Let's Dissect the: Draft, Summer League, Free Agency, New Player Rankings

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  • #236740

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Finally the dust is beginning to settle after an intense and incredibly busy 6 weeks of NBA activity! I’m creating this “New Topic” to promote a robust discussion of the Draft, Summer League, Free Agency and how they all directly affect your New Player Rankings for the upcoming season. These are the “dog days” of preparation work for the upcoming season. Let’s all chime in and help each other be more prepared than ever before for the upcoming DFS, Yearly and Dynasty NBA Leagues.

  • #236742

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Let’s start with everyone’s input on the: Top 5 best Free Agent/Trade pickups

    Here are my 5 top picks:
    AD (Lakers immediate Championship contender)
    Kawhi (See above replace with Clippers)
    Paul George (See above replace with Clippers)
    Westbrook (I’m in the minority thinking this is going to be an incredible pairing)
    Horford (My wild card pick because I think Horford is the absolute perfect fit to put Phily over the top)

    What say you?

  • #236743

    andreasantoniostsatsos1988
    Participant
    Rank: All-Star

    Top 5 picks for 9 cat this year? Highest to lowest order. I got

    Harden
    Davis
    Giannis
    Steph
    KAT

    Yours?

  • #236744

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Very solid picks!
    My early top 5 is below, however, I’m still developing all the criteria.

    Giannis
    AD
    KAT
    Harden
    Lebron

  • #236776

    Dan Besbris
    Keymaster
    Rank: Legend

    Haha, oh we’ll have tons of these threads as draft season approaches

  • #236778

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Everybody prepares come draft season, however, CHAMPIONS start preparing now!
    Let’s go!!

  • #236792

    Naster29
    Participant
    Rank: Rookie

    My top 5 for 9 cat would be:

    Giannis
    Steph
    AD
    Harden
    Jokic/Kat

    Interested to see how Westbrook impacts Hardens numbers though.

  • #236793

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Great list! The Harden/Westbrook stats dilemma is going to be the million dollar question going into the season for sure!
    Don’t sell Lebron short! I think he will have an MVP caliber season.

  • #236796

    Naster29
    Participant
    Rank: Rookie

    I do think he will have a great season, I just can never look past his turnovers and free throw %. He could easily be a top 5 player depending on strategy of the team and format. I’ve always had a big focus on efficiency and defence stats in my last 2 seasons.

  • #236798

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Those are very good points. I just think Lebron is going to go all in one last time. We will see.
    With all the player moves it is going to be the most unpredictable fantasy season ever!

  • #236810

    alowry16
    Participant
    Rank: Pro

    My top 5 for 9-cat would be:
    -Harden (Westbrook knocks off some of the shine, but it’s Harden, he’ll play a ton)
    -Davis (load management is a risk, but he’s playing for his first choice team in a while, with the GOAT, he’s always a small injury risk. I have him as #2 just because PF’s are easier to pick up later in the draft than guards)
    -Curry (should have the most usage he’s had in a while)
    -Towns (so safe, so good)
    -Giannis (maybe he improves his perimeter shot and %’s from the line), for this reason he’s 5th.

  • #236817

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Outstanding 5 and hard to argue!
    Don’t count out: Embiid, Westy, Bron Bron!

  • #237001

    lil leftee
    Participant
    Rank: Pro

    I’m liking the discussion on the top 5. Good arguments for many of the rankings here.

    However, after listening to Thursday’s pod where Josh and Neil struggled with the late 1st round-2nd round guys, I think perhaps we could touch up on that more? I think for first round, top 6 in general have a good consensus and are very likely in that tier 1 status.

    Giannis, Steph, AD, Harden, KAT, Jokic for top 6

    Then from here on out this is where I think it starts to get a bit murky.

    Dame, Kawhi, Embiid, LeBron, PG13, Beal, Kyrie, Butler? No idea how to order those guys but I think they’re all generally in tier 2 which makes up to top 14.

    Then..

    Jrue, Drummond, Gobert, Turner, Vooch, Kemba? Again, no idea on order, but some of these guys could be in tier 2, but I guess we can round them out for tier 3 to make up the top 20.

    Then wow.. who’s next? I’m not even sure at this point.

    Doncic? Siakam? Aldridge? Ayton? Westbrook? to round out the top 25?

  • #237019

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Very good discussion points! I agree that the first 6 are pretty similar in all the projections, however, if there were ever a year that different opinions are very relevant it’s this year. The 1/2 dozen of Giannis, Steph, AD, Harden, KAT, Jokic are a slam dunk. That’s where it starts to get extremely interesting because of how dramatically the NBA landscape has changed this off season. Let’s try to get a robust discussion going of how everyone is ranking that all important #7-#20. That’s where a large amount of leagues can be won or lost.

    Please chime in with updated thoughts!

  • #237032

    alowry16
    Participant
    Rank: Pro

    #7-Dame (basically 3 seasons of finishing in the top 6, super durable)
    #8-George (top 3 for a large portion of last year, he shouldn’t see much of a drop in touches, this could also fluctuate depending on how his health is coming out of the offseason)
    #9-Beal (literally the only option)
    #10-Jrue Holiday (this is a bit risky, and I could be talked out of it, but Pelicans are supposed to be upping their pace, everything points toward the 2019-2020 Pels being Jrue’s team)
    #11-Kemba (durability plays a nice factor here, along with playing on a better team, but also a Celtics team that is pretty lacking in depth compared to recent years)
    #12-Embiid (easy argument for him to go higher, but he’ll miss games, which is why I omit him from the top 10)
    #13-Kyrie (maybe he should be a little lower, as he probably won’t play a ton of games, I believe Kyrie is a firm second rounder, but not too sure where to place him)
    #14-Gobert (Solid, beast)
    #15-Drummond (Solid, beast, but hurts in FT%)
    #16-Vucevic (Feels like a really safe mid-late second rounder)
    #17-John Collins (Yes I know, a little risky, but he should go off with Trae Young and play lots of games)
    #18-Trae Young (Ideally I’d like to have both Hawks players in the 3rd round range, but there’s a good chance Collins doesn’t make it past the second, and if I miss out on Kemba/Jrue/Kyrie, Trae Young is my next target for PG)
    #19-Kawhi Leonard (A guy I’d prefer to target in the early 3rd, but I’d heavily consider taking him in the late second if I get a steady first round player like a Harden/Towns/Lillard etc…
    #20-Zion (He probably won’t last this long, and its a bit of a risk too, I could be talked out of this and put Booker or Butler here instead).

    Again, I don’t feel great about a lot of these, but curious on others’ takes.

  • #237035

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Great insight!
    Love the Dame, George & Beal calls
    I think it’s a little aggressive with Kemba & Holiday
    Gobert is a little high but I get it
    I want to see a little more from Trae & Collins before I get crazy with the young Hawks
    Good stuff!!

  • #237097

    lil leftee
    Participant
    Rank: Pro

    I wrote an entire post and on my phone earlier today but lost it like a dummy.

    Anyway.. I actually contemplated further about Jokic being a solid top 6.. and I’m not sure if he is. So here’s my adjusted thoughts:

    #6 – Kawhi – After listening to the Clippers press conference and also his interview with Rachel Nichols, we learned that he’s planning to play the season “fully” and take load management as a game-to-game kind of thing. One thing I think many people underrate is how incredibly valuable Kawhi is even if he only plays 60 games – He finished #18 last season in total value, even with only 60 GP. Because of this, I’m a bit more encouraged to believe that he won’t sit out every B2B and that he’ll eclipse 70+ games, barring any actual injuries. If he could do that, I definitely can see him repeating what he did in 2016-2017 and finish in the top 4 per-game value with only 70-74 games played.

    #7 – Dame – I love Dame, but I don’t believe he has too much upside from here. If you picked him any earlier, I don’t think you would get much value outta him. But out of all the guys from #6-12, I think Dame is the safest choice in terms of GP and solid production.

    #8 – Jokic – He’s never finished above #7 in any kind of 9 cat ranking, per-game or totals. He’s still young and could improve more in PPG and definitely 3pg. He only made 1.0 3pg and shot only 30% from the arc this past year, as opposed to 2017-2018 where he shot 39.6% and 1.5 3pg on roughly the same 3PA. So I think you could get a bit of value getting him here at #8.

    #9 – PG13 – The only concern with him is how many games he’ll miss in the beginning of the season. If he misses a month, then that could bring his GP to 70-72 to start with. Then there could be load management that could lower that number. Otherwise, I think he’s a very good pick at #9 after finishing top 3 in both per-game and totals rankings last season.

    #10 – Beal – He finished #10 in totals, and #14 in per-game last season. I don’t see too much room for improvement for him. Perhaps he can average a bit more PPG, and also get 2-3% upgrade in FT%, but I think this is a good spot for him at #10 going through another John Wall-less season. One slight concern to watch for is his potential to be traded, which will likely lower his value.

    #11 – Butler – Jimmy jumped through a lotta hoops last season. From having to play with KAT and Wiggins, to being traded to a loaded Sixers roster. Now it seems he’s gonna be the lone star in Miami and perhaps that could shoot him up back into the top 10 like he did back in Chicago.

    #12 – Embiid – I can’t drop him any further than this. Perhaps I’d pick him over Butler, but I really do not like his GP outlook. I already thought he would miss a good amount of games, but after listening to Elton Brand talk about how they’ll make sure to manage Embiid during the season to be ready for the playoffs, I’m in more belief that he’s gonna miss more games than originally thought. Perhaps he’ll sit out most B2B games, which will be around 14 games which makes 68 GP total, and that could be enough to return value at #12.

    #13 – LeBron – He’s got a similar description to Embiid, but he also has a major problem with his FT%. Other than that, he’s finished many times in the past in the top 10 and I think he might play with a small chip on his shoulder this year, given all the narratives surrounding him and his team.

    #14 – Jrue – Given how much David Griffin has talked up Jrue and not having to give up the ball too much to AD, I can see Jrue going off this season. He’s never really finished in the top 10, but he’s come close – and if there was ever a year for him to do it, I think this will be the year. I can see a good increase in PPG/3PG, and possibly a slight increase in RPG/APG.

    #15 – Kemba – He’s basically played 80 games for the past 3 seasons and finished #13 in totals last season. I don’t necessarily like this pick but I can’t envision putting anyone else here without feeling any more hesitant about it.

    #16 – Kyrie – A toss up as to what will happen to his GP total. If he does play over 70, he has potential to be top 10. The one big plus for him though is that he’ll have the whole season to himself without KD there.

    #17 – Drummond – Room for improvement isn’t too high, but I think he’s a solid pick here.

    #18 – Gobert – Same deal with Gobert.

    #19 – Draymond Green – My semi-dark horse pick. I don’t believe anyone should pick him at #19, but I think he’ll finish in the top 20 this season. No KD, no Klay, lack of forwards and centers – I just don’t see how he won’t be able to repeat his top 20 finish back in the 15-16 season.

    #20 – Tobias Harris – I think he’ll play a more prominent role on the Sixers, given their lack of shooting in the starting five. His strong durability also shoots him up here and having Embiid sit games bodes well with Tobias.

  • #237104

    Coach
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Great feedback!
    I’m not as high on Butler,Jrue or Draymond.
    I think Lebron is going to have a monster season!
    The awesome thing is that this season is the most unpredictable of any that I can ever remember. Huge shifts of power.
    Looking forward to Bru’s Top 150!!!!!

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