk each night in GPP’s from a fear of missing out. That will usually result in missing the cash line or barely clearing it for two or three times your buy-in. We aren’t looking to just cash, we are looking to win. These GPP’s are top heavy and if you’re fine with doubling and tripling your GPP entry, then just go play double and triple-ups where the cash line is lower and a higher percentage of users win. Pivot off the chalk and don’t fear going for broke.
Best of luck tonight and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS. I would love to hear from you or see the winnings you’re pulling in.
July 4, 2020, 2:39 pmJimmy ButlerSG, Miami Heat
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald is reporting that a third Heat player has tested positive for COVID-19.
Derrick Jones Jr. is the only known player, though Jackson adds that the two latest cases are both rotation players. Florida is in terrible shape at the moment and the Heat may need to enter the bubble without three of their rotation options — those players may still join the team later but will miss out on valuable practice time. The NBA is going full steam ahead on their restart plans but the virus is going to determine whether or not things actually unfold according to plan.
Source: Barry Jackson on Twitter
July 4, 2020, 1:21 pmLandry ShametSG, Los Angeles Clippers
Shams Charania reports that Landry Shamet has tested positive for COVID-19 and is unlikely to join the Clippers for their trip to Orlando this week.
That leaves the door open for Shamet to rejoin the team closer to the season's restart, assuming he is feeling okay. Just yesterday it was announced that the Clippers closed their facilities after a positive test, so it appears Shamet's case was the culprit. The sharpshooter is averaging 27.5 minutes per game this season so if he's forced to sit out the Orlando restart it could have big ramifications on LA's backcourt rotation.
Source: Shams Charania on Twitter
July 4, 2020, 12:18 pmLeBron JamesSF, Los Angeles Lakers
The NBA has released its schedule of scrimmages for the Orlando restart, with games beginning on July 22.
The league has tried to match up teams that are unlikely opponents for these scrimmages so nobody gets a really good look at what a potential playoff matchup might want to run. For example, the first day of scrimmages will see the Nuggets face the Wizards, the Nets take on the Pelicans, the Clippers against the Magic and the Kings vs. the Heat. Scrimmages will run through July 28.
Source: Chris Haynes on Twitter
July 4, 2020, 9:35 amCaris LeVertPG-SG, Brooklyn Nets
Caris LeVert embraces challenge of being a leader.
LeVert has been an active participant in the racial inequality protests and admitted that basketball is very minor right now compared to everything else going on in the world but is ready for the NBA restart saying, "For me, it’s just taking on that challenge of being a leader, being the leader of that group, going down there with some of the most experience on the team, playoff experience." In the 16 games since rejoining the starting lineup, LeVert has put up All-Star numbers with 24.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists, while shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range and leading the Nets to a 9-7 record over that span. The upward trajectory continues for the Nets' 20th overall pick in the 2016 draft.
July 4, 2020, 9:16 amJordan CrawfordSG, Free Agent
Jordan Crawford has agreed to a deal with Russia's Lokomotiv Kuban.
Crawford last played in the NBA for the Pelicans in 2018 with career averages of 12.2 points, 2.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 24.4 minutes. The career journeyman has played for five NBA teams since 2010 with a few stints with China in between. Since the beginning of 2019, he has played in Israel, China, Germany and now we can add Russia to that list.
July 4, 2020, 8:13 amLance StephensonSG, Free Agent
Lance Stephenson is ineligible to sign with the Pacers according to Scott Agness.
Stephenson to the Pacers was being discussed in early March and made sense now with Victor Oladipo choosing to sit out the remainder of the season but this move apparently will not happen. The 29-year old Stephenson spent this past season in China where he averaged 26.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists for the CBA's Flying Leopards.
Source: Scott Agness on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 10:10 pmAnthony DavisPF-C, Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis has high expectations for the Lakers when they resume play later in July in Orlando, citing the long layoff as a favorable development for his squad.
As if the Lakers weren't already squarely in the hunt for an NBA championship. When speaking to ESPN's Dave McMenamin, Davis said that he believes their "chances are higher just because we’re all rested and we’re all ready to go.” Depth seems to be the most glaring issue potentially facing the Lakers as they prepare to make the trip to Disney World, as defensive stalwart Avery Bradley recently opted out of the remainder of the season. Bradley was subsequently replaced by well-traveled veteran guard J.R. Smith (who has a long history of playoff runs alongside LeBron James with the Cavs), but the team is still unsure of veteran center Dwight Howard's status the rest of the way. Other than Howard, the Lakers' roster is seemingly set for Orlando. Davis sounds like he's ready to rock, however.
July 3, 2020, 8:28 pmDeng AdelPF, Brooklyn Nets
Deng Adel, who played 19 games for the Cavs last season as a two-way player, is being pursued by the Illawara Hawks of Australia's NBL, which, notably was the team 18-year-old LaMelo Ball played for last season (and has attempted to purchase).
Adel had two short stints before last season with the Rockets and Nets in the Summer League and the preseason, respectively. He was originally a standout at Louisville but went undrafted in 2018 before hitching on with the Cavs on a two-way pact. This season he had been playing for the Long Island Nets, the Nets' G League affiliate, prior to the pause and ultimately the end of the G League season. Adel had registered averages of 11.1 points, 4.2 boards and 2.6 assists to that point. Also of note, Adel spent the lion's share of his childhood in Australia after his family moved from South Sudan around the time he was eight.
July 3, 2020, 4:35 pmDarius MillerSF, New Orleans Pelicans
Darius Miller is unsure if he will be able to play in Orlando, as he continues to recover from a torn a ruptured right Achillies.
Due to the lockdown, Miller has been unable to participate in any live-action, or else he would have played in 3-on-3 or 5-on-5 by now. At this point, it would be surprising for the Pelicans to risk his health by pushing for him to participate in the eight-game regular season.
Source: Will Guillory on Twitter
July 3, 2020, 4:26 pmJJ RedickSG, New Orleans Pelicans
J.J. Redick has intentionally lost 10 pounds since the quarantine began.
Redick's goal was to get back to his playing weight during his college days at Duke, and it's not a surprise that one of the most dedicated workers in the league was able to drop weight during the coronavirus pandemic. Redick's shooting will be sorely needed when the Pelicans try to chase down the Grizzlies for a playoff spot, but if he does not come out of the gates making an impact the Pelicans are likely to shift to another hot hand on their deep roster. Redick has only seen 26.4 minutes per game this season, and that is going to limit his impact to strictly 3-pointers (2.9 per game).
Source: Daniel Sallerson on Twitter