September 25, 2020, 11:12 am
Miami-Boston Showdown Strategy:
By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
Can we play Tyler Herro again?
Tyler Herro is coming off one of the best rookie performances we’ve seen in the playoffs in a long time with a 37 point, 6 rebound, 3 assist performance on 14-21 shooting. Amazing. Coming up on this slate, we’re very likely to see massive ownership head his way as his game is going to be fresh in everybody’s mind.
He did see a big price hike ($6,600 to $7,800) and you’re now paying a similar price tag for Herro that you are for Dragic ($8,200) Kemba ($8,800) and he’s now more expensive than Marcus Smart ($7,200) and Gordon Hayward ($6,400). In cash games, he’s still a perfectly viable option with his locked in minutes role of 33+ a game and being a primary offensive creator when he’s on the floor. In tournaments however, I’d lean towards fading him completely and betting on lower ownership from the other guys in this tier. I love Herro and his game, but if I can get an ownership edge playing Smart, Kemba, Hayward and Dragic, I’d prefer that route at these price-tags.
The last game gave us Herro as the cheapest rotation player for someone who actually shoots the ball (Looking squarely at your Mr. Daniel Theis), to put in the captain spot while still allowing us to jam in a bunch of the studs from this slate. With the Herro price-up, that build isn’t viable anymore with Herro, but another lead play has potentially arisen with Hayward at $6,400. He received an $800 price decrease despite playing 30 minutes in his first 2 starts back and scoring 26.25 and 27.75 DKP respectively. They might not overextend him much further than 30 minutes, but I think at this point, we can rely on 28-30 minutes as a solid minutes floor for him.
Putting him at captain lets you get back to Tatum, Bam and Jimmy as a core in the flex spots. Also opens up opportunities to go back to Herro or Smart or more balanced with Theis and Crowder in that build.
Tatum at captain has been the prevailing build in cash games for good reason; he by far has the highest upside of anyone on these two teams. I think it makes more sense to save money and continue to try to stack a more quality overall team rather than expensive Tatum and sketchier cheap plays.
Who to Captain?
I talked about Hayward as captain in the lineup construction section and he’ll be my favorite play in both formats. He makes too much sense on this slate where we need a cheaper rotation player to create lineups with a better floor/ceiling combo.
If looking for ownership leverage, Dragic, Kemba, Smart, Brown and even Jimmy are going to be lower owned captains. Most of the ownership will concentrate around Tatum and Bam as it’s been all series while Herro will get the game log watchers to chase him.
Robert Williams ($2,600)
If you’re going below Duncan Robinson at $4800 on this slate, Robert Williams is my favorite punt with how this series is playing out and how poorly Theis is playing defending Bam. Theis new offensive role has been to stand in the corner to stay out of the way of drivers into the paint. He’s had 0 success defending Bam defensively. That leads me to think we could see a more extended look at Robert Williams who has more athleticism and energy to stick with Bam tighter on defense. Williams has always been a tremendous FPPM player, so if we can get him to 13-15 minutes, he’s very much in play at $2,600 to jam in everyone else.
In a similar fashion to last night’s game where Howard replaced McGee in the starting 5 and people were slow to react (Howard only 50% in the flex, when he should have been 100%), I could see scenarios where Stevens starts Williams in this one to change up their defensive look against Bam. It’s a pure guess on my part and I don’t know if Stevens would be willing to give up on Theis starting, but it’s still something to keep in mind with how bad Theis has been.
The 10-second Cliff Notes:
Herro is still playable in all formats, despite the price-hike, but I’d look elsewhere in tournaments at likely high captain ownership.
Hayward is my favorite captain for cash games and tournaments to fit in everyone else.
Robert Williams is completely viable in all formats and is the only player I like below Duncan Robinson at $4,800
That’s it! A little more complicated of a slate as pricing gets tighter as the series moves on, but this game has always been more conducive to building good showdown teams than the Denver-Laker game. Please let me know if you have any questions (@AsmusSports) on twitter. I’d be happy to discuss the slate or anything else related to DFS with you! Best of luck
September 24, 2020, 12:08 am
LAL-DEN Showdown Strategy: By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
Can we afford anybody?
As we head into game 4 of the series, DK has decided to severely price up the studs, making it next to impossible to jam all 4 as we’ve been doing most of this series in showdown:
LeBron James Game 3: $12,000 & Game 4: $12,800
Anthony Davis Game 3: $11,600 & Game 4: $12,400
Nikola Jokic Game 3: $11,000 & Game 4: $12,000
Jamal Murray Game 3: $9,400 & Game 4: $10,600
So the Dozier-captain, jam-all-4-studs-with-Caruso lineups no longer work. Honestly, this is a good thing for us because of the added uncertainty for people to know who to play. It was too easy to just play the 4 studs with two cheap values and there has been significant overlap in the series. We now get to dive a bit deeper into possible lineup construction whereas the field won’t have the same chalk build to turn to.
The most effective cash constructions are going to have either two studs in regular spots with a more balanced approach everywhere else or 3 studs in the regular spots with a shakier captain and a shakier rest of your rotation. Both are viable depending on your level of risk tolerance. The price increase makes it incredibly difficult to trust the floor of the 3 stud team and you’d have to be taking tremendous leaps of faith. With two studs, you can fit this sort of player pool around them:
Rajon Rondo – Captain
Jerami Grant – Captain
Paul Millsap – Captain
With the 3 stud build in regular spot, you’re looking at something along these lines as a player core:
Harris – Captain
Caruso – Captain
It’s a tougher slate for cash than we’ve had in this series and the most important factor is going to be how much higher the ceiling for guys like Grant, Millsap and Rondo are than the cheap punts actually are while allowing you to access the Murray ceiling in a regular spot.
Jamal Murray ($10,600)
It seems crazy to mention Murray in the same vein as Jokic, LeBron and Davis, but Murray has played so well over such a large sample now in the playoffs (17 GP, 39.1 MPG 26.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.5 SPG, 1.0 SPG, 27.7% USG, 63% TS, 45.9 DKPPG) as the co-star to Jokic for this Nuggets team. Malone just can’t afford to take him off the floor and his minutes expectation in a competitive game has been outrageous (44, 44, 29 in a blowout, 45,41,40,44,38,40,33 in a blowout) over his last ten games. He doesn’t have near the same floor as the other 3 studs do, but on a slate where salary is extremely tight; fitting in Murray’s ceiling for basically $2k cheaper makes a huge difference with the rest of your construction. In tournaments, he should be your heaviest owned stud player with people likely not wanting to pay his big price increase, but still firmly in play as one of your studs for cash games.
Gary Harris ($4,200)
I’m more than willing to keep going back to Harris as I really think they need his defense on the floor for them to stay competitive. He got a massive price decrease ($5,600 to $4200) and I think he’s the best piece to put in captain when trying to jam in 3 stud players. His floor is extremely low (11.5, 6.5, 7 DKP the last 3 games), but he’s also a far more talented player than his results have shown in this series. I’m willing to bet on that talent showing out at some point and getting a player I know should be on the floor for 30 minutes that lets me play 3 studs on this incredibly price sensitive slate makes him a priority player for my teams.
Rajon Rondo ($7,400)
If you’re not going the Harris at captain route in cash games, I do really like the idea of Rondo in the captain in a 2-stud-more-balanced build with the tighter pricing. He’s shown a solid DKP floor throughout the playoffs (hasn’t gone below 20 DKP in the past 8 games) with 3 games in the high 30’s showing his ceiling potential. There are absolutely scenarios where Rondo outscores Murray and becomes the slate winner. You just aren’t getting that with Harris or the other cheaper punts you play at the captain slot.
A few other notes:
With regard to salary I’d rank the studs: Jokic–LeBron–Murray–Davis
Be sure to watch for news if Howard replaces McGee in the starting 5. Not that Howard would all of a sudden play 25+ minutes, but I’d be comfortable projecting him in the 18-19 range, which would put him squarely in play at $3,600
For the Laker guards (KCP, Caruso, Green) just pick whichever one fits your salary the best. My general preference is Caruso since I think he’s the best player of that threesome, but there’s nothing that stands out in the numbers that differentiates the 3.
That’s it! This is one of the more exciting showdown slates we’ve had since they adjusted pricing so much. I’ll be entering a few more tournament teams than normal, hoping to capitalize on more uncertainty with roster construction. Please let me know if you have any questions on my twitter @AsmusSports. I’d be happy to talk roster construction or any of other DFS questions you might have with you. Best of luck!
September 22, 2020, 1:07 am
Lakers-Nuggets Showdown Strategy: By: David Menkov (@Dmenk33) on Twitter
DEN-LAL Showdown Slate Strategy:
As we head into a must win (ish) scenario for the Nuggets in Game 3 here are a few storylines to watch:
This is certainly another interesting game to call given the added incentive on the Nuggets side to make it a series, while on the flipside the Lakers are looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Given the high tiered stud price tags, we are going to look at a scenario that can garner ownership of 3 studs. There are plays to be made for a top heavy captain pick (i.e. Jokic, Davis, or James) but I am going to focus on a guy coming back from injury in Gary Harris on the Nuggets. As always, facilitate a build that can maximize Fantasy point potential.
Capt. Gary Harris ($8,400):
He is quite a Hail Mary as a captains pick, but all the more reason to utilize him here and save some cash for the studs below, at only $8,400 almost half of the price of the other top tiers players he can produce just enough to hit value. His series stats have been underwhelming, but I would focus my attention on his production at the end of the Clippers series where he was consistently putting up 28 to 31 fantasy points respectively. He is a key piece in a lineup so heavily focused on Murray and Jokic, with the potential for some 3s and steals look for him to make an impact in game 3
Capt. Nikola Jokic ($16,500):
My initial lean is that Jokic ends up the least popular captain of the 3 studs, despite coming off the massive game 2 against the Lakers. People just love to jam the Laker duo in, so I’m looking to take advantage of that here by fading the massive LeBron ownership as a captain. He may end up getting some love given his resurgence in game #2, but I believe he will get far less attention at a slightly lower price tag to Lebron and AD. Lock and load Nikola Jokic, as he will be extra motivated to make it a series as well
Who to target from the Lakers?
LeBron James ($18,000)
Priced at the highest from the Lakers coming off one of his worst passing games of the playoffs, why not play Lebron, especially with his hunger to close out the Nuggets quickly something nobody has successfully accomplished to date in these bubble playoffs. A guy you have to consider although, rostering will leave little room for both Anthony Davis and or Jokic something to keep in mind.
Anthony Davis ($17,400)
In a similar vein to Jokic, Davis gets forgotten a bit as most try to gravitate towards LeBron as much as they can. You’re getting a cheaper tag although slightly cheaper at best, that really comes into play on this slate and accessing the best upside on the slate with Davis. Especially coming off a huge step back game winner, I like him to continue and put up Elite value especially at a $600 savings to his running mate in Lebron
Looking forward to this game, which is expected to stay close similar to Game #2. There are certainly different builds you can play with swapping out the mid tiered Garry Harris options as captains with high priced studs like Jokic or Davis. It will come down to a matter of salary cap, and I am more than happy to help decipher your start or sit questions on Twitter @Dmenk33 for all inquiries whether they are showdown related or otherwise NBA. Good luck to everyone!
Captain: Anthony Davis $17,400
Utility: Nikola Jokic $11,000
Utility: Torrey Craig: $2,800
Utility: Jamal Murray: $9,400
Utility: Kentavious Caldwell- Pope: $4,800
Utility: Danny Green: $4,600
September 18, 2020, 12:16 pm
Lakers-Nuggets Showdown Strategy
by: Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports on Twitter)
DEN-LAL Showdown Slate Strategy:
As we head into a new series, we are able to get an opportunity to play out a few different scenarios with how this series will play out before others catch on. For Denver to keep pace, I see a few things that needs to happen:
– Jokic completely dominates the C combo of Howard and McGee and they’re forced to play Davis at C to try and slow him down.
– Grant is able to stay out of foul trouble as the primary defender on LeBron. If he gets into early foul trouble, LeBron has the tremendous quickness advantage over Millsap and would eat Porter Jr.’s lunch as the inexperienced rookie.
– Murray and Harris shoot the lights out, avoiding the tremendous rim protection of the Lakers.
– Millsap is going to have to extend his playing time as the best option to match-up with Davis. It’s a big athletic and quickness disadvantage for Millsap, but his length and veteran acumen are going to have to be in play. I expect Millsap and some Plumlee will get most of the time matched up on Davis when he’s at the 4.
The Lakers are the better team, but the Nuggets are rolling with momentum and are coming off beating a more talented Clippers team. To start this series, I want to proceed as if these games are going to be close and build my core in that fashion.
There are a few really good roster builds to go in cash, but my initial lean is not to pay up for a stud and look towards the mid-tier Nuggets value to fill out the roster. Rondo is the crux of this slate and looks by far the best captain option to fit in more studs with the current news we have. A few pairings I do like to potentially pivot off a chalky Captain Rondo in tournaments:
Captain Murray: Davis-MPJ
No one is going to want to captain Murray with him being so close in price to the top 3 studs, but we’ve seen in this playoffs the upside he has when the shot is going. With this trio, you’re looking at massive real life points upside, but a dangerously low floor with how wide the range of outcomes are for MPJ and Murray on a game to game basis.
Captain Jokic: Harris-Davis
My initial lean is that Jokic ends up the least popular captain of the 3 studs, despite coming off the massive game 7 against the Clippers. People just love to jam the Laker duo in, so I’m looking to take advantage of that here by fading the massive LeBron ownership. You don’t have to get any more contrarian than that in showdown and can focus on building the best possible lineup you can; the LeBron hedge is more than enough.
Who to Captain?
Rajon Rondo ($5,400)
Draftkings refuses to bump up Rondo’s price tag after a stellar Rockets series and there’s no reason to expect his role to change moving forward. There’s some concern here with him currently being questionable with back spasms, so be sure to check the injury report before lock. If he’s in, he’s a must-play at this tag, allowing you to build whatever roster construction you want. For tournaments, he will be a popular captain, making a pivot off him will lead to contrarian construction.
Paul Millsap ($5,800)
If Rondo is active, Millsap in the captain is more for tournaments only, but at near the same price point, offers decent potential upside for the same low cost. Again, I think this is a series where Millsap is going to need to play bigger minutes as the best Nuggets option to match-up with Davis. It’s not a safe play by any means with his minutes volatility and production volatility, but there’s enough upside and minutes upside that I’d like to put him as one of my captain cores.
Anthony Davis ($10,800)
In a similar vein to Jokic, Davis gets forgotten a bit as most try to gravitate towards LeBron as much as they can. You’re getting a cheaper tag, that really comes into play on this slate and accessing the best upside on the slate with Davis.
This slate is a little less interesting than the Miami-Boston one since we’re playing the expensive studs with an incredibly (good) chalky Rondo as the highest owned captain on the slate if he plays. I think Millsap as a pivot in tournaments works extremely well and prioritizing Jokic and Davis to gain some ownership edge over LeBron are the main ways I want to differentiate on this slate. Please ask questions on my twitter @AsmusSports. I would love to work through some different showdown ideas with you so we can all get better. Best of luck!
September 17, 2020, 12:05 am
Boston-Miami Showdown Strategy: By: Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports) on Twitter
Who to captain?
While this slate is going to be lower-scoring overall with two excellent defensive teams, we have two teams where 5 or 6 guys can be the highest scoring player on the slate and we’re not paying the exorbitant price of a LeBron James or a James Harden. All of these guys have a chance to be the highest scoring player on the slate:
Jayson Tatum ($10,400)
Jimmy Butler ($9,200)
Bam Adebayo ($8,800)
Jaylen Brown ($8,600)
Kemba Walker ($8,200)
Goran Dragic ($7,800)
Marcus Smart ($7,600)
Tyler Herro ($7,000)
With this in mind, paying down at our captain spot so we can capture the most potential upside in our normal spots makes this most sense for tournaments. There are outs for any of the above players to be the highest scoring player on the slate. And with everyone so close together in price, cycling through these potential captain spots in quality lineups shouldn’t be too difficult. My top 4 captain slots for tournaments:
Kemba, Herro, Smart, Dragic
In cash games, my strong lean is towards Tyler Herro ($7,000) as your captain spot. He’s earned the trust of this Miami coaching staff and has become a key component to their closing lineup. He’s only played below 30 minutes twice in the entire playoffs and he’s showing tremendous upside with his passing and rebounding, culminating in a near triple double of 12 points, 9 assists, 11 rebounds in game 1 vs Boston. I’m betting on his role increasing as the series goes on and him continuing to eat into Duncan Robinson’s minutes if Robinson isn’t making shots early.
There’s not much down here, but you’re likely going to have to play at least one player from this tier. Wanamaker is coming off the massive 5 steal game in 24 minutes in game 1, which is obviously a big outlier and won’t be repeated. But he did play the entire OT when Theis fouled out and at $2800, if you can get 18+ minutes, it’s not the worst play to make.
Robert Williams is by far the better FPPM producer than Wanamaker, but his minutes floor is scary low. I’d look to Wanamaker for showdown cash, but think Williams as a tournament pivot makes sense if Theis gets in early foul trouble and they need Williams for 15+ minutes. Just know, you’re getting like a 5-7 minute floor here.
Duncan Robinson at $4800 is in play in tournaments as his playing time is fairly binary: if he’s hitting 3’s early, he’ll get extended playing time. If not, he’s going to lose his playing time to Herro. Work him in your tournament builds, but I would avoid any Herro in the captain and Robinson teams as they’ll be negatively correlated with each other.
Mike Apotria and I hit some quick thoughts on the podcast and we will have content about the game tomorrow as well. But for those of you wanting to play the 2-game, I’ll post some quick thoughts to help you break it down:
-Tatum is my favorite tournament spend over LeBron, Davis and Jokic. He’s the cheapest of the bunch and everyone is going to gravitate towards the later game studs.
– Herro, Millsap, Grant, Rondo and Harris are going to be your best cash game value plays. You don’t have to play all of them, but these are the guys you should be working in.
-This slate works reasonably well for both cash games and tournaments. A lot of solid value in the late game makes 2-stud cash game builds possible. And you’re going to get lower ownership on guys in the Miami-Boston game when they probably shouldn’t be.
– Ranking the studs for cash: LeBron-Jokic-Tatum-Davis
– Rankings the studs for tournaments: Tatum-Jokic-Davis-LeBron
– With Denver always having a real C on the floor and Jokic playing 38+ minutes a game, expect Javale and Dwight to fully be back in the rotation. Maybe not to their regular season levels, but you probably get 12-15 minutes out of each of them in this series.
– In turn, I expect far less Morris in this series, if he gets off the bench at all. He was a good value vs Houston, but he’s out of play at least in game 1 until I actually see him maintain his role over the 2 Centers.
That’s it! I’m hoping we can develop a really strong showdown strategy during the last few series in the playoffs and find a way to profit off weaker opponents. Please let me know if you have any questions on twitter @AsmusSports. Best of luck!
September 15, 2020, 10:14 am
By Steven Williams (Twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
(Note: DraftKings pricing)
The Boston Celtics are coming into this series after a 7-game rock-fight with the #2 seed Raptors. Miami on the other hand should be rested and ready to go. This is an interesting series with a lot of versatile players. I am excited to see how these matchups shake out.
Kemba Walker ($7,700 DK)
I fully respect Miami’s defense and believe that they can make things difficult for most opposing offenses. If they have a weakness it is their ability to deal with quick point guards that can shoot. Malcolm Brogden gave the Heat a bit of trouble in round 1. Kemba seems like the type of guard that can penetrate and bend the Miami defense with his ability to shoot above the break. I can’t think of anyone on the Miami roster that really guard Kemba. Look for Kemba to have a big series. Kemba’s production in terms of fantasy points per minute vs. The Heat is similar to Tatum and Brown and he comes in as the cheapest of Boston’s Big 3.
Bam Adebayo ($8,400 DK)
Bam destroyed the Celtics in their bubble match up. He got to the line for 18 free throw attempts. The Heat did not have Butler for that game so I don’t expect his usage to be that high. Boston has trouble with athletic centers, I can see Bam having a big series and I’d love to get in some lineups before his price increases.
Jimmy Butler ($8,500 DK)
Butler likes to come out swinging in playoff matchups. He torched both Indy and Milwaukee in game 1 of their series. Boston has a lot they can do defensively to slow Butler down,
Andre Iguodala ($3,700 DK)
Iggy certainly comes with a high level of risk. Miami has Iguodala for matchups like this. Boston is a wing heavy team and Iguodala should be utilized for his skills as a defensive specialist. He should be a difficult match up for Tatum. I am not sure some of the other Heat wings like Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro will be able to hold up defensively against these athletic Boston wings.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Well…I thought the Clippers were going to take down the Nuggets easily in 4 or 5 games. I was wrong. Jokic is playing out of his mind and the Clips have not been able to stop him. I’m looking forward to a Jokic-Kawhi game 7 duel.
Kawhi Leonard ($10,400 DK)
There is no one on this Denver team that can really stop Kawhi. Leonard will be motivated and playing high minutes. He needs to be the best player on the floor Tuesday night. I think he gets up for it.
Ivica Zubac ($4,800 DK)
Montrezl Harrel has not looked like himself as of late. Harrel was a -19 last game, he can’t rebound, and he is not helping the team defensively. Doc pushed Zubac’s minutes all the way up to 30 last game. Zubac was a team best +11. The Clippers are having issues defending when Zubac is off the floor. Zubac’s production has not quite kept up with his price tag, but I do not expect him to continue shooting so poorly. He is only 3-14 in his last two games.
Nikola Jokic ($10,000 DK)
Jokic has been crushing the Clippers. Is the Nuggets are going to win this series it will be on the back of a big game 7 from Jokic. He averages 1.4 FPPM against the Clippers and should play at least 40 minutes. Jokic is my favorite guy to pay up for in this slate.
Gary Harris ($4,600 DK)
Harris was incredible in Game 6. He gave the Nuggets a huge boost defensively. I am impressed with his ability to play 42 minutes in a playoff game seeing at that he had the virus this summer. The Nuggets will need Harris’ defense on George to have a shot in this game 7.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,300 DK)
I like Porter at this price point. He has been producing over a FPPM against the Clippers. The issue has been his minutes. Last game he was up to 27 minutes in the Nuggets win. Inexpensive value plays are tough to find on this slate and Porter has a ton of upside at $5300.
By Steven Williams (Twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
September 11, 2020, 1:00 am
As we’re getting later into these two series with two potential elimination games, we can be relatively confident that both teams are going to overextend their regulars and keep tight rotations. The Celtics and Raptors core guys are likely extremely tired coming off 50+ minute performances, but they don’t have much of a choice to keep playing as much as possible in this game.
My initial lean is to build around the 7.5-8.6k plays in the Toronto-Celtics game and just trust in the absolutely insane minutes floor these guys have if the game is close as it’s been the last few. I don’t think you’re sacrificing much safety or upside off of Kawhi or Jokic with the amount of minutes the studs in Boston-Toronto are playing.
Denver – Los Angeles Clippers
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200) I wanted to start with MPJ not as a recommendation, but as a potential cautionary tale to curb the upside people might think he has for tournaments. At $5,200 and 34 minutes in the last game, he’s still firmly in play for cash games and can get to a reasonable floor for that tag. But Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind on twitter) had a great tweet about how MPJ had 3 offensive touches in the 3rd quarter and ZERO in the 4th quarter, despite playing the last 17:28 of the game:
There’s another risk here as MPJ’s minutes are going to remain volatile while his defense is so poor, but it seems like Malone knows he needs his offensive output in order to compete. The hope here is the team makes the necessary adjustments in order to get him involved. He’ll be firmly in play in cash for me, but I’d be a bit weary in tournaments as he makes for a potentially great fade if the Nuggets don’t make that adjustment at extremely high ownership.
Gary Harris ($4,600) Harris fouled out of the last game and he’s reliant on defensive stats in order to hit an upside, but I don’t think we’ll find a better minutes floor on this slate for this cheap. He got up to 35 minutes in the previous competitive game and somewhere in that range is a good minutes expectation for him. We do want to build around guards in the next game, but I’m finding it difficult to find other avenues of value that can even be somewhat reliable at this tag.
Pat Beverly ($3,800) Once again, we don’t want to lock up all our guard positions and Beverly is still on his minutes limit. You know what you’re getting with this play: 22-23 minutes, potential defensive stats and somewhere around 15-18 DKP. The floor is scarily low here for him and I think I like other roster builds better that don’t include him. If you want to play Kawhi or Jokic though, he makes a ton of sense in those builds where we aren’t using guard slots on the more expensive plays.
Boston – Toronto
One strategy I’ve been working to employ throughout this playoffs on the 2-game slates in tournaments is game stacking and differentiating in that format. It doesn’t always work, (like the last slate for me where I stacked DEN-Clippers over the BOS-TOR game) but it’s been by far the best way I’ve found to make differentiating lineups while still accessing tremendous upside. On this slate for game 7, I want to be heavy on this game and really prioritize these plays the best I can.
Kyle Lowry ($8,600) Lowry is the first spend I want on every team I make today. He’s very likely in line for 43+ minutes again and he’s taking more of a command of the offense and playmaking responsibilities. His price is more expensive than we’d like for Lowry, but it’s still probably not enough for the minutes role he’s going to be in for this game. Play him in cash games, but the fade is certainly viable as the likely highest owned player on the slate.
Fred VanVleet ($7,900) FVV is going to be the second piece in every lineup. Boston’s defense is making it tough on him offensively, but if he can ever figure out his shot, he’s going to absolutely smash this tag as he’s still been the most aggressive offensive scorer on the Raptors. He hasn’t gotten the big price bump and in similar fashion to Lowry, it’d be difficult to see him play less than 43 minutes in a competitive game. He’s a cash game staple and I think it’d be viable to use him as a building block in tournaments over Lowry for potential differentiation.
Norman Powell ($4,400) Powell has reemerged in the past two games as a constant presence in the Toronto lineup, playing 38 minutes in the last 2OT game. Gasol was in foul trouble and Powell was playing well which contributed to that minutes limit, but I think Toronto is realizing they just can’t have Gasol on the floor in this series. Powell gives them another defensive wing to match up with Boston while Siakam is perfectly capable of handling Theis on defense. I wouldn’t depend on the 38 minutes again, but 28-30 is fairly likely, which makes him one of the top value plays on the slate. Also, SG/SF eligibility makes him desirable to fit in with the guards in this game we want to play.
Jaylen Brown ($8,000) Brown got a price hike , but it likely wasn’t enough coming off 51 minutes played in the past game. His USG rate was massive in the past game (32.5%) and only shot 11-30 from the field, leaving a lot of potential fantasy points on the table. The most important part of Brown though is his SG/SF eligibility, letting us play him with FVV and Lowry rather easily and keeping a guard slot open if we need it for value.
Jayson Tatum ($9,500) Tatum just isn’t garnering ownership in any format and brings some of the best upside on the slate. If spending up, I prefer Tatum over Kawhi and Jokic. Like the rest of the core in the game, he’s just not going to leave the floor and is going to command incredibly high usage. It’s perfectly viable in cash to build around Tatum or Brown along with FVV and Lowry as your building block pieces. I’m currently leading Tatum over Brown, but it’s extremely close.
That’s it! These slates get real tricky as we head into the later portion of the series and people are on to the correct plays. My best advice for trying to get different in tournaments (and even cash games) is to really prioritize the BOS-TOR game and fade ownership from DEN-LAC. Best of luck and please reach out to me on twitter @AsmusSports if you have any questions.
September 9, 2020, 11:53 pm
Showdown Slate Strategy: By Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports)
We’ve finally arrived at the showdown slates for the NBA playoffs and gaining some edge back in the process. Showdown as a game has still not been solved in any sport, leaving players to make a multitude of mistakes that you wouldn’t normally see on a regular slate of games.
Overrating the Captain Spot
Players generally feel they have to jam in the best player in the 1.5x captain spot and build their lineup from there. For the most part though, there are far more effective ways to build and maximize your total lineup output when you find a quality value play to put at captain that lets you massively upgrade your team. Let’s take this upcoming Houston and LAL showdown slate for example:
LeBron James Captain price: $19,200
Rajon Rondo Normal price: $5,200
This leaves $6,400 left per spot which makes it near impossible to use more than one of Westbrook, Harden or Davis into your lineup. You’re left sifting through the “Value” plays like Caruso, Jeff Green, Markieff Morris to fill in 3 of your 6 spots, while only having 2 of the 4 major upside plays on the slate. Your lineup is basically solely tied to LeBron being the top scorer and severely outproducing his projection to find a ceiling with that roster construction.
Rajon Rondo Captain Price: $7,800
LeBron James Normal Price: $12,800
Remaining per slot: $7,350
This leaves significantly more flexibility as you’re able to add a 3rd star to your roster if you wish, or go more balanced with two stars and the high minutes players on Houston (Covington, Gordon, Tucker). You’re sacrificing the possible monster game from LeBron, but you’re giving yourself a much better floor/ceiling outcome.
How to be contrarian:
One key strategy for showdowns to employ is not making my team overtly different and throwing names like J.R Smith or Dion Waiters because they’ll be low owned. It’s as easy as thinking LeBron is going to be the highest owned player on the slate, so I’m going to run the same exact lineup with James Harden in his place and gaining a 15-20% ownership edge. Or going into this slate that Rondo is likely going to be one of the most popular captains, so running Jeff Green in that spot gives me a shot at similar upside at far less captain ownership. Be thoughtful with how you’re building tournament teams and don’t feel like you have to drastically change your optimal lineup in order to build a winning team.
James Harden – $18,600
Anthony Davis – $17,400
Russell Westbrook – $15,000
Robert Covington – $11,100
Rajon Rondo – $7,800
Jeff Green – $6,900
Rajon Rondo – $5,200
Jeff Green – $4,600
Alex Caruso – $4,000
Markieff Morris – $3,200
That’s it! Let me know on twitter @AsmusSports if you like the format of this showdown article so I know for next week if I should continue to format this way. Be sure to try some tournaments on this showdown as I think there’s a real edge left in this game format. Best of luck!
September 9, 2020, 1:45 am
By Santino Caccone (twitter: @SantinoCaccone)
(Note: DraftKings Pricing) Continue to watch the news, as especially in that opening game, the availability of Serge Ibaka (ankle/questionable) changes things quite a bit.
Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics
Kyle Lowry ($8,200)
Both Lowry and Fred VanVleet $7,500 are in play in this one in good spots. Lowry gets the edge for me but if you don’t have the extra money, FVV isn’t a bad fallback option. Lowry has played well this series and is averaging over 50 DraftKings points in the three games that the Celtics didn’t run away with. With their backs against the wall I expect this game to be a tight one, and Lowry to play at least 40 minutes as the Raptors try to claw to a game 7.
Marc Gasol ($4,100)
Serge Ibaka (ankle) is listed as questionable for this one, and if he can’t suit up Gasol should see closer to 30 minutes in a win-or-go-home game 6. The younger and more athletic Chris Boucher $3,000 would find himself on the DFS map in this one as well with his minimum price tag, but it should be the veteran who the team relies on more, at least in the first half. This price tag is very reasonable on a light slate for C options.
Tentatively Fading Pascal Siakam ($7,800)
Under normal circumstances I’d be fully fading Siakam as he just hasn’t shown me enough in the bubble to trust him. And while I’m still not in on him and going to mostly fade him, I’m curious to hear any blurbs or notes about lineup switches pregame before I fully decide. As we stand at the moment, Serge Ibaka is questionable to play in this one and him missing the game changes a lot of the dynamics on both sides. Common knowledge tells us that Marc Gasol and Chris Boucher will get a bump, but there is still the possibility that they throw a bunch of those minutes to Norman Powell and bump OG Anunoby and Siakam down to PF and C. I personally think that’d be better for them if Ibaka is out. If I get a hint that Nick Nurse is leaning towards going smaller against this Celtics team, Siakam becomes more appealing to me and I’ll have a few shares of him. If Ibaka is ready to go or I don’t get that hint, then I’ll let someone else roster Siakam.
Jayson Tatum ($9,300)
An absent Serge Ibaka (questionable) would open up extra minutes for Marc Gasol, Chris Boucher, or Norman Powell who aren’t the rim protectors that Ibaka is. This would open up a safer floor for Tatum who can take advantage at the rim and the free throw line, and make him in play for me as he is sure to have lower ownership than the other two big guys. A healthy Ibaka would change things a bit, and I’d rather spend a few extra hundred to get Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic.
Jaylen Brown ($7,600)
This is a solid price tag for Brown, and in such a slugfest of a matchup/series, I’m more inclined to take the savings in Brown than pay up for a Tatum in most scenarios. Brown is averaging 36.8 DraftKings points in nine games against the Raptors, which is higher than his average on the season.
Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets
Kawhi Leonard ($10,300)
Klaw is the best player on this docket both in real life and in fantasy, and while the price tag has been inflated to over 10K in this series with just two games per day, it’s still a good price for a guy with blowup potential. He started to hit shots to close out game 3, but even still he’s shooting a combined 13-of-36 from the field and 1-of-9 from deep in the past two games and he’s still averaging 49.25 DraftKings points during that stretch. The versatile superstar has a floor that is on the second level of the house and if his shot is falling he could break open the slate.
Patrick Beverley ($3,600)
This is such a cheap price that a healthy looking Beverley should walk into value on. I’m not particularly high on P-Bev as a basketball player, I think he is simply average, but people see him running around and think he’s better because of that. With that said, this is a no-harm no-foul price tag and he should see 20-25 minutes in this one as it will be his fifth game back from injury and he looks to be good to go. In the game with more offense and a higher over-under, his price tag will help me get more firepower elsewhere in the lineup.
Nikola Jokic ($9,900)
I promise I didn’t plan on putting the top guys on each team as one of my plays, but that’s just how it worked out in this one. Take out the clubbing game 1 where the Nuggets were coming off of a grueling seven game series where they battled back from a 3-1 deficit, and Jokic is averaging 60 DraftKings points per game over the last two. It’s business as usual for the big man as the Clippers have no answer for him with Ivaca Zubac looking to slow and Montrezl Harrell struggling to even find the floor with his poor play. I like Leonard on a point per dollar basis better, but if you don’t like any of the C alternatives, then play Jokic.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200)
I’m in the camp that they need MPJ’s offense in this series, and his minutes should creep closer to the 30-minute mark in this one. That makes this price tag a no-brainer as he’ll definitely see the usage to outplay this. Porter Jr. comes with some volatility as he could once again fall short of 24 minutes and lay off the glass, but the leap of faith knowing the upside he possesses, and that the Clippers have so many guys that they can throw at Jamal Murray, makes Porter a guy that I will be having a heavy dose of.
Fading Jamal Murray ($8,600)
It’s because of the last sentence from above, that I am going to let someone else have shares of Jamal Murray at this price tag. He has the ability to go off at a moments notice, as we saw in the first round, but the Clippers are another beast for the young upstart guard. The Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard as primary defenders of Murray, and even Patrick Beverley to annoy Murray for stints. It’s a lot of different looks from all-defense caliber players to make me comfortable in shying away from him. And while Porter could theoretically see the same first two guys, Murray’s impressive first round showed that the Nuggets need him to play at their best, and that’s where the Clippers are focusing their attention.
By Santino Caccone (twitter: @SantinoCaccone)
September 8, 2020, 12:21 am
By Steven Williams (Twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat
(Note: DraftKings pricing)
Khris Middleton ($8,600 DK)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as questionable for Game 5. Even if Giannis plays, I have a hard time believing that he will be himself. Reports indicate he cannot jump off his foot. Middleton was awesome in game 4 without Giannis. I am surprised to see Middleton’s price only increased by $500 on DK. With or without a healthy Giannis I can see the Bucks featuring Middleton more. Coach Bud pushed Middleton up to 48 minutes in the Bucks overtime win in game 4. Middleton should be funneled minutes and usage; he is one of my favorite plays on the slate at $8,600
Donte DiVincenzo ($3,500 DK)
DiVincenzo’s minutes have been creeping up over the past 2 games. He played 27 minutes in the Buck’s game 4 victory on Sunday. DiVincenzo is a guy that averaged roughly 1 FPPM during the regular season. If he gets the minutes, I expect him to easily crush at $3,500.
The Heat have a few guys that showed up on the injury report for Game 5, Kelly O’lynk, Jae Crowder, and Tyler Herro are all listed as questionable. We might find that some late value opens up for Miami.
Bam Adebayo ($8,700 DK)
Bam has been awesome this series against the Bucks, he has been averaging 45 DK per game. His minutes pushed all the way up to 44 last game. He can get it done in a lot of ways and has a relatively safe cash floor. He has been a more consistent fantasy producer this series than his teammate Jimmy Butler ($8,500).
Duncan Robinson ($4,700 DK)
Robinson has proven that he can somewhat hold up defensively in playoffs. Spoelstra had enough confidence in Robinson to play him 39 minutes in game 4. He really opens up the offense for the Heat with his deadly 3-point shooting. Robinson comes with a level of risk because his value is almost entirely reliant on his ability to hit shots.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
LeBron James ($11,200 DK)
LeBron is the engine of this Lakers offense, he sets the tone for everything they do. James does not want to go down 2-1 to this Rockets team and I expect him to come out ready to play. It looked like he figured out this Rockets defense in game 2. Anthony Davis is a good play at $10,600, but I like LeBron’s upside more. If I can’t fit LeBron due to price, I may pivot to Davis for some line ups.
Rajon Rondo ($3,900 DK)
Rondo was a +28 in game 2 against the Rockets in 29 minutes. I do not know which one of those of those things is more surprising. Rondo has been crushing value since returning to the team. He is a steal at $3,900.
Markieff Morris ($3,500 DK)
Morris saw his minutes increase significantly last game. While I do not expect him to shoot 4-5 from 3 again, I do think he is a good match up for this small Rockets team. With Javale Mcgee questionable I think Morris should see another decent run.
James Harden ($11,000 DK)
Harden has been playing well against the Lakers, he has been efficient, and the Lakers are having trouble containing him. The Rockets need Harden to be aggressive to have a chance in this series. He was a +8 in Game 2 and they lost by 8. His back-court mate Russell Westbrook has been horrible since returning from injury, The Rockets would be wise to shift some more usage Harden’s way.
Robert Covington ($6,500 DK)
Covington is always capable of having a big game. We know he’s going to play 40 minutes or close to it. The Rockets really struggled in the Jeff Green minutes (-26). Look for Covington and P.J Tucker to get all of the minutes they can handle.
By Steven Williams (Twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
September 7, 2020, 12:16 pm
By Brenton Eckersley (twitter: @terrain72)
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
DFS Picks (Note: DraftKings pricing)
Kemba Walker ($8,000 DK)
Kemba’s fantasy output has been a little hit or miss in the last couple and is seemingly tied to his 3-point percentage at the moment. He’s actually exceeded this price tag in 4 of the last 6 playoff games but of course, two of those were against Philadelphia… not the Raptors who guard the arc really well. In all honesty, at the $8000 salary I’d usually be looking on the other side of the ball, but the argument here is ownership. It’s highly possible that Walker is a surprise lower-owned PG on this slate vs the two Raptor guards, which keeps him in play for me.
Jaylen Brown ($7,500 DK)
I’ll think I’ll just leave Jaylen alone at that price for the most part. For the moment, anyway. It’s a decent price for him so you could definitely drop him into a few lineups but he’s only beaten that price in DK points three times in his last 7 outings. Even though he’s SG/SF eligible I think that there are better options for the dollars at both spots coming up later.
Jayson Tatum ($9,300 DK)
$9300 is a little high for what Tatum has been returning on most nights so while I’m not going to be playing high ownership of him in my lineups, I’m still willing to have more shares in him than I am in Jaylen Brown. The real problem is that at just above that salary we can get to some absolute studs in better matchups on this slate. We all know he’s capable of a 55-60 DK point game at any time but he hasn’t been hitting his 3 ball in this series – going 2/5; 1/4 and 1/6 in three of the last 4 Raptor matchups. That’s due to the Raptors guarding the arc really well but… I’m still willing to own Tatum a little tonight. Maybe as a Kawhi pivot, who is likely going to be higher owned. I’m just not 100% sold on paying $9300 for Jason vs this Raptors perimeter defense.
Daniel Theis ($5,400 DK)
If you’re not paying up for Jokic at centre, then Thiess is a nice, safe ‘floor’ type of play. In this series he’s averaging right on 27 DK points vs the Raptors but that is also due to a big outing in Game 1 of 38.75. The minutes, FG attempts and rebounds are there to keep him close to this value, but he really hasn’t shown significant upside, so it’s a Cash play for Theiss for me more than anything… or just as a ‘safe’ kind of guy to help you spend up elsewhere. He’s not going to burn you too badly with a fairly solid floor around this value and he does have PF eligibility which helps. If you’re looking for some upside, you’re probably better off on the other side of the ball.
Robert Williams ($3,800 DK)
The only guy outside the Boston starting 5 that I’d look at – and even then, the $3800 tag is slightly high. But, in these two game slates we’ve gotta find value somewhere. He produces pretty well in PPM and drags down a high clip of boards in the minutes he does get (which are around 14-18 mins a night at the moment). Should Thiess get into foul trouble, you can expect a lot more minutes and production from The Timelord. Definitely not the worst low salary play on the board and if he can get a couple of extra defensive stats in there tonight, he’s probably worth some low percentage shares.
Kyle Lowry ($8,200 DK)
A price bump of $400 up to $8200 for Lowry, but I’m definitely still willing to pay it. Lowry just does everything on the court and averages 43 DK pts vs Boston usually anyway. In this series he’s dished out 8,7,8 & 7 assists; he’s pulled down 6, 5, 6 & 11 rebounds, and because he’s a little pest – he gets those super important defensive stats as well. Add to that the fact that he got up a whopping 23 shot attempts in Game 3! In the last two vs Boston we’ve seen what he can really do when he’s in playoff mode and the $8200 price is really more around his floor at the moment. He’s easily the PG play on this slate for me. Lowry will probably be fairly high owned but rightly so and apart from maybe a hot shooting night from Jamal Murray, I think Lowry has the best upside of the guys under the $9k salary on this card.
Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DK)
I love the way Freddy plays and while I don’t mind the salary; ultimately, I’m paying the extra $400 in most of my lineups for Kyle Lowry. VanVleet has a really safe floor but if you look at it right now, Lowry’s floor seems to be Freddy’s ceiling at the moment. If you want to mix things up, here’s just another guy in this matchup that you can still definitely feel safe in playing. Thanks to Nick Nurse knowing how to actually run a playoff rotation, the minutes are constantly in the 40s for VanVleet & Kyle so he’s just unlikely to let you down… and if he happens to have a hot shooting night he could blow right through the $7800 and be a differential pivot away from Lowry.
O.G. Anunoby ($5,700 DK)
In Game 1 of this Boston series, OG was priced $4700. Now he’s a full $1000 above that and starting to get up there. Granted, he’s smashed through that value twice in the series with 32.25 and 38.5 DK points in Games 2 & 3, but we have to keep in mind that Game 1 was only 24.75 from Anunoby and Game 4 was only 22.75. He’s another fairly safe option and again, we need value from some of the ancillary guys on the card. OG is not going to burn you, but he’s probably not going to win you a line up either. Unfortunately, we don’t get extra DFS points for crazy, out-of-nowhere game winners 🙂 If you’re looking for a guy to have a flyer at this kind of salary then you could look at a couple of guys in the other game on the card. If you want to play safe money, then OG is your guy.
Pascal Siakam ($8,100 DK)
At the higher priced PF options on this slate it’s a pretty simple equation – Jason Tatum at $9300 or Pascal Siakam at $8100. Pascal is definitely starting to hit his straps against the Celtics despite some poor shooting, so this might all just come down to how your builds are looking at other spots. If you want to pay up for, say, Nikola Jokic or Kawhi Leonard then you’re going to have to spend down elsewhere and that might mean not playing Tatum. You save $1200 by playing Pascal and if you grab some value plays around the board then you might even be able to grab three higher priced players for your lineup. When the other PF options tonight drop away to OG Anunoby, Jerami Grant and Morris, I’m probably going to play a fair amount of Siakam – and he should be lower owned than Tatum here as well. The upside is probably with Tatum but if you want to save the dollars, it’s Pascal.
Serge Ibaka ($5,900 DK)
Serge holds his salary at $5900 tonight and that’s still a good price for him in this series. While Boston are busy guarding Lowry, FVV and Siakam, Ibaka is finding himself open at the three-point line all night and is firing nicely. He had an off shooting night in Game 3 against the Celtics but otherwise he’s been around that price in each of the other three. There’s been a slight reduction in minutes in the last couple but it still feels like a pretty safe play. We have to find value and right now, Serge is a pretty rock solid option.
LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets
Kawhi Leonard ($10,300 DK)
It’s crazy to think that in Game 2 of this series, Kawhi can go 4/17 from the field and still get to 45 DK pts. Board man gets paid.
So… in Game 1 vs the Nuggets, he goes 12/16 from the floor but his rebounds and assists are way down at 2 & 3. In Game 2 he goes 4/17 from the floor and his boards and assists are at 10 & 8. I think we get the Kawhi game here where he bounces back and puts the package together. He can get to 51 DK points without even breaking a sweat and he will NOT like the shooting performance that he put out there in Game 2. I’m looking for a huge response from a focused Fun Guy in this one. If he can get to his usual clip of boards and assists plus those elite defensive stats then anything is possible. Nikola Jokic is $600 cheaper but is also questionable at this point. I think you have to pay up for the highest priced players on the card tonight if you want to stay competitive with the field so I’ll be building lineups around #1 – Kawhi and #2 – Jokic.
Paul George ($8,300 DK)
PG13 averages 40 DK points against the Nuggets and that places him at right around value. The shooting is around 40% from the floor now and he’s actually showing something here as a decent pivot away and down from Jason Tatum at the SF spot. If you are looking to play George, it might be better to actually take him at SG (on DraftKings) as there are probably more options to work around him in that SF spot. The only concern I have with the $8300 price tag is that I expect Kawhi to be grinding in this one on the bounce back – which might take some usage away – but otherwise it’s a fine price for George and he should still get to, or near, that salary.
Marcus Morris ($5,100 DK)
Here’s Morris in his last four outings – 29 DK points, 12 DK points, 33 DK points, 14 DK points. If you play that law then Morris must be in for a huge night lol. In all seriousness though, the salary drop to $5100 actually puts him in play. He’s averaging 27.7 against the Nugs and got up 9 & 10 shot attempts in Games 1 & 2 of this series. I still think I’d rather take a look at Michael Porter Jr on the other side of the ball at $100 less, and with more upside. Close call.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,100 DK)
Harrell can always explode and is priced right up against his average vs Denver in the past 4 games, which is close to 32 DK points. We just haven’t really seen that sign of an explosion yet, so I’m a little hesitant. He’s definitely in play against the Nuggets bench if you’re looking for that GPP tournament upside. I just keep seeing a couple of other lower salaries (including Robert Williams) and think they might be safer options if you’re looking at a low cost centre that allows a higher spend elsewhere. Happy to throw some Montrezl into some lineups for that potential break out upside game though.
JaMychal Green ($3,600 DK)
Looking for value here, and Green has to be a shot as a GPP pivot play, even at a slight price bump of $300, to $3600. If he’s going to play between 21 and 26 mins which we’ve seen in Games 1 & 2 in this Denver series, then he’s definitely worth some of our time. He’s actually put up more shot attempts than Patrick Beverley in those two outings and even though it’s low(ish) attempts, when he’s hitting more than 50% from the floor and dragging down 5,7 & 11 rebounds in his last three – then he’s a great value play at $3600 for me. Might be a low owned value option as he’s also a name that the casual fantasy player might skim past.
Jamal Murray ($8,900 DK)
Decent price for Murray given the way he’s playing in these playoffs and we’re seeing the next level that Jamal can go to. However, that was the Jazz, this is the Clippers. His 15 shot attempts in Game 1 vs the Clippers (26.75 DK points) rocketed to 21 shot attempts in Game 2 (45.75 DK points) which is definitely worth mentioning. I just think I’ll be looking at the Raptors and Celtics guards at slightly below this salary rather than Jamal against the Clippers (where – by the way – he only averages a low 28 DK points in his last 5). I’m going elsewhere and if he beats me then he beats me.
NOTE: Nikola Jokic is Questionable
So, to rephrase – unless Jokic sits… I’m looking elsewhere. If the Joker isn’t suiting up then I’m looking at the obvious increase in usage to get Jamal Murray where we need him to be. He’ll have to put the Nuggets on his back and carry them as far as he possibly can.
Jerami Grant ($5,200 DK)
If Jerami Grant is going to play 40 minutes against ANYONE I’ll take him at that salary. His minutes are up on two fronts. One, because of Michael Porter Jr‘s suspect defense, and two – because he’s out there guarding Kawhi Leonard. In Game 2, Grant had a terrible shooting night with 1-9 from the field and 0-5 from behind the line but still got to 28 DK points somehow. Before that in Game 1, he went 4-8 (and 3-6 from three) in 26 minutes. So, let’s do the math… if he can get his FG% to closer to that usual 30-40% and play 40 mins while he’s guarding Kawhi – then this is a fantastic lower salary play.
Paul Millsap ($4,700 DK)
I wouldn’t play both Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap in the same lineup, but as long as this game stays close, Millsap is a decent play at $4700. He had 11 shot attempts in Game 2 vs the Clippers and got to 32 minutes, another guy benefitting while MPJ’s minutes are being kept low. I’m not going all in to get Paul in my lineups but he’s definitely in play – especially as a Cash game option or to help build your GPP lineups with a few studs.
Nikola Jokic ($9,700 DK)
Oh man, which Nikola Jokic will we get vs the Clippers this time? The 22.75 DK points Jokic from Game 1 in this series; or the 61 DK points Jokic from Game 2?
We have to keep in mind the score line in Game 1 and that Jokic only played 30 minutes. Still, there was a noticeable difference in focus and aggression between those two games from the Joker. I’m leaning towards the fatigue and “letdown” factors contributing to that score in Game 1, where the Nuggets were coming off a strenuous 7 games vs the Jazz – and I’m betting that we see Nikola still in the zone for us in this one. If that’s the case, then 47 DK points is a literal walk in the park for Jokic and I’m happy to build 40-50% of my lineups around him and then pivot to Kawhi Leonard in most of the others. In the previous four games (before Game 1 in this series), he beat this kind of salary easily and some of that was against a defensively talented Rudy Gobert. The Clippers do not have Gobert… and have been giving up big fantasy points to centers all season long. Jokic should blow through this salary blindfolded.
September 4, 2020, 1:20 pm
By: Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports)
This Friday slate gets far more complicated than what we had yesterday with very little quality cheap value and four expensive studs where it will be more than likely we’re playing one of these studs in cash games. Giannis ($11,500), Harden ($11,200), LeBron ($11,000), Davis ($10,600) all have a case to be an anchor for our lineups and hitting on the right expensive spend is going to decide whether we cash or not. Let’s go through them:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
Something has to give with Budenholzer and him holding back Giannis and Middleton into the mid-30’s in minutes. There was some foul trouble this game, but his refusal to extend this guys into the 40’s to avoid a 0-2 hole was absolutely mind-boggling to watch. If there was ever a time for Giannis to finally get into the 40 minute range, it’ll be in this game to avoid the 0-3 hole. He’s been predictably great so far in the playoffs through 7 games:
33 MPG–28.6 PPG–14.9RPG–6.0 APG–0.6SPG–0.7BPG–33.9% USG–63.1% TS
There’s more upside here, amazingly, as he hasn’t had a major blocks or steals game yet in the playoffs. It’s a playing time issue at this point and one we have to hope Budenholzer gets over and just lets him run. If he gets 38+ minutes, he’s the best spend on the slate by a decent margin. If he stays in this 33-35 range, we have to look elsewhere.
James Harden ($11,200)
Harden was fairly disappointing in the OKC series, only accessing the upside we’re used to with him in 1 of the 7 games. He wasn’t playing close to the minutes we thought either, only eclipsing 40 minutes once (the game he scored 74 DKP). My best guess is D’Antoni was trying not to repeat the same mistake he’s made in the past and running Harden into the ground and then he’s gassed in later series. Here’s his production so far in the playoffs:
36.4 MPG–29.7 PPG–6.3RPG–8.0APG–1.6SPG–0.7BPG–61.7% TS–32.6% USG–54.79 DKFP
It’s certainly not what we’re used to seeing, even with Westbrook on the court (38.2% USG, 1.72 FPPM, 1323 minutes) leading me to being in a similar spot with Harden as I am Giannis. Harden has an obvious unrealized upside if he starts playing 40+ minutes, which is likely to happen in this series with the Lakers. I’d rather play Giannis in cash games, but I want to keep firing on Harden in tournaments, especially since he’ll likely be the lowest owned of the three studs.
LeBron James PG/SF ($11,000)
LeBron was superb in the series against Portland and is coming into this new series fresh with 5 days off between games. He actively looked to increase his playmaking role and there were very few possessions when he was on the floor where the offense did not go through him first. With PG/SF eligibility, he gives us excellent positional flexibility,which will be important on a slate where the pricing is incredibly tight. He also comes at a discount off Giannis and Harden. His numbers in the first 5 playoff games:
32.8 MPG–27.4 PPG–10.2 RPG-10.2 APG–1.2 SPG–0.4 BPG–30.7% USG–70.8% TS–59.85 DKFP
LeBron is my initial lean to build around in cash games for this slate. The Lakers gets the best defensive match-up against the Rockets along with an excellent pace increase. The floor is tough to pass up with so much of the team’s offensive control running through LeBron it’s hard to see him fail in this spot in a competitive game.
Anthony Davis ($10,600)
Davis has been a tough play for me in the playoffs as he’s always so closely priced to LeBron and the playmaking element that Bron gives just creates a much more secure floor for cash games. I think there was one slate I played Davis over LeBron because the little bit of extra money mattered, but that’s generally the only reason I would consider him as a better cash building block.
The upside is immense and he should absolutely be a staple in your tournament builds. He’s cheaper than the other 3 studs by a decent margin and he gets a full playoff series where everyone guarding him is at least 4 inches shorter than he is.
32.6 MPG–29.8 PPG–9.4 RPG–4.2 APG–1.4 SPG–1.6BPG–30.2% USG–65.6% TS–54.85 DKFP
For cash games I’d rank the studs in this order, barring any news opening up:
I’m perfectly fine playing Giannis if you think Budenholzer finally wakes up and runs him 38+ minutes. If he doesn’t make that adjustment, I’d lean LeBron.
Khris Middleton ($8,200)
In a similar fashion to Giannis. Budenholzer for some reason decided to keep Middleton at 33 minutes, despite being a +18 in +/- for the game. Doesn’t make sense, but hey I suppose I’m not an NBA coach in the playoffs. I want to be invested here in Middleton if he can get bumped to a proper 38+ minutes as he’s gotten out of his Magic series playoff slump the past 2 games:
35.1 MPG–25.5 PPG–6.0 RPG–6.5APG–1.0 SPG–31.6% USG–57.6% TS–44 DKFP
Middleton is my lean over Butler or Bam as a second spend in cash game builds. There’s just too much upside here if Budenholzer finally wakes up. He’s come with significantly less ownership than Butler or Bam in all formats, making him an excellent tournament play as well.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,700)
It’s the recurring theme of this article as Bledsoe is one of the better values on the slate at $5,700. That’s how dire this slate is for value and this is as good a time as any to tell you to be careful with your bankroll on this slate. When pricing is this tight, there are very few viable roster constructions in cash games especially, leading to mostly 1v1 and 2v2 for cash.
Bledsoe actually got up to 31 minutes in the last game, which is on the higher end for him. I think I want to approach this slate where Bud is going to extend his best players and not fall into a 0-3 hole. I’m not expecting 38+ minutes like I am for Middleton and Giannis, but the 33-34 range is possible which is more than enough for me to get him in lineups.
Russell Westbrook ($8,600)
This might not be a fun roster for some of you, but if we get anywhere close to normal workload Russ, this is a price-tag we have to lock in for him. He got up to 34 minutes in the last game, despite still being on his minutes limit. If he gets up to 36-37, he’s likely the best value on the slate and it’s probably not all that close. It’s a tough defensive match-up against the Lakers and he hasn’t been consistent at all in his 3 playoff bubble games, but you have to attack the upside of Russ being this cheap.
Alex Caruso ($3,600)
He was heavily carried by 4 steals and 1 block in the last game against Portland for only 22.25 DKP. This is the state of the slate though as Caruso seemingly locked himself into a consistent minutes role (29, 17, 27, 21, 25) in the 5 playoff bubble games and the Lakers have been really good when he’s on the floor. Even with Rondo coming back, I anticipate he’s going to eat into the other guards minutes while Caruso will maintain his role. It’s not pretty, but he’s my favorite of the under $4k plays that will have to be in lineups on this slate.
Markieff Morris ($3,400)
Again, it’s not pretty, but we have to play these guys on this slate if we want to play any of the studs at all. I think there’s a case to be made that Morris could see a bit of extended run while McGee and Howard get played off the floor by the small-ball Rockets. Howard and McGee had centers to match up with against Portland and nothing close to that exists on the Rockets. He’s already carved out a decent minutes role so far (19, 19, 15, 18, 16) with Howard and McGee getting their normal run.
It’s very important to keep in mind if playing this slate that you’ll have to be comfortable playing guys like Wes Matthews, Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris in order to make rosters work. Be cautious with your bankroll and I would focus strongly on a few rosters, rather than over-extending with a bunch of lineups. Please reach out to me on twitter @AsmusSports if you have any questions about the slate. Best of luck!
September 3, 2020, 12:00 am
DFS Delivery: Wednesday September 3rd, 2020
By: Aaron Asmus (@AsmusSports)
This 2-game slate with one of the games being the start to a new series is a much better slate than we had yesterday with actual viable cheap and mid-tier plays to make different constructions work. Hopefully, you were able to profit playing Jokic over Murray last slate as I don’t think we’ll get the same ownership discrepancy (Murray was twice as highly owned as Jokic in cash games) with them being similar in price again. I want my expensive spends to be focused on Denver/Clippers which will have a significantly higher total and a better overall game environment for fantasy scoring.
That said, I don’t think there’s necessarily a “wrong” way to build on these short-2 game slates and we’re embracing huge amounts of variance just by playing. Especially in tournaments, be very picky who you X out of your player pool and leave all possible avenues open for different roster builds.
This has been predictably a tough series to peg down because of how good defensively both of these teams are leading to very erratic scoring numbers (FVV 8-22, 3-12 from 3, Lowry 0-7 from 3, Kemba 6-18, 1-8 from 3 in game 2). The minutes distribution has made things easier though as both teams are playing strict 7-8 man rotations only extending that number if foul trouble happens. I think we’ll see a lot of people gravitate towards Kawhi and Jokic as building blocks for lineups and relying on the good value in this game to create their lineups. That leaves a good opportunity in tournaments to start teams with Jason Tatum or even cheaper with the upper 7k guards like Lowry, FVV and Walker as building blocks and relying heavily on the value in the Denver/LAC game. It’s not all too viable to extend into the value for this game outside of Theis/Anunoby/Williams, outside of large-field GPP fliers.
Daniel Theis PF/C ($5,200) Theis gaining PF eligibility likely makes him the most popular play on the slate. It’s pretty clear Boston intends to ride Theis in this series with Williams backing him up in a 15-18 minute role. F is a weak position on DK as it is and Theis doesn’t block you from playing Jokic or Zubac in the next game. On the season, he’s an excellent FPPM producer (0.96 FPPM with Hayward and Kanter off the floor) making him one of the better values on the slate. Normally we’d like to find cheaper options for value, but on these playoff slates, $5,200 for 28+ locked in minutes is too good to pass up. He’s a lock in your cash games and a very difficult tournament fade, even at high ownership.
OG Anunoby SF/PF ($5,100) Anunoby is almost the exact same play as Theis; he wouldn’t be cheap under normal slate conditions but with these condensed rotations and tight pricing, paying $5,100 for 35+ minutes is a no-brainer in cash games. Him going 4-6 from 3 carried his 32.25 DK performance in the past game, but he also didn’t have any blocks or steals, which is normally where his upside comes from. Positional scarcity also matters as most of the top-tier and super cheap value plays are at the guard position. Being under the field in tournaments on OG makes a lot of sense, due to his low floor and there being some options on Denver to pivot too in this range. He’ll be a staple for my cash teams though.
Jayson Tatum SF/PF ($9,200) Tatum is my favorite tournament play of the day by a large margin. He was largely forgotten on the last slate and I think that could very likely happen again, despite coming off the 55 DKP performance. With Kawhi being a priority spend for $1,000 more, Jokic and Murray taking ownership at the same price and Paul George being $1,000 cheaper, Tatum gets stuck in this no-man’s-land pricing where he’s difficult to put into optimal builds. Starting with Tatum will give unique builds and a chance to be different from the majority of roster builds.
Denver/Los Angeles Clippers
I’m finding most of my preferred plays are coming from this game. Leonard and Jokic will likely be the two highest projected players on the slate and are both very affordable at $10.3K and $9.5k respectively. It starts to get a little thin with the value plays if you try to play both, but it’s still viable with pieces like Shamet, Craig and Gary Harris all of whom will be in play in any format.
Denver is going to need Gary Harris to get up to speed quickly to help defend George and Kawhi on the wing. I think Craig, Grant and Harris are going to eat virtually every minute of the 2 and 3 spot to try and keep up with them. MPJ showed us last series that he just isn’t ready to play defense at a playoff level and the match-up gets significantly worse for him with George and Kawhi being the primary wings.
Nikola Jokic ($9,500) I’m not entirely sure if the market is going to correct itself when it comes to choosing between Murray and Jokic at nearly the same price, but it’s just not a contest for me; Jokic is the play. The rates got discombobulated in the Utah series, but I think a lot of that had to do with Murray’s completely unsustainable shooting performance and the Nuggets just letting that ride. There’s just so much more upside once the offense starts getting run through him again and his assist rate rises back to its regular season levels. He’s not a must play in cash games, since C is such a strong position, but I would certainly keep him in your pool while being vastly overweight him in tournaments.
Ivica Zubac ($4,800) The Clipper soon found out that they can’t really play Harrell his normal minutes at this point and Zubac has really thrived in his role as a defensive anchor, getting up to 33 minutes in the game 6 against the Mavericks. He’s just going to have to play all the minutes he can handle to match-up with Jokic and Harrell not being up to speed with his conditioning or play. Zubac is going to be an anchor in cash and I’d love to be overweight him in tournaments as well. Theis-Jokic-Zubac is an incredible floor for a cash game at a relatively cheap cost
Kawhi Leonard ($10,300) The price tag is elevated past what were normally used to seeing for Leonard and it might not be high enough. I think there’s a case to be made he’s been the best player in the playoffs thus far and has been dominant in every game. His stats in the Mavericks series (32.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.3 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 63.9% TS, 30.7% USG) in 39.2 MPG show a ceiling we aren’t used to from regular season Kawhi. I want either him or Jokic (or both) as anchors for my cash team. In tournaments, I’d look to take an underweight position and build heavier around Tatum/Jokic as core pieces.
Paul Millsap ($4,300) Shout-out to the Hoop-Ball podcast (with Mike Apotria and myself) for this call, but it makes a ton of sense with how I think this series is going to play out. Millsap has been awful in the playoffs outside of one game and hasn’t seen any sort of consistent minutes floor yet. But in this series, I think Denver is going to heavily rely on Grant, Craig and Harris to defend Paul George, leaving very little time for Grant to slide down to the 4. And if MPJ doesn’t see much action in this series because of his defensive ineptitude, that leaves Millsap as the primary guy to take the minutes at the 4. I’m not expecting anything huge from him, but I think somewhere in the 26-28 minute range is extremely likely and he’s by far the best FPPM producer down in this range on the slate. Fire him up in tournaments and I think he’s going to be in play in cash at this tag.
Landry Shamet ($3,800), Gary Harris ($4,200), Torrey Craig ($3,600)
I’m grouping all these guys together as viable cheap punts to fit mega-stud lineups. They aren’t safe plays, but we can be reasonably confident they’ll have a minutes role into the mid-20’s. I’d rank them Harris-Shamet-Craig in order of preference.
That’s it! Please message me on twitter if you have any questions about the slate @AsmusSports or have any feedback about the article. I’d love to get a chance to talk NBA DFS with you readers and find ways to get better myself.
September 2, 2020, 11:02 am
DFS Delivery: Wednesday September 2nd, 2020
By Santino Caccone (twitter: @SantinoCaccone)
We’re in Round 2 in the Eastern Conference as the Bucks find themselves in a similar place once again down 1-0. While we have our one remaining matchup in the first round with a Game 7 between the James Harden-led Rockets and Chris Paul-led Thunder. Let’s get into it!
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
(Note: DraftKings pricing)
Jimmy Butler ($8,300) & Bam Adebayo ($7,900)
When starting with the Heat the two guys we look at first are Adebayo and Butler. Both are in good spots, with Bam getting a rebound boost, while Butler has a big matchup advantage. In a superstar-free lineup, getting both is a great start as both should continue to bring back value in this series. But I lean towards Bam out of the two because of roster construction. While I think a few C’s have a solid base here, Bam is the only one with that blow up potential, compared to the guards/forwards where the alternatives are better. Bam only took 12 shots last game, but has been on a glass binge, and with Brook Lopez being allergic to rebounds, Bam can continue to crush the boards in this series.
Goran Dragic ($6,900)
Dragic’s price continues to rise with each game, and he’s nearly at 7K now. While this may give pause to some, it doesn’t over here. He’s simply been fantastic all bubble and especially through these playoffs. His lowest scoring game of the bubble was the first game in which he scored 29 DK points, and since he’s never scored under 31 DK points. With Kendrick Nunn still no threat to his playing time or starting status, Dragic can continue to give us a minimum of 30+ points, and makes sense especially if you shy away from the two big guys.
Jae Crowder ($4,600)
The Heat are deep and loaded with quality options, but we lean towards Crowder among them. He played 35 minutes in that first one, and could once again see that run. With Bam Adebayo guarding Giannis Antetkounmpo, Crowder gets the tall statue that is Brook Lopez. Crowder grabbed 9 boards in the last game, and could again grab a solid number of rebounds as Lopez tends to not crash the boards. Add in a few threes from the streaky shooter, and he has a quality floor with room for more.
Khris Middleton ($8,100)
Giannis Antetokounmpo at $11,400 is obviously always in play as well, and coming off a disappointing loss should be in line for a bounceback (or you know, a better shooting near triple-double), but Middleton clocks in as a nice value here in a better matchup that doesn’t involve Bam Adebayo. He’s been playing well lately, and another 40+ point DK performance should be in store for him. If Eric Bledsoe sits again, we can expect Middleton to continue getting a usage bump and once again initiating more of the offense.
Brook Lopez ($5,500)
Lopez has been shooting great lately and he gets open looks in this offense. With the massive size advantage that he has in this matchup, there should be no excuse as to only getting one rebound. If he remembers that he’s seven feet and decides to grab a few extra boards he should continue hitting value at an affordable price.
George Hill ($4,300)
This play hinges on the availability of Eric Bledsoe, as if he plays, Hill would take a hit. If he sits this one out, Hill who saw a whipping 36 minutes in Game 1, becomes a high-owned value play. Anyone seeing that kind of run at this price on a slate with just two games, is certainly an option to be in lineups. The veteran Hill is no longer at his peak, but he still has big games in him, especially when he’s needed.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets
Chris Paul ($8,200)
There are quite a few options right at this price range, and there are other nice options on this team to go with as fallbacks, but Paul is out for vengeance against the team made him the scapegoat the past two years, shipped him off to a rebuilding team that wound up not moving him. He took over the game in the fourth quarter of Game 6, and it is clear that it is personal for him. Even at his age, he is still a premiere baller and in a Game 7 under the above circumstances, he is definitely in play.
Dennis Schroder ($6,400)
This is a great price tag for a guy that has been very aggressive and playing heavy minutes this series. He went 0-for-5 from distance in Game 6 and still put up 25+ DraftKings points. Schroeder makes for a great pivot if you want to go with the forwards in the first game with the money that Paul costs.
Steven Adams ($5,700)
The few extra days off looked to help Adams the past two games with the knee injury that he was dealing with. He’s moving better and even saw his minutes jump into the 30’s in Game 6. He’s grabbed double-digit boards in every game sans one in this series’ and has a solid floor because of such. He missed a few easy ones in Game 6, and if they fall in this one can be sitting on a nice return.
Darius Bazley ($3,900)
There are only a few guys 4K and under that have solid roles on this slate, and we covered them on the podcast. Bazley is one of them, and if I’m stuck in this range, I’d be looking his way. His role isn’t as safe as others, but he’s been playing well the past two games with a high rebounding rate while using his size advantage to get draw fouls down low. And if Adams were to get in foul trouble, his upside is greater than the other options.
James Harden ($11,200)
Game 7, against his former teammate that he may or may not have asked to be traded away, with his quote on quote legacy on the line, with Luguentz Dort getting praised for the defensive job that he’s doing, all adds up to this; Harden is due for a blow up game. The way the fourth quarter went down in Game 6 where Harden not only went invisible over the last 5-7 minutes, but wasn’t even touching the ball on offense, was pitiful by this team. There is no way the best offensive player in the league should not have the ball in his hands with the game on the line. I can’t fathom that he or the team let that happen again. I’ll be buying many shares of The Beard.
Russell Westbrook ($8,900)
Westbrook played beyond poorly in the last game. Add in the fact that he’s still expected to be limited, and it’s extremely hard to find any positives here. Since he’s come back he has 24 points on 27 shots from the field and 1-of-4 from the free throw line. After saying all that, there’s a few things in his favor; he can’t possibly be worse in the next one, he’s under 9K, his ownership is going to be extremely low with the bad taste he’s left in owners mouths, and if this game is as close as the last one, I find it hard to believe that he’ll be on a strict minutes limit in a win-or-go-home game. If you’re playing multiple lineups, Westbrook should see some shares. He’s not trying to get beat by the team that traded him ahead of a supposed rebuild.
Robert Covington ($5,900)
Covington has been playing great lately, being more assertive and letting the shots fly from deep, while putting up the stocks that we’ve come to love from him. Covington is a streaky shooter and streaky player over all. But this is the Covington that we have been waiting for, and you want to attack him while he’s here. He’s one of the few guys that a bunch of stocks in a previous game isn’t an aberration we can necessarily chalk up as an aberration.
PJ Tucker ($4,500)
I’ll throw this one in here for Mike, as he is higher on Tucker than I am. Tucker has been rebounding the ball well lately, and sees his fair share of open looks from deep each game. Although he doesn’t see much usage, he’s playing heavy minutes and if he can hit an extra three or so and continue to get some steals, a solid return is on the table.
September 1, 2020, 11:25 am
DFS Delivery: Tuesday September 1st, 2020
By Steven Williams (twitter: @ZeroStarkThirty)
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
(Note: DraftKings pricing)
Jaylen Brown ($7,300 DK)
Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum have similar FPPM (fantasy point per minute) production vs the Raptors in their five matchups so far this season. Because of that I prefer Brown at $1900 cheaper. Brown did not shoot well in game 1, he went 6-18 from the field. Foul trouble combined with the semi-blowout nature of this game limited Brown to 31 minutes. Brown has significant room to improve for game 2.
Daniel Theis ($5,200 DK)
Theis pulled down 15 rebounds in game 1, I do not expect that to happen again, but I do expect Theis to play a few more minutes as early foul trouble limited his minutes. Theis is the Celtics only starting caliber big and they will need him. I don’t expect another blowout.
Robert Williams ($3,300 DK)
Enes Kanter was a DNP-CD in game 1. Kanter is a bad match up for this Raptors team and Stevens has already showed us that he is not obligated to give Kanter minutes. Williams makes for a good punt option if you need someone cheap to fill out your lineups.
Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK)
Lowry is priced at $100 below his back-court mate Fred Vanvleet. Lowry has higher DK point averages against the Celtics. We will have to see if we get any word on the matchups, but if Kemba is guarding Lowry again I like him at $7,700 as a pivot play against the highly-owned guards from the 2nd game.
Serge Ibaka ($6,200 DK)
Marc Gasol was bad in game 1. Look for Nurse to make some adjustments and go to the more agile Ibaka for more minutes in game 2.
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
Donovan Mitchell ($9,900 DK)
Mitchell has been amazing in this series against the Nuggets. He usage is all the way up to 37% on the playoffs. He will be the focal point of the Jazz offense and he will get his shots. Gary Harris came back for Game 6 and was not able to do anything to slow Mitchell down.
Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DK)
The Jazz have been getting killed in the non-Gobert minutes. His backups can not play significant minutes in a game 7. Gobert has been falling just short of value but I see no real reason for this. If he plays 40+ minutes he is capable of smashing value at $7,900.
Joe Ingles ($5,300 DK)
Ingles seems like the kind of guy that would not shy away from a game 5. I think the Jazz will keep their line up as short as possible. Ingles should have all the minutes he can handle.
Mike Conley ($6,800 DK)
Conley has averaged 38 DK points in 5 matchups vs the Nuggets this season. He should be matched up with Jamal Murray, who is not even a good defender when he not carrying such a massive offensive load. Look for Conley to be aggressive and go at Murray early and often.
Jamal Murray ($9,700 DK)
No one on the Jazz team is guarding Murray well. He is shooting over 50% from the field vs each of his primary defenders. I’ll bet Murray has been stewing all year of his lackluster game 7 against the Trailblazers last year where he went 4/18 from the field. I won’t have any exposure to this team outside of Murray and a few shares of Nikola Jokic. Can we please get one more Mitchell vs. Murray?