Realistic Regression

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  • #237272

    rparrish
    Participant
    Rank: Pro

    Assuming VUC and Gallo play similar number of games as last year, how much regression would you expect in a 9 CAT plus DD format?

    Trying to figure out potential trade options while the names are still hot and fresh coming off last year.

    Thanks in advance.

  • #237277

    Coach
    Participant
    Rank: All-Star

    I think both guys will have a good season but I have to favor Vuc because of the DD consistency.

  • #237278

    Capt. Caineghis
    Moderator
    Rank: All-Star

    Hey rparrish,

    1) Vooch

    Orlando’s roster this coming season is almost exactly the same as last year, so there aren’t really many question marks in terms of integrating new players. The main question with Vooch all of last season was whether or not he’d be traded and how he might fit on a new team. Well, now that he’s back for in Orlando for 4 years and $100 million, that question has all but disappeared. Vooch finished at #11 last year in 9-cat leagues. Being that he’s only 29 and given the roster hasn’t changed, I think it’s fair to expect about the same numbers from him in this coming year. There may be a slight drop across the board now that he’s not playing for a contract, but I think you can still expect a double-double average from him, given his 20.8/12.0 last year. That said, I think his finish last year was Vooch’s ceiling, so if you can trade him and gain value with your return player, I think I’d do it.

    2) Gallo

    He had an insane year. He posted career highs in points, rebounds, assists, and 3-pointers made. To top it all off, he beat the odds and played 68 games – his best since 2012/13 when he hit 71. All that equated to a #28 finish in 9-cat, and at many times throughout the season he was ranked higher than that. Given the fact that he was drafted in rounds 12 or 13 in a lot of leagues, he was the biggest value play in most leagues. I had him on several championship teams, so I think I’ll probably double-down and roll the dice on him again IF he’s there in the later rounds (but I don’t think he will be). I feel like Yahoo! will probably have his default ranking somewhere around round 5, which is a little rich for my blood.

    It’s possible that he has a big year in OKC, but he is getting up there in age, and it’s possible he gets traded to a team where he’s not one of the go-to guys…however, if he stays in OKC, he could be the primary option on offense and be a solid value again. Like Vooch, I think his finishing rank last season was about as high as he can finish, so if you can flip him for a dependable third/fourth rounder with a bit of upside, I think I’d do that.

  • #237281

    Erik Ong
    Keymaster
    Rank: Legend

    As already stated in the above-mentioned reasons, I’m also not worried about Vucevic. He should flirt with top-15 value while sporting a top-25 floor.

    Gallinari, on the other hand, really outdid himself, pretty much touching his ceiling. His risk has always been associated more with his being injury-prone as opposed to what he’s capable of delivering. He should fall a bit as a veteran on a tanking team. He could drop outside the the top-50 but his high-volume shooting from the line and his threes should keep his value still relatively healthy.

  • #237301

    Dan Besbris
    Keymaster
    Rank: Legend

    Man I love when threads like this one start popping up. It all comes down to ADP! Repeat that over and over and over… I’m betting despite the nice year, Gallo still falls in drafts from his long injury history (as he should). In h2h he’s almost untouchable. Roto a case could be made to scoop him when the price is right.

    Yes, last year was likely a Vooch ceiling.

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