December 28, 2018, 3:56 pm
December 28, 2018, 11:10 am
Welcome back! It is Friday, December 28 and we are only a few days away from the start of a fresh new year. That means this will be my last DFS article of 2018 and we are looking to end the year with a bang. Don’t forget, tonight we are hosting out weekly “Beat the Expert” contest and we have a total of 100 spots to fill. This time it is slightly different as contestants will be allowed to fill out up to three contest entries. You always hear me talking about making multiple lineups, well now is your chance.
We have 10 games on the docket tonight, but you will notice a lot of the plays I am targeting are in the same games. So don’t be scared, we are going to let all the other fish play a 10-game slate, while we take advantage of a few good games with players in great spots. Let’s get down to business and jump right in.
Lonzo Ball vs. Clippers $5,900- Ball is coming off a massive game with barely any price increase. We already know Rajon Rondo and LeBron James have been ruled out, so he will be the primary ball handler. He will surely be chalky after last night’s game against the Kings. Josh Hart is also in play as a value play. He is only $4,200 and is in a game we will be talking about a lot. He is expected to continue starting with LeBron sitting out.
Derrick Rose vs. Hawks $7,100- The Hawks play at one of the league’s fastest paces, making this spot worth paying up for Rose. Rose blew up against the Bulls with the help of a little narrative, but With Jeff Teague out of the lineup we know Rose will start and he has been chucking all season long. The floor seems safe for Rose while still offering some upside.
John Wall vs. Bulls $9,000- The Bulls are terrible against point guards and I don’t see that changing tonight. Wall has been playing with purpose as of late and he is far too underpriced for any matchup, let alone this one. He is the most expensive point guard I would consider other than Russell Westbrook.
Dennis Schroder vs. Suns $5,300- Schroder is only averaging 20 DK points per game over the last four games, but the shot attempts have been there and the minutes are steady. Schroder has 35 DK point upside in this matchup and even if the game gets out of hand should have no problem seeing time in the fourth quarter. He is going to be low-owned but remains a tournament play. Paul George is currently being listed as a GTD; PG missing this one would only boost Schroder’s value even more.
Brandon Ingram vs. Clippers $6,300- I mentioned it on the podcast yesterday, as long as LeBron is out everyone on this Lakers team gets a boost. I focus on the three main primary guys being Ball, Ingram and Kyle Kuzma, while utilizing the cheaper options as one-offs. Either way I want some exposure to this team again and Ingram is a solid way. It’s frustrating that his is not small forward eligible and I think I would prefer Ball over him, but he will be lower owned.
Luka Doncic vs. Pelicans $8,700- I was all over Luka in this spot a few days ago and the small price increase isn’t steering me away. I want Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews to both be ruled out and in that case we should see Doncic chucking at least 15 shots while being the primary ball handler. This game is going to have a fast pace and points will be scored. J.J. Barea is in play as well at $5,100, but I don’t think I would play both.
I mentioned on the podcast playing similarly priced players in spots where you are playing multiple lineups. A great example of this could be sampling swapping out your shooting guard spot with Doncic and Devin Booker in multiple lineups. I like both of these guys and they both possess the upside to break a slate. That being said they are priced fairly and it is going to be a tough decision on which one I will be overweight on.
Kyle Kuzma vs. Clippers $7,700- I mentioned it above with Ingram and Ball; these are the three guys I will have exposure to on the Lakers side and it seems foolish to avoid all of them. Kuzma took 24 shots in the first game without LeBron and I don’t see that trending downward anytime soon.
T.J. Warren vs. Thunder $6,300- I will be all over this game if Paul George is out and will still have some decent exposure regardless. Warren thrives in these fast-paced matchups and even though the Thunder have one of the league’s top defenses, they play at such a fast pace that they still manage to give up enough points.
Warren is priced more than fair and he is averaging 33 DK points in three games versus the Thunder earlier this season. Kelly Oubre Jr. makes for a solid play as well. His minutes have been steadily rising and he could also be used as a pivot play to Warren.
Justise Winslow vs. Cavs $5,800- Point-Winslow is a real thing. The problem I always have is jumping on the train at the right time. Last time, I was wrong. It was actually during our “Beat the Expert” contest two weeks ago, but the Heat were playing the Jazz that night and the game got out of hand quickly. Luckily, the Cavs are much worse than the Jazz and Winslow will likely draw Cedi Osman as a defensive matchup.
Blake Griffin vs. Pacers $8,400- I do not love targeting players versus the Pacers, but this price for Blake Griffin made me double take. This is a guy who is dropping at least 40 DK points for the better half of the season thus far. Not a must-play by any means, but this price is the lowest it will be for a while.
Tobias Harris vs. Lakers $7,600- This is a fantastic spot for Harris. The pace will be fast, the total should be high and Harris will be drawing matchups for inexperienced smaller forwards. We already know we are targeting some Lakers and Harris is my favorite way to get some correlation on the other side.
Markieff Morris v. Bulls $4,400– I think we are witnessing some disrespect on Markieff’s price tag. Bulls are terrible against every position defensively and Morris is coming off of a game where he played 36 minutes. Now if we know we are getting those minutes again he is a near lock at this price, but that’s the problem we run into. Still, the matchup is tasty enough to get a shot in a few spots and if he has scored at least 26 DK points over the last three games; we’d take that at $4,400 for decent 6x value.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Hawks $9,600-This is a great spot for Towns, but we are going to have to pay up for him. If you are getting Towns in a lineup is going to come down to lineup construction. We have some centers who are cheaper and still possess upside, but I will have exposure in lineups I dodge Rose.
Steven Adams vs. Suns $6,800- I mentioned targeting this game and Paul George’s availability will definitely matter on this slate, but Adams’ role is secure whether we have the news before lock or not. He is averaging just about 40 DK points per game in two meetings against the Suns this season and targeting Deandre Ayton’s defense is a thing we do to make money.
Dewayne Dedmon vs. Timberwolves $5,500- Well, some may have missed out on the Dedmon explosion, but fear not, this is another great spot for him. The Timberwolves are terrible against opposing centers and Alex Len has already been ruled out, leaving Dedmon to man the center position.
As always thank you for the continued support and if you have any questions or comments feel free to follow me or shoot me a tweet @mikeapotria. Good luck to everyone competing in tonight’s “Beat the Expert” contest! It is going to be a good one!
December 26, 2018, 4:56 pm
Be sure to join our latest Beat the Expert contest on DraftKings! See if you can top Mike Apotria on Friday. With 100 entrants, the prizes have gotten even bigger — the top-10 all take home $30, with second place also getting a gift bag from Hawaiian Isles Kona Coffee and the first place finisher getting a Hoop Ball t-shirt! Reserve your entry by clicking here!
De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD, DK) – Fox has played at an all-star level and has the Kings in the playoff race for the first time in a long time. Tonight he plays the Clippers, in a matchup of two of the fastest teams in the league.
Kris Dunn ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK) – If you like narratives then Dunn is a great play. He faces off against his former team and coach who hasn’t give him glowing reviews since the trade to Chicago. Dunn has played well lately and if Zach LaVine misses this game Dunn becomes even a stronger play.
Other good buys: Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,900 FD, $7,000 DK), Fred VanVleet ($5,600 FD, $5,900 DK).
Devin Booker ($9,100 FD, $8,500 DK) – Booker has been hot lately and has the Suns playing a lot better. Tonight the Suns get the Magic in a soft matchup that Booker should be able to take advantage of.
Buddy Hield ($6,700 FD, $7,200 DK) – Hield is another player who has been in a good rhythm for his team. The Clippers and Kings game is one that I’m targeting today as it’ll be an up and down affair that will lead to a lot of extra possessions.
Other good buys: Luka Doncic ($8,300 FD, DK), Monte Morris ($5,700 FD, $4,600 DK)
Kawhi Leonard ($10,400 FD, $9,500 DK) – Kyle Lowry is doubtful tonight which means Leonard will be left to carry the load once again. Leonard has dominated with Lowry off the floor so he has the potential for another huge night.
Justise Winslow ($5,500 FD, DK) – Coach Spoelstra has come out and declared that Winslow will remain the team’s starting point guard with Goran Dragic out. Winslow has shown he can put up some big numbers when give the opportunity and he seems like a lock for extended minutes for the foreseeable future.
Other good buys: T.J. Warren ($7,600 FD, $6,100 DK), Jeff Green ($5,100 FD, $4,200 DK)
Tobias Harris ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK) – Like I said, I’m targeting the Clippers and Kings matchup tonight. Harris looks like the best candidate from the Clippers to have a big night as the Kings have struggled on the interior.
Rodions Kurucs ($4,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – Kurucs has entered the starting lineup with Allen Crabbe going down with an injury and has played well; well enough that he may stick in the starting five even after Crabbe returns. Tonight, Kurucs gets the Hornets at home and makes for a solid cheap play.
Other good buys: Anthony Davis ($12,500 FD, $11,800 DK), Blake Griffin ($9,100 FD, $9,000 DK)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,100 FD, $9,400 DK) – Towns and the Wolves will face off against the Bulls tonight in a matchup Towns can certainly take advantage of. The Bulls have struggled to defend centers all year which means KAT could be in for a big game.
Deandre Ayton ($8,200 FD, $7,800 DK) – Ayton has been red-hot lately as he’s gone for 20 or more points in four straight while pulling down 17 or more rebounds in three straight games. Look for Ayton to keep it going against the Magic tonight.
Other good buys: Nikola Vucevic ($8,900 FD, DK), Cody Zeller ($5,300 FD, $4,400 DK)
December 26, 2018, 3:46 pm
December 21, 2018, 1:04 pm
It is Friday, December 21 and that means I am here to help break down tonight’s DFS slate and find some value. We have 10 games to sort through and we will have to monitor the news throughout the day for some of these plays to be in their best spots. Nonetheless, there is plenty of information we do have to go off of and plenty of options all over the board. Let’s jump right into this slate.
Jrue Holiday vs. Lakers $9,000 – We have some bodies that will be questionable going into late games and if Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic are out we know Holiday sees a huge bump in usage. If Anthony Davis is forced to miss as well, well, just expect a ton of shots by Holiday. This is the one guy that could benefit from any Pelicans missing the game that doesn’t also have a questionable tag himself. This is a great spot on paper and the matchup is going to be fast. I wish he was still in the $8,000-$8,800 range, but I’ll still be getting plenty of exposure. Kyrie Irving makes for a solid pivot off of Holiday. Similar price range and both are very much in play.
Donovan Mitchell vs. $7,100 Blazers – I just think this price tag is too low for Mitchell’s upside. The matchup could be better, but it’s not terrible. He’s taken over 20 shot attempts in each of the past three games and is averaging 34.3 DK over his last five games. He also makes a great pivot to a chalkier Derrick Rose play at a similar price.
Fred VanVleet vs. Cavs $5,500 – There isn’t much meat left on bone with this price tag, but we know he will be getting plenty of minutes and the Cavs are one of the league’s worst teams at defending opposing point guards. As of early Friday morning I am not seeing a whole lot of value that I am locking in and VanVleet still possesses 35 DK-point upside.
Victor Oladipo vs. Nets $8,100 – Similar to Mitchell, I think that we are seeing Oladipo at a depressed salary. The matchup is a great one on paper and when these two teams faced off earlier in the year Oladipo dropped 46.3 DK points. Not much more to say about Dipo, he’s due to blow up soon and we have to remember what this guy’s price tag was looking like earlier in the season.
Derrick Rose vs. Spurs $7,200 – We are seeing a price increase for Rose coming off of a massive overtime game where he took 29 shots. No Teague means we are going to see a boatload of Rose. He is going to be a somewhat chalky play, but I am hoping the matchup and price tag steer some people away from him and I am still expecting a massive usage for him tonight.
Kent Bazemore vs. Knicks $6,200 – I’ve been riding Bazemore ever since Taurean Prince has gone down and this doesn’t look like the matchup to get off. It should be played at a face pace and I am not expecting a lot of defense to played. Bazemore has immense upside given the fact that he could rack up steals and rebounds quickly and the Knicks are a team that has some turnover-prone guards.
Kawhi Leonard vs. Cavs $9,500 – We already know that Kyle Lowry has been ruled out, so if you think this game stays close, jump on Leonard. There is obvious risk of blowout here, but that isn’t scaring me away from Leonard given his price tag with Lowry out. Leonard has already played the Cavs twice this season and is averaging almost 50 DK points per game; Lowry played in one of those games.
Kyle Kuzma vs. Pelicans $7,200 – Kuzma has been one of the primary focuses of this Laker offense since Brandon Ingram has been out. By now, you guys know I love targeting the Pelicans due to the pace and high scoring. This is a fair price at $7,200 as he is averaging 36 DK points over the past five games and has been seeing a boatload of minutes. I really need Ingram to be ruled out to load up on Kuzma and I am a little worried because this is the late game and Ingram participated in Thursday’s practice.
Gordon Hayward vs. Bucks $5,400 – I was all over Hayward in the Celtics’ last game against the Suns. Marcus Morris was ruled out of that game prior to tipoff and that opens up the opportunity for Hayward to take advantage of the small ball lineups. The problem was he only took eight shot attempts, but on the bright side still managed 28.75 DK points so I didn’t get burned. Morris is currently being considered questionable and if forced to miss again I am going right back to the well. I am not looking at a whole ton of value this slate and if the chips fall into place Hayward could be viable. We could also to look to Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis in the situation in which Morris misses as well. Theis should see a small bump regardless with Aron Baynes being ruled out already, but I am really worried this game goes small.
Anthony Davis vs. Lakers $11,700 – The whole world was burned by Davis last game when he took one of his notorious trips to the locker room. He was on pace to smash and had 29.5 DK points at the end of the first quarter. If Randle and Mirotic are both forced to sit out again I think we have to look this way. We have a ton of mid-tier value, so spending up on Davis may not be the optimal approach, but I can promise that I will have exposure if the situation sets up right.
Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Kings- $5,800 – I love this spot for Jackson regardless, but I am going to be all over him if JaMychal Green is ruled out. Currently Green is being listed as a GTD with left hamstring soreness, so this isn’t just a case where he is questionable with an illness. I will be tentative to play Jackson if Green does play, but he will be low-owned and not having the news could play into our advantage.
Pascal Siakam vs. Cavs $6,300 – If we get the word that Serge Ibaka is sitting out again I think we go back to the well. It’s pretty simple with this situation in DFS. If any main pieces of this Raptors’ offense are out we see Kawhi Leonard and Siakam get a huge increase in usage. It’s the first game of the night so the news should be there for us.
Nikola Vucevic vs. Bulls $9,200 – The Bulls are poor against defending every position, the center spot being one of their worst. Vucevic missed the last game due to the birth of a child, which gives us a little narrative. It also gave him plenty of time to rest coming into this game. He is a little expensive, but we also saw him drop 49 DK points in this matchup earlier this season.
Enes Kanter vs. Hawks $7,000 – We know what kind of upside Kanter has on any given night and with Mitchell Robinson already ruled out we get a security blanket on his minutes. This is a great spot for Kanter as this should be a fast-paced game with very little defense being played. There is always risk baked into playing any Knicks, but the upside is there for both Kanter and Hardaway on this slate.
Larry Nance Jr. vs. Raptors $6,700 – Nance is in play every night. He is a boom/bust type play where if the games stay close he is almost guaranteed to boom. Nance has been doing it all and filling the stat sheet in these situations and the Cavs have been hanging around in games longer than expected. Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out and that may be the help we need to keep this game close in order for Nance to smash for us again.
As always I would just like to give a big thank you to those who have supported the “Beat the Expert” Hoop Ball contest. We filled up 61 spots and I am hoping to see that number rise next week. If you have any questions or concerns you could find me on Twitter @mikeapotria. Good Luck and take down a GPP for the Hoop Ball community.
December 19, 2018, 3:45 pm
December 19, 2018, 1:41 pm
Before we get into it, don’t forget to join tonight’s Beat the Expert contest on DraftKings! We’ve expanded the contest to 100 spots, which means the top-10 win $30 apiece! First place gets a Hoop Ball t-shirt and second place gets a gift pack from Hawaiian Isles Kona Coffee! Join tonight by clicking here.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($7,300 FD, $6,400 DK) – After struggling his first few years, Mudiay is starting to show some of that promise that made him a lottery pick. He has strung together a few good games and gets the 76ers tonight.
Derrick Rose ($6,200 FD, $6,700 DK) – Jeff Teague has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup and Rose has excelled with Teague out of the lineup. Teague was out last game and Rose was on his way to a monster night before the game quickly turned into a blowout. Hopefully, the Pistons can keep the game close tonight.
Other good buys: Russell Westbrook ($11,400 FD, $11,000 DK), Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD, $9,100 DK).
James Harden ($11,600 FD, $11,400 DK) – Harden has been red hot over his last few games and shows no signs of slowing down as he tries to pull the Rockets out of the early hole they dug themselves in. He gets the Wizards tonight in a soft matchup.
Devin Booker ($8,600 FD, $8,700 DK) – Booker has come back strong from his injury. He’s dropped 28 and 38 in two games back as he continues to show off his all-around offensive game. Booker has a tough matchup against the Celtics but he’s put on a show in Boston before.
Other good buys: Jeremy Lamb ($6,400 FD, $5,800 DK), Justin Holiday ($5,400 FD, $5,600 DK),
Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD, $9,200 DK) – Leonard has been consistent as they come through the first part of the year and is firmly in the MVP discussion. Tonight he faces the Pacers, who have played great defense all year, but Leonard has shown he is matchup proof.
Joe Harris ($5,000 FD, $5,100 DK) – Harris has stepped up nicely with Allen Crabbe going down. If Crabbe is out again for tonight’s game against the Bulls look for Harris to have another good game.
Other good buys: Paul George ($9,400 FD, $8,900 DK), T.J. Warren ($7,100 FD, $6,800 DK).
Lauri Markkanen ($7,400 FD, DK) – Markkanen’s strong rookie campaign has carried over into his sophomore year as he’s played well since he’s come back from injury. The Nets have struggled against big men so look for another solid game from Markkanen.
Kevin Knox ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK) – Knox was placed in the starting lineup a week ago and seems like he will stay there for a while. Knox has played well despite two down games in his last two outings. He should bounce back against the 76ers tonight.
Other good buys: Anthony Davis ($12,700 FD, $11,600 DK), Larry Nance ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK).
Joel Embiid ($10,700 FD, $10,200 DK) – Embiid has been dominant this year and has put up some monster stat lines. Tonight he gets the Knicks and Enes Kanter, who has struggled on defense his whole career.
Myles Turner ($7,100 FD, $6,600 DK) – Turner is enjoying one of, if not the best, stretches of his young career. If his minutes stay consistent like they have been over the past couple of weeks he has the ability to put up some big numbers. Tonight he gets the Raptors, who have given up some big rebounding games to centers this year.
Other good buys: Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,900 FD, $9,700 DK), Marc Gasol ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK).
December 18, 2018, 3:50 pm
December 14, 2018, 12:25 pm
Welcome back! It is Friday, December 14 and we have nine games on tonight’s slate to comb through and find value. I am really interested in tonight’s slate because even though it is fairly large with nine games, we could really get a good number of those right out and focus on the ones with higher totals. Again, we always know who the studs are and what they could do, so I tend to leave them out and focus more on the value plays. This is an early look and monitoring the news and information being released throughout the day will be essential tonight. As of now we do not have the news on whether or not Jimmy Butler will play. This will have major implications on value and whether or not I am looking to get exposure to Ben Simmons. Now that that’s out of the way let’s jump right in.
Damian Lillard vs. Raptors $8,500 – There are not a lot of games I am in love with on tonight’s slate, but this should be a good one and Lillard is just too cheap. I love targeting Lillard in matchups where we could expect C.J. McCollum to struggle. Tonight he should draw Danny Green as a defensive matchup and Green is no slouch. It should be one of the tighter games on the slate and one I am surely looking to target.
Dennis Schroder vs. Nuggets $5,600 – I played Schroder Wednesday against the Pelicans in what was a high-scoring and fast-paced game. This one does not have all of the same makings, but it is another game that should be competitive and when they are we know we can expect good minutes from Schroder. Players with high bench usage tend to fly under the radar and as of now that is what is happening to Schroder. He’s just a little too cheap.
Bradley Beal vs. Nets $7,900 -You will hear me mention targeting specific games throughout the night and that is simply because I don’t like a lot of the other game totals, matchups and paces. This is another one I will surely have exposure too and Beal is a great option at his price. I am not going to lie, I tend to play Beal on all of the wrong nights, but this is a more-than-fair price for his upside and this matchup is one of the best on paper. John Wall is certainly in play as well; I just don’t think I would be playing them together.
Klay Thompson vs. Kings $6,200 – If you have read these articles in the past then I am sure you have heard me mention targeting shooting guards against the Kings. They are susceptible against the three and play at such a fast pace that should see Klay taking plenty in transition. There is not really a bad play on the Warriors in this spot, it is just so hard to peg which one is having the game on any given night. Well, Thompson is much cheaper and still provides just as much upside. If I had to rank the Warriors on a point per dollar basis it would be: Klay, Curry, Durant, Draymond.
Paul George vs. Nuggets $9,100 – I like the matchup and I think the price is fair. George has been aggressive as of late and in this matchup earlier in the year he dropped 55 DK points. I will likely look to have a player from the Thunder in almost every lineup because of how much I like this game.
Juancho Hernangomez vs. Thunder $4,700 –It is Friday so you already know I am talking about my guy Juancho. The floor is safe, the minutes are safe and the upside is there. In this previous matchup Hernangomez dropped 32 DK points and more opportunity and minutes have become available. If we get word that Mason Plumlee is starting again I would be slightly off of Hernangomez. I like him to have rebounding upside and Plumlee starting certainly limits that. On the flip side, Plumlee is in play himself if starting.
Kevin Knox vs. Hornets $4,800 – I don’t think I am quite buying into Knox’s season-long value, but right now he is hot and worth riding. He’s been reinserted into the starting lineup, but this time around is actually taking shots. It’s a solid matchup versus the Hornets, a team who has struggled against wings this season.
John Collins vs. Celtics $7,200 – Collins has been crushing and now you are telling me we get a matchup against a poor rebounding team missing their best big man. Sign me up. He is power forward eligible now, which makes lineup construction so much easier, and he’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Serge Ibaka vs. Blazers $6,300 – A lot of people may be thinking about Greg Monroe with Jonas Valacunias out, but I am turning to the regular bigs in the rotation and hoping they see some extended run. I mentioned wanting to get some exposure to this game and as of now Ibaka is my favorite Raptor. If we get the word the Kawhi Leonard is sitting out again he is even better and there is a chance we see his minutes creep over 35 tonight if the game stays close.
Markieff Morris vs. Nets $5,100 – I prefer to spend up on Wall or Beal in this matchup, but we know the Wizards are going to need Morris’ size and he is still coming off of the bench, which is a big boost to his value. We would much rather see him sharing usage with Austin Rivers than John Wall. He is at a more-than-fair price and had a big game against the Nets earlier this month, scoring over 40 DK points, so we know the upside is there tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic vs. Raptors $6,700 –I just mentioned how the Raptors will be lacking some size inside and that is surely something Nurkic could take advantage of. We have seen him put up numbers in limited minutes and if games stay close he tends to see right around 30 minutes. In those minutes he could do some damage to this frontcourt.
Jarrett Allen vs. Wizards $5,600 – I love this price, I love this spot and I am definitely playing some Allen tonight. The Wizards have been bleeding points to starting centers ever since loosing Dwight Howard and Allen has shown the ability to stretch the floor, which could cause some problems for Thomas Bryant. A lot of people will be looking at his last game where Joel Embiid abused him; this hopefully lowers his ownership for the rest of us.
Brook Lopez vs. Cavs $4,800 – Lopez has played 30-plus minutes in three of the last four games and tonight he, like Allen, draws a matchup against a team with very little depth at the position. I am a little worried about this game staying close, but hey I felt the same about the Cavs versus Warriors game and it did long enough for teams to produce value. Either way Lopez is priced cheap enough to hit value in even limited minutes.
As always if you have any questions or comments you could fin me on Twitter @MikeApotria. Don’t forget that every Wednesday we will be hosting our weekly “Beat the Expert” contest and this upcoming week we are looking to expand it! Good luck out there and take one down for Hoop Ball.
December 13, 2018, 4:06 pm
December 12, 2018, 3:49 pm
December 12, 2018, 1:43 pm
Be sure to join our Beat the Expert contest tonight! You can join by clicking right here. The top 10 spots pay out, second place gets a gift pack from Hawaiian Isles Kona Coffee Co. and the overall winner gets a Hoop Ball t-shirt! Good luck out there!
Russell Westbrook ($11,500 FD, $10,900 DK) – Westbrook is at his usual expensive price but tonight he may be well worth it. He gets the Pelicans tonight who love to run, which plays nicely into Westbrook’s game.
Jalen Brunson ($4,500 FD, $3,800 DK) – Dennis Smith has again been ruled out for tonight’s game which means another start for Brunson. Brunson has stepped up nicely with Smith out and has a great matchup against the woeful Hawks.
Other good buys: Steph Curry ($9,400 FD, $9,800 DK), Derrick Rose ($5,900 FD, $5,800 DK).
Kent Bazemore ($6,600 FD, $5,500 DK) – Bazemore has played extremely well since his insertion into the starting lineup and will get another start with Taurean Prince still on the mend. He has a good matchup tonight against the Mavs and should hit value.
Furkan Korkmaz ($4,200 FD, $3,200 DK) – With Jimmy Butler doubtful for tonight’s matchup against the Nets, Korkmaz should step into a bigger role. Considering his price, opportunity and matchup, I think Korkmaz makes for a great play.
Other good buys: Jrue Holiday ($9,100 FD, $7,900 DK), D’Angelo Russell ($7,100 FD, $7,500 DK),
Kawhi Leonard ($10,100 FD, $9,400 DK) – Kawhi Leonard sat last night’s game against the Clippers with what was listed as a hip injury but I believe the hip injury was just an excuse to rest him on the first night of a back to back and I expect him to be a go for tonight. Leonard played extremely well in his last game against the Warriors and has the opportunity for another big night tonight.
Justise Winslow ($5,800 FD, $4,900 DK) – Winslow has strung together a few great games and will look to keep it rolling against the Jazz tonight, who just aren’t the defensive juggernaut they were last year.
Other good buys: Paul George ($9,100 FD, $9,000 DK), Jaron Blossomgame ($3,900 FD, $3,400 DK).
Larry Nance ($5,800 FD, $5,700 DK) – Larry Nance will look to fill the void left by Tristan Thompson, who will be out for the next few weeks. Nance has produced when given minutes and tonight he will likely be looking at a heavy load.
Kevin Knox ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) – Knox has been getting more and more minutes and coach Fizdale is considering putting him in the starting five tonight. Either way Knox should get a good amount of minutes tonight, and considering his matchup against the Cavs, he will have plenty of opportunities to do some damage.
Other good buys: Anthony Davis ($12,400 FD, $11,400 DK), Bam Adebayo ($6,500 FD, $6,100 DK)
Joel Embiid ($10,700 FD, $10,500 DK) – With Butler looking likely to miss tonight’s contest, Embiid will have to shoulder a heavier workload. On top of that Embiid has a mouth-watering matchup against the Nets so he could be in for a big night.
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,700, $10,000) – Towns has played well since Butler left town and is back to looking like his old self. KAT plays the Kings tonight, who are one of the fastest teams in the league, which means more possessions for Towns.
Other good buys: Enes Kanter ($7,400 FD, $6,500 DK), Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,900 FD, $5,900)
December 10, 2018, 4:00 pm
December 7, 2018, 3:52 pm
December 7, 2018, 2:45 pm
It is Friday, December 7, but you would think it was Black Friday with all of discounts and savings we have on tonight’s slate. We have 10 games to look at, but as always, by looking at the spreads and game totals we can narrow our focus onto the ones that matter most. We have a lot of injuries on this slate to provide us with more than enough value to allow us to jam in some of these studs with high game totals. Where’s the value and who are the studs? Let’s jump right into some of my favorite plays of the night and find out.
Stephen Curry vs. Bucks $10,000 – Following an explosion on Wednesday night I think it’s safe to go back to the well. I was all over Curry in this first matchup, in fact he was my top play in out first ever “Beat the Expert” contest. Unfortunately, Curry got hurt and because of that I got smoked. This is the game of the night and with Curry healthy I am thinking about it in the same way I did last time. Both he and Durant are too cheap in this matchup and to be honest, every Warrior is in play. Curry is my favorite and likely the one I will have the most exposure too.
Kemba Walker vs. Nuggets $8,000 –He’s been fairly quiet as of late, but let’s not forget the Kemba Walker who was priced over $9,400 at times. He’s at home were he tends to play better and draws a superb matchup against Jamal Murray. This is the cheapest we’ve seen Kemba in a long time and it may be time to jump aboard before we see the hike again.
Reggie Jackson vs. Sixers $5,300 – The news of Ish Smith tearing his adductor secures Jackson’s minutes for the time being. Langston Galloway is expected to handle to backup duties, but Galloway is not your traditional point guard who sets up an offense like Smith would. On top of the Smith news, we got wind that Joel Embiid would be ruled out due to rest leaving the Sixers’ paint vulnerable. We have loads of value to spend up today, but if you want to flirt with the mid-tier I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on Jackson.
Eric Bledsoe vs. Warriors $7,200 – This game has a massive total and the pace at which it will be played should be absurd. I already mentioned wanting to get some exposure to some Warriors tonight and any time I am doing that I look to run it back with someone on the other side. Bledsoe has been playing fantastically as of late and he tends to thrive in these faster-paced games. It’s a good idea to have exposure to this game and even though we have loads of value I can’t see myself paying up for both Giannis and a high-priced Warrior.
Klay Thompson vs. Bucks $6,500 – It is no secret that this will be a popular game. It’s the last game of the night and it should provide tons of fantasy goodness given the high pace and game total. Shooting guards all season have crushed the Bucks and Thompson is one of the best. He hung 38.8 DK points on them in the first meeting and that was a game that got out of hand. He is always a GPP play and if you are choosing to spend your top dollar in another game you could still look Thompson’s way for exposure.
Josh Hart vs. Spurs $3,600 – Brandon Ingram has already been ruled out of the next two games with an ankle sprain and Rajon Rondo was cleared for contact, but not yet cleared to play. This puts Hart in position to be the backup ball handler and this should allow him to squeak out a few more minutes. I do not love this matchup, be we know Hart can produce value in multiple ways, including rebounding, as a guard.
Jimmy Butler vs. Pistons $7,400 – Joel Embiid has already been ruled out early due to rest. This opens up massive usage and value across the board for the Sixers. Butler tends to see the biggest spike in usage, coming in with a whopping 33.2 percent. He wasn’t someone I was on before the news, but it is going to be hard to ignore him now. Ben Simmons ($8,300) is also a fantastic play and averaging 1.34 DK points per minute with Joel Embiid out and much of the load will be on their shoulders tonight. Both of these guys would be priced $1,500 more had DK known about Embiid resting prior to the pricing.
Juancho Hernangomez vs. Hornets $4,400 – DraftKings refuses to price up Hernangomez. It is now three straight games that he has put up 25 DK points and at $4,400 that is just too cheap. We have seen his 40 DK point upside and is worth a look in both cash and GPP’s. Would it really be one of Friday articles if I didn’t mention him?
JaMychal Green vs. Pelicans $4,500 – This is a game I am looking to get some exposure to. Memphis had been playing fantastic defense, but on the other side the Pelicans are bleeding points and generally the teams facing them see their implied team total rise dramatically. Well, tonight that is the case for the Grizzlies and while all of the major players are in play, I am looking to find some savings. It is now back-to-back games where Green has scored at least 30 DK points and he has played at least 25 minutes in each of the least four games. The Pelicans play big, so Green’s minutes should be safe, but we also have to factor in that Jaren Jackson Jr. could always get into foul trouble, boosting Green’s value even more. I wouldn’t mind looking to the way of Mike Conley ($8,400) or Marc Gasol ($8,100) either. Those positions are loaded today, but they will both likely fly under the radar in what is a fantastic matchup on paper.
Kyle Kuzma vs. Spurs $6,800 –Do I love the price tag? No, but with Brandon Ingram already ruled out we have to take into account who that will benefit. Kuzma’s usage rate without Rondo and Ingram on the floor is 25.3 percent and he should be second on the team in shot attempts behind LeBron James. He is small forward eligible as well, which helps because our power forward spot is basically cemented.
Kelly Olynyk vs. Suns $4,000 – Hassan Whiteside has already been ruled out and Olynyk will be of the main beneficiaries. Bam Adebayo will likely draw the start and ownership, but Olynyk will still see a bump and has shown his ability to produce big numbers in even limited minutes. Both of these guys are in play and I could see situations where you could play both in the same lineup.
Amir Johnson vs. Pistons $3,000 – He is stone cold minimum salary and we know Joel Embiid is ruled out. We have a ton of value at power forward today and another option has been soft-tossed to us. The minutes are likely to be split up between Johnson and Mike Muscala, but without Embiid on floor Johnson is averaging 1.04 DK points per minutes (0.24 more than Muscala) and is $800 cheaper.
Andre Drummond vs. Sixers $8,600 – I was on the complete opposite side of the coin earlier today. I was all over Embiid and fading Drummond. It was a matchup Embiid has taken advantage of and Drummond has struggled in. But now all of that gets thrown out of the window with Embiid ruled out. Box score chasers will see how Blake Griffin has dominated over Drummond in the previous matchups and likely turn there, but that was all due to Embiid and with the rivalry these two have I imagine Drummond putting in a little extra effort and smiling at Embiid following a dunk tonight. It may be the chalkiest prop bet ever, but I want those odds whatever they may be.
Tristan Thompson vs. Kings $7,300 – Hopefully the price tag scares a few people away, but it should actually be slightly higher. Over the last three games Thompson is averaging 46 DK points per game and we know the Kings have plenty of big bodies to use to secure Thompson’s playing time. This should be one of the faster-paced games on the slate and getting exposure to those games generally equals profits, but there aren’t a lot of players in Cavaliers’ uniforms that I am feeling overly confident about playing lately so Thompson will be my exposure.
Bam Adebayo vs. Suns $4,200 – Don’t think about this one too much and take your free space. Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out due to the birth of his child and we should see Adebayo have his way with the center minutes. Last night the Suns started Richaun Holmes over Deandre Ayton at center. We would much rather see Adebayo match up against Ayton, but regardless of who starts he is a great, chalky play at this price. It helps that both he and Olynyk are both power forward eligible as well.
Just want to give a big thank you again to everyone who competed and followed this weeks “Beat the Expert” contest and give a big shout out to HI Kona Coffee for being the awesome sponsor they are and hooking up our second place winner with a sweet coffee bundle. We filled this thing up faster than ever and it is growing at an exponential rate. It is all due to our listeners, followers and readers and seeing those who have never dabbled in DFS having a great time is why we do it. We will be dropping another one this coming Wednesday, so make sure you reserve a seat before it fills.
As always if you have any questions or comments you could find me on Twitter @MikeApotria. Good Luck and take a contest down for Hoop Ball.