MPG Projections: Southwest Division

  • (33-37) – In the rotation, estimate of minutes at the end of the year
    (0, 10-18) – 0 indicates player may not be in rotation at times, 10-18 indicates probable mpg at end of year)
    (0, 5-10,*) – * indicates player may not make the roster

    Rick Carlisle
    Coach, Dallas Mavericks

    PG: Delon Wright (26-31) / Jalen Brunson (17-23) / J.J. Barea (0, 9-18)
    SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. (27-31) / Seth Curry (19-25) / Courtney Lee (0, 13-23)
    SF: Luca Doncic (32.5-33.5) / Dorian Finney-Smith (21-25) / Justin Jackson (18-23)
    PF: Kristaps Porzingis (28-31) / Maxi Kleber (24-27) / Isaiah Roby
    C: Dwight Powell (25-27) / Boban Marjanovic (0, 10-14)

    Notes: Rick Carlisle is pretty consistent with playing guys that he trusts and we’ll have to see what that means for some Hoop Ball favorites in Delon Wright, Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. Luckily in terms of predicting, the three-big power rotation should be both effective and consistent, which allows us to zero in on value. There’s just enough depth in the guard slots to make life tough on Wright.

    Mike D'Antoni
    Coach, Houston Rockets

    PG: Russell Westbrook (34-36) / Austin Rivers (25-27) / Chris Chiozza / Shamorie Ponds / Chris Clemons
    SG: James Harden (35.5-37) / Gerald Green (19-23) / Ben McLemore (0, 12-19) / Michael Frazier / William McDowell-White
    SF: Eric Gordon (31-32) / Danuel House (18-24) / Thabo Sefolosha (0, 12-24)
    PF: P.J. Tucker (33-34) / Gary Clark (0, 12-19) / Ryan Anderson (0, 8-16)
    C: Clint Capela (31-34) / Isaiah Hartenstein (16-22) / Tyson Chandler (0, 14-18) / Nene (0, 8-13)

    Notes: This team could get thin fast and somebody like Ben McLemore could end up playing big minutes, though good luck projecting something like that. Isaiah Hartenstein is the most interesting of the group that’s not slated for big minutes early, but other than that we’re just watching to see if Houston can add some depth somehow before the season gets going.

    Taylor Jenkins
    Coach, Memphis Grizzlies

    PG: Ja Morant (32-33) / Tyus Jones (27-30) / De’Anthony Melton (0, 15-24)
    SG: Dillon Brooks (25-29) / Andre Iguodala (rated as gone) / Grayson Allen (0, 18-22) / Josh Jackson (0, 10-20) / John Konchar
    SF: Jae Crowder (25-27) / Kyle Anderson (24-28) / Solomon Hill (0, 10-18)
    PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. (29-31) / Bruno Caboclo (19-24) /
    C: Jonas Valanciunas (25-27) / Brandon Clarke (23-26) / Ivan Rabb (0, 12-17) / Miles Plumlee (0, 9-18)

    Notes: While this is as dumpster-fiery as it gets as an organization, they have managed to do a damn good job assembling talent this summer. Ja Morant is going to get all he can eat, Tyus Jones is solid in a mid-20 mpg role, and of course Jaren Jackson and Jonas Valanciunas are rock solid fantasy assets. You even get really nice upside out of Brandon Clarke and Bruno Caboclo, and De’Anthony Melton could even grow into something decent over time. This all assumes that Andre Iguodala heads out, and the rumors continue to persist that we could see that happen in late September, hopefully late enough to cloud some of these ADPs.

    Alvin Gentry
    Coach, New Orleans Pelicans

    PG: Jrue Holiday (32.5-34) / Lonzo Ball (25-28) / Frank Jackson (0, 10-16)
    SG: J.J. Redick (26-28) / Josh Hart (22-25) / Nickeil Alexander-Walker (0, 18-25)
    SF: Brandon Ingram (26-30) / E’Twaun Moore (23-26) / Darius Miller (0, 18-24)
    PF: Zion Williamson (30-33) / Nicolo Melli (0, 9-18)
    C: Derrick Favors (27-30) / Jaxson Hayes (0, 10-22) / Jahlil Okafor (0, 12-24)

    Notes: What a difference an owner and GM combo make. The Pelicans went from a bad spot to a great one as the basketball gods repaid them for Anthony Davis’ ham-handed power play, and in the process unearthed David Griffin and Gayle Benson in the owner’s chair. Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and J.J. Redick are bound to be overdrafted, while Derrick Favors quietly slides in as a key piece next to Zion Mania and some really solid talent after that, as well. How enigmas like Ingram and Ball fit in here will be basketball nerd heaven.

    Gregg Popovich
    Coach, San Antonio Spurs

    PG: Dejounte Murray (26-30) / Derrick White (26-30)
    SG: Bryn Forbes (26-29) / Patty Mills (23-25) / Marco Belinelli (0, 19-23) / Quinndary Weatherspoon
    SF: DeMar DeRozan (34-34.5) / Lonnie Walker (22-26) / Keldon Johnson (0, 9-18)
    PF: Rudy Gay (25-26) / DeMarre Carroll (23-27) / Luka Samanic (0, 8-16) / Chimezie Metu
    C: LaMarcus Aldridge (32-33) / Jakob Poeltl (17-23)

    Notes: The convergence of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White is going to be interesting, if anything because Pop is going to make both of them earn their minutes, but if they are both successful you’re looking at an extremely long and athletic perimeter unit including DeMar DeRozan as a small forward. The frontcourt isn’t winning and track and field awards, but there’s plenty of talent and experience to make the Spurs playoff contenders in the West again. And even with the competition for minutes, there’s still probably going to be plenty of fantasy value here, too.

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