April 18, 2017, 8:54 pm
We have three games on the slate for tonight, and all three games have the potential to be high-scoring and competitive. The main concern tonight is the status of Kevin Durant who is questionable with a calf strain. His status has big implications. Let’s look at five plays tomorrow who you should consider.
Stephen Curry ($8,600)
If Kevin Durant is out, Steph becomes a must play. Even if KD plays, I like Steph tonight. Last game, Steph scored 29 points on 9/19 shooting including 3/8 from three. He also chipped in four points and five boards. This was the 12th game in a row where Steph scored 40+ DraftKings points. He’s been consistently valuable and has a nice matchup opposing Lillard, a below average defender. Also, the Blazers are fast-paced which is a plus.
During the playoffs, Steph should be playing more minutes than he played throughout the regular season. He’s been valuable under average circumstances, and he should continue to be valuable in a positive matchup. If Durant is out, he’s a must. I’ll have Curry in all formats.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300)
Since All-Star Break, CJ McCollum has a 30.9% usage rate with Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. Nurkic has been ruled out for tonight, so another big McCollum game may be on the horizon. Against the Warriors last game, CJ had 56.5 DraftKings points. He shot better (16/28, 4/6 from three) than can be expected tonight, but he is going to be chucking enough shots to be valuable even at a more realistic shooting percentage.
The Blazers will have a tough time winning a game against the Warriors, but if KD is out, tonight could be a big opportunity. Regardless of Durant’s status, the Blazers are going to lean on McCollum and Lillard in the absence of Nurkic. CJ’s predictably high usage tonight raises his floor to where he’d have to shoot terribly to kill your lineups tonight. I’ll have a lot of CJ in cash games.
Evan Turner ($4,800)
ET is another great option tonight from the Blazers. He has scored 20+ DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, and his role without Nurkic increases. He stuffed the stat sheet (relatively speaking) on Sunday with a 12p-10r-4a line in 36 minutes. I am particularly encouraged by that performance because his usage rate was only 11.2% in that game. Lillard and McCollum cannot carry the entire team. As we saw in the second half of Sunday’s game, the Lillard and McCollum magic runs out eventually.
The point is that Turner’s usage should be much closer to about 18% tonight while he continues to assist and rebound. And his high minutes totals should persist throughout the playoffs. I think he’s an incredibly safe option with very high upside.
Paul Millsap ($6,900)
I understand the appeal of Draymond Green tonight (especially if KD is out), but I really like Millsap. He struggled with the physicality of Sunday’s game, but he should be able to bounce back tonight. From a DFS perspective, his scoring was fine, but every other area of his game was lacking. In the four games he played before playoffs started, Paul Millsap averaged a 27.9% usage rate and had a 15% rebound rate.
In Sunday’s game, Millsap had a 20.9% usage rate and rebounded at just a 3.1% rate. I expect a bump in usage, and I can guarantee an increase in rebounding. Millsap voiced his disapproval of the physicality in Sunday’s game, and I anticipate an aggressive, attacking Millsap tonight. He’s very cheap and can be deployed in all formats.
Steven Adams ($4,600)
Many have reacted to the video of Thunder coach Billy Donovan saying “Can’t play Kanter” to his assistant as the Thunder got blown out by the Rockets. I do not know how Donovan will distribute minutes tonight in the frontcourt, but it’s clear that he needs minutes out of Adams. Adams played 28 minutes last game, but it was a blowout. So I think it’s fair to assume Adams will play at least 28 minutes tonight.
Tonight’s game should be incredibly fast (Vegas o/u 223 currently) and there should be a lot of rebounds up for grabs. As long as Adams gets the minutes, he should have a double-double and score close to 30 DraftKings points. The Thunder need a spark and would benefit tremendously from a big Adams game. His price tag is too low for his potential tonight, so I am rostering him in cash games and tournaments.