March 28, 2017, 10:31 am
It appears that we will have one incredible slate to create the greatest roster in the history of DFS. Many people will inevitably fall into the same trap tonight and blur the line of skill. Vegas is projecting some massive totals and several competitive games that feature teams in excellent pace-up spots. Will you grab yourself a nice piece of chalk and create chalky team on the chalkiest of nights or will you rise above the rest and have your name echoed for eternity in the Hall of Champions? Put down the chalk, grab your apple fritter, and let’s get to work.
Steph Curry, $9,900 FD, GS@HOU
This is going to be a tough fade for a lot of fish tonight. He is in a pace-up spot, a highly competitive game, and has a Vegas implied score of 116 points. This game will absolutely have a playoff atmosphere and hopefully will be more fun to watch that the Spurs vs. Cavs game, or should I say bloodbath, that was on last night. This is a nationally televised game and a lot of people will want a piece of action while watching this game. For ownership purposes I think Steph Curry is a fantastic, albeit frightening FADE.
Damian Lillard, $9,400 FD, DEN@POR
Dame is the reason why I am fading Steph Curry tonight. He is the best price point pivot in recent memory. Not only does Damian have the best DvP match-up on the night against the Nuggets backcourt, he also has a +6 implied team total compared to their season average. The Blazers have a team implied total of 114 points, which is only two points less than the Warriors. Dame has a better match-up, similar team total, and is in a pace-up game. He is a lock tonight and absolute FIRE tonight at the point guard position.
Klay Thompson, $7,000 FD, GS@HOU
Klay is in an excellent spot here tonight. He has a good chance to make value tonight and score 5x his salary which results in 35 FanDuel points. That is nothing to scoff at, but hardly what we are looking for in our GPP approach. Even if he does exceed that he might top off at 40 points while carrying 25% ownership. I am not impressed. If he fails to reach value tonight you could leap a quarter of the field by deciding to FADE Klay.
Tim Hardaway Jr., $5,900 FD, PHO@ATL
Hardaway Jr. is in an excellent spot tonight against the defensively deficient backcourt of the Suns. The Hawks have a massive projected team total that is +8 above their season average and rounds off at 111 points. They are in a pace-up game and Hardaway has been shooting between 16-20 shots per night over the past week. At his current price he has exceeded value in two of his last three games. He recently popped off for 42 FanDuel points and the Hawks are still injured up and down the roster. Lock him in tonight and hope that this FIRE pivot doesn’t gain traction as the day progresses.
Paul George, $8,700 FD, MIN@IND
PG13 is the highest priced SF tonight and for good reason. In the DFS world, he is known as a player who lacks consistency. Over the past six games he has scored over 40 points four times with three of those totals being between 48-52. That is excellent production. However, there are choices at this position tonight at lower price points that offer similar upside and are locked into massive minutes. He’s an easy FADE.
T.J. Warren, $6,400 FD, PHO@ATL
T.J. has been serving as the number two scoring option for the Suns over the past two weeks ever since the team shut down Eric Bledsoe. He is playing massive minutes now as the Suns are rolling out an incredibly young lineup and letting them play until their wheels fall off. Over Warren’s past five games he has played 37+ minutes in four of them and has scored between 33 and 44 in each of those games. With his current situation he is almost guaranteed to make value at 5x and offers 7x upside by scoring in the mid 40’s. He’s easily a FIRE pick and don’t overthink this position.
Nikola Jokic, $10,300 FD, DEN@POR
Jokic has been gaining some serious popularity in the DFS and social media world with his fancy passes and smooth presence with the basketball. The Nuggets are getting healthier and Jokic has played under 30 minutes in three of his last five games. At his current price point and with the concern of playing time, he is an easy popularity FADE tonight.
Richaun Holmes, $5,700 FD, PHI@BKN
Richaun has the opportunity to shine vs the Nets. They are an incredibly fast paced team and turn the ball over frequently. Holmes is incredibly athletic and Jahlil Okafor has already been ruled out of this one, meaning Holmes should be locked into 30-ish minutes. In three out of his last four games, when playing 29+ minutes, Richaun has scored 31, 37, and 51 fantasy points. That type of massive upside at a sub-6k price is exactly what we are looking for in our GPP approach. Holmes is a great guy to FIRE up tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic, $6,700 FD, DEN@POR
Jusuf is playing the team that traded him at the deadline and has a feel of the ultimate narrative street pick. I encourage you to avoid falling into this trap. Nurkic has played less than 30 minutes in the past five games and the foul prone center has a difficult match-up tonight. He does possess massive upside and still could easily make value tonight, but we want more for our GPP build. He’s a FADE.
Cody Zeller, $5,300 FD, MIL@CHA
This is a FIRE pick tonight. In four out of his last five games Zeller has played 29+ minutes and scored 29-37 points. In his one down game he scored 18 points, which at $5,300 will not sink your lineup. He is safe, has upside, and is consistent. Lock and load the best of the Zeller family.
Best of luck to all of you tonight. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and send me screen shots of all of your winnings, I have a feeling tonight is our night!