March 21, 2017, 1:29 pm
I am here today to provide a bunch of delicious goodies for my fellow DFS degenerates. Grab some milk – my lactose haters, grab some coconut milk – and enjoy the goodies I am serving up hot and fresh this afternoon.
At this time of year, with a predominantly sharp pool of users still playing NBA, I tend to focus on GPP contests only. Today’s information will be specifically for the GPP crowd over at Fanduel. Let’s get to work.
Steph Curry, $9,900
The Warriors are in the midst of three games in four nights and on the second leg of a road back-to-back, but those two strikes against Steph are not what concern me the most. Tonight he plays the Mavs, who play incredibly slow, and Vegas has the Warriors projected to score 106.8 points tonight – 9.5 points under their season average. Tired legs, slower pace, and less points is a disaster waiting to happen. Add in an 8:30 tip-off time, a full 90 minutes after lock, and you have the potential for Steph to be rested to protect those fragile ankles of his. Let the remaining fish use him for name value while you make the smart decision and fade.
Reggie Jackson $5,000
The Pistons travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets who are among the fastest paced teams in the league. Detroit has a robust implied total of 110, a full 8.3 points above their season average. Jackson has a fantastic price at $5,000 and will be matched up against Spencer Dinwiddie, so why in the world am I suggesting you fade him tonight? It comes down to ownership and Jackson’s uninspiring performance in similar situations.
Last game he played the Suns, who are similar to the Nets in pace and DvP. In that matchup Jackson only scored 22.4 FD points while playing 25 minutes. I can certainly see him playing 25 minutes again, scoring a solid 25 FD points and reaching value but everyone knows his amazing situation and he’ll carry some pretty solid GPP ownership. Later, I will offer you an exceptional pivot, at much lower ownership, that will make this fade much easier to swallow.
Blake Griffin, $9,300
This is an easy fade for me. He is currently priced over production and has blowout risk. They are also on a back-to-back and Doc Rivers routinely rests his stars in these situations. The last time that Blake made even 5x value was on February 26th. Easy fade, move along.
Andre Drummond, $7,900
When teams play against the hapless Nets in a pace-up game with a higher implied total, that usually means you should lock in their stars. This is a tougher fade than the others because Drummond has shown that he can explode for 50 FD points against weak rebounding teams. A quick historical look at Drummond vs. Brook Lopez provided me enough reason to fade, along with the fact that I think there are two cheaper centers with high ceilings that will carry much less ownership tonight. I won’t blame you if you run with Drummond but you’ll be doing so with a decent chunk of the field. Always fade the crowd!
Cory Joseph, $5,000
Let me be clear, Joseph is nothing special as an NBA player. He’s a solid spot starter and can keep the offense afloat and is basically the same in terms of DFS production. Tonight, however, he is at the same price as Reggie Jackson and will have single digit ownership. He is in a phenomenal spot too. Over the past ten games the Chicago Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA against the Point Guard position. A more recent look shows the same exact outcome over the past five games. This will not be a run and gun type game and Joseph most likely tops out around 35 points.
The pivot from Jackson to Joseph is what we are looking for here. If Jackson is owned by 20 percent of the field and scores 25 points while Corey Joseph is at 5 percent and scores 35, you have a significant ten point swing against 20% of the field while already having a very unique build thanks to owning Joseph. I know that was a lot of numbers in one sentence so let me make this as clear as I can, Jackson is a FADE and Joseph is FIRE.
Julius Randle, $6,600
He is locked into a healthy sum of minutes, and minutes equals money. He has played 29+ minutes in nine of his last 10 games. The Lakers are really giving him the opportunity here as the season winds down. In a match-up against the better LA team tonight, Randle is a solid play with a relatively high floor and massive ceiling. In the last ten games Randle has had scores of 40.9, 42.6, 48.6, and peaked at 63.8. That means 40 percent of his games he has reached 7x value or more. While a lot more people will lock in Griffin because of the match-up, we know the smart play will be to take the lesser owned Laker.
Alan Williams, $5,700
A lot of people will be on Hassan Whiteside tonight, but I like his opponent more for opportunity cost. Whiteside and Drummond will probably have a floor of 35 and both have massive ceilings. They will also both be high owned and routinely top off at 40-45 FD points.
That’s good production, but Alan Williams has shown he can get to 35 routinely himself. In the last ten games Big Sauce has scored 33+ six times. We are talking 6-7x production in 60 percent of his games at this price. He has also shown a solid floor by scoring 5x or better in eight of his last ten games. You can bank on him not tanking your team while offering a strong ceiling for his price. At a beefy center position, Williams is in a solid spot to differentiate your lineup and provide excellent production.
It’s easy to hop on the chalk each night in GPP’s from a fear of missing out. That will usually result in missing the cash line or barely clearing it for two or three times your buy-in. We aren’t looking to just cash, we are looking to win. These GPP’s are top heavy and if you’re fine with doubling and tripling your GPP entry, then just go play double and triple-ups where the cash line is lower and a higher percentage of users win. Pivot off the chalk and don’t fear going for broke.
Best of luck tonight and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS. I would love to hear from you or see the winnings you’re pulling in.