March 21, 2017, 1:29 pm
I am here today to provide a bunch of delicious goodies for my fellow DFS degenerates. Grab some milk – my lactose haters, grab some coconut milk – and enjoy the goodies I am serving up hot and fresh this afternoon.
At this time of year, with a predominantly sharp pool of users still playing NBA, I tend to focus on GPP contests only. Today’s information will be specifically for the GPP crowd over at Fanduel. Let’s get to work.
Steph Curry, $9,900
The Warriors are in the midst of three games in four nights and on the second leg of a road back-to-back, but those two strikes against Steph are not what concern me the most. Tonight he plays the Mavs, who play incredibly slow, and Vegas has the Warriors projected to score 106.8 points tonight – 9.5 points under their season average. Tired legs, slower pace, and less points is a disaster waiting to happen. Add in an 8:30 tip-off time, a full 90 minutes after lock, and you have the potential for Steph to be rested to protect those fragile ankles of his. Let the remaining fish use him for name value while you make the smart decision and fade.
Reggie Jackson $5,000
The Pistons travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets who are among the fastest paced teams in the league. Detroit has a robust implied total of 110, a full 8.3 points above their season average. Jackson has a fantastic price at $5,000 and will be matched up against Spencer Dinwiddie, so why in the world am I suggesting you fade him tonight? It comes down to ownership and Jackson’s uninspiring performance in similar situations.
Last game he played the Suns, who are similar to the Nets in pace and DvP. In that matchup Jackson only scored 22.4 FD points while playing 25 minutes. I can certainly see him playing 25 minutes again, scoring a solid 25 FD points and reaching value but everyone knows his amazing situation and he’ll carry some pretty solid GPP ownership. Later, I will offer you an exceptional pivot, at much lower ownership, that will make this fade much easier to swallow.
Blake Griffin, $9,300
This is an easy fade for me. He is currently priced over production and has blowout risk. They are also on a back-to-back and Doc Rivers routinely rests his stars in these situations. The last time that Blake made even 5x value was on February 26th. Easy fade, move along.
Andre Drummond, $7,900
When teams play against the hapless Nets in a pace-up game with a higher implied total, that usually means you should lock in their stars. This is a tougher fade than the others because Drummond has shown that he can explode for 50 FD points against weak rebounding teams. A quick historical look at Drummond vs. Brook Lopez provided me enough reason to fade, along with the fact that I think there are two cheaper centers with high ceilings that will carry much less ownership tonight. I won’t blame you if you run with Drummond but you’ll be doing so with a decent chunk of the field. Always fade the crowd!
Cory Joseph, $5,000
Let me be clear, Joseph is nothing special as an NBA player. He’s a solid spot starter and can keep the offense afloat and is basically the same in terms of DFS production. Tonight, however, he is at the same price as Reggie Jackson and will have single digit ownership. He is in a phenomenal spot too. Over the past ten games the Chicago Bulls are the second-worst team in the NBA against the Point Guard position. A more recent look shows the same exact outcome over the past five games. This will not be a run and gun type game and Joseph most likely tops out around 35 points.
The pivot from Jackson to Joseph is what we are looking for here. If Jackson is owned by 20 percent of the field and scores 25 points while Corey Joseph is at 5 percent and scores 35, you have a significant ten point swing against 20% of the field while already having a very unique build thanks to owning Joseph. I know that was a lot of numbers in one sentence so let me make this as clear as I can, Jackson is a FADE and Joseph is FIRE.
Julius Randle, $6,600
He is locked into a healthy sum of minutes, and minutes equals money. He has played 29+ minutes in nine of his last 10 games. The Lakers are really giving him the opportunity here as the season winds down. In a match-up against the better LA team tonight, Randle is a solid play with a relatively high floor and massive ceiling. In the last ten games Randle has had scores of 40.9, 42.6, 48.6, and peaked at 63.8. That means 40 percent of his games he has reached 7x value or more. While a lot more people will lock in Griffin because of the match-up, we know the smart play will be to take the lesser owned Laker.
Alan Williams, $5,700
A lot of people will be on Hassan Whiteside tonight, but I like his opponent more for opportunity cost. Whiteside and Drummond will probably have a floor of 35 and both have massive ceilings. They will also both be high owned and routinely top off at 40-45 FD points.
That’s good production, but Alan Williams has shown he can get to 35 routinely himself. In the last ten games Big Sauce has scored 33+ six times. We are talking 6-7x production in 60 percent of his games at this price. He has also shown a solid floor by scoring 5x or better in eight of his last ten games. You can bank on him not tanking your team while offering a strong ceiling for his price. At a beefy center position, Williams is in a solid spot to differentiate your lineup and provide excellent production.
It’s easy to hop on the chalk each night in GPP’s from a fear of missing out. That will usually result in missing the cash line or barely clearing it for two or three times your buy-in. We aren’t looking to just cash, we are looking to win. These GPP’s are top heavy and if you’re fine with doubling and tripling your GPP entry, then just go play double and triple-ups where the cash line is lower and a higher percentage of users win. Pivot off the chalk and don’t fear going for broke.
Best of luck tonight and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS. I would love to hear from you or see the winnings you’re pulling in.
September 21, 2019, 9:45 pmKevin KnoxSF, New York Knicks
Coach Fizdale told the Knicks players that no starters have been determined and players had to earn their minutes.
Kevin Knox will battle with veteran Marcus Morris for the starting small forward spot. Knox has been working on getting his body stronger to be able to take on more contact on drives to the basket. Last season as a rookie, he averaged 12.8 points on a putrid 37 percent from the field. Knox will look to get more looks closer to the basket and increase his field goal percentage to more respectable levels. Knox provided little else outside of points and rebounds last season and will need to improve his shooting and defense to be considered a standard-league player.
Source: New York Post
September 21, 2019, 5:13 pmBol BolC, Denver Nuggets
According to Nick Kosmider of The Athletic, Bol Bol could spend his entire rookie season in the G-League.
Bol Bol was not drafted to be an immediate impact player, but just fell too late fore the Nuggets liking. The 44th overall pick needs to bulk up and show that he could take the bumps and bruises before having his chance on the big stage.
Source: Nick Kosmider of The Athletic
September 21, 2019, 9:21 amKawhi LeonardSF, Los Angeles Clippers
After speaking with Doc Rivers and Lawrence Frank, Dan Woike's takeaway is that Kawhi Leonard's "load management" will not be as strict as it was last year.
It was reported in July that Kawhi said he wants to play all next season fully and approach load management on a game-to-game basis so this is further confirmation that he will most likely play more than the 60 games he played last year but surely won't play all 82 either. Kurt Helin of NBC Sports speculates that this could be for several reasons. One could be that Leonard can take on more now that he is a little healthier while he believes the Clippers might also limit his per-game minutes to help him play more games. The other idea is that because the Western Conference is so deep, the Clippers will not be able to get a good seed if Leonard sits too many games. Fantasy wise, Leonard finished last season seventh in per game value but 18th in total value since he played only 60 games. Near the top of the second round would be a great place to snag him if he plays around 70 games this season.
Source: Dan Woike on Twitter
September 21, 2019, 8:31 amMalik BeasleySG, Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets want to extend Malik Beasley and Juan Hernagomez before the October 21 deadline.
The Nuggets already locked up one of their 2016 first-round picks (Jamal Murray) to a long-term deal and now want to do the same with their other two 2016 first-round picks, Hernangomez and Beasley. If not, the two will likely become restricted free-agents at the end of the season. Both players saw stretches of big minutes last season due to injuries but at full health, Beasley was around 20 minutes per game while Hernangomez was at around 10. Fantasy wise, neither player puts up big defensive stats but Beasley is a very efficient shooter with low turnovers, knocking down 2.0 triples per game last year, putting him near top-150 value at only 23.2 minutes per game. Hernangomez is a decent rebounder and knocked down 0.9 triples per game but he would need closer to 30 minutes per game to be a factor in standard leagues.
Source: Denver Post
September 20, 2019, 8:49 pmOG AnunobySF, Toronto Raptors
Coach Nick Nurse intends to put OG Anunoby "back out there in a primary role."
With Kawhi Leonard vacating the starting small forward spot, Anunoby is the leading candidate to take the role. Before the arrival of Leonard, Anunoby started 62 games in his rookie season. Last season he started 6 out of 67 games, and missed the entire playoffs due to an emergency appendectomy. He averaged 7.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.3 blocks over 20.2 minutes per game, while shooting 45.3 percent from the floor, 33.2 percent from 3-point range and 58.1 percent from the free-throw line. He can be picked up as a late round flier in drafts.
Source: The Athletic
September 20, 2019, 4:03 pmDaryl MaconPG, Miami Heat
The Heat have signed Daryl Macon.
Macon getting picked up by another NBA squad after a solid Summer League campaign is not a shocker. If he were to crack the rotation he would post a nice assist rate, but it is unlikely Macon will be getting playing time unless something goes terribly wrong for the Heat this season.
September 20, 2019, 1:10 pmTahjere McCallF, Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks signed Tahjere McCall from their Summer League team.
This is just a depth signing for the Hawks. He shouldn't see much court time on the NBA floor if he makes the main roster out of camp
Source: Kevin Chouinard on Twitter
September 20, 2019, 11:58 amThabo SefoloshaSF, Houston Rockets
Marc Stein is reporting that the Rockets will sign Thabo Sefolosha.
Sefolosha was among the names at a recent mini camp, and he should make for a nice fit as a defensive stopper off the bench. The Rockets have a pretty thin group of reserves so we'd expect Sefolosha to be a regular rotation player, which puts him on the board as a steals specialist in deep leagues.
Source: Marc Stein on Twitter
September 19, 2019, 3:22 pmTyler ZellerC, Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have signed C Tyler Zeller to the training camp roster on Thursday.
Zeller played all of six games last season with the Hawks and Grizzlies. Zeller will try to latch on as a third-string C for the Nuggets' deep frontcourt. Zeller is off the fantasy radar.
Source: Chris Dempsey on Twitter
September 19, 2019, 3:03 pmLuke KennardSG, Detroit Pistons
Coach Dwane Casey said that he is not sure if he will start Luke Kennard or have him run a lot of the second-team offense.
In addition, Casey mentioned that Kennard dealt with some knee tendinitis earlier this summer. Kennard is likely competing with Bruce Brown Jr. for the starting two-guard spot. We'll see how the rotation starts to shape in the preseason, but both players will get minutes either way.