June 16, 2021, 4:38 pm
Make sure to follow along this U.S. Open with plays from our PGA professional, Joseph Campise (@josephBXTrader). Read below as Joe recaps the Palmetto Championship from last week and as he handicaps the US Open at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. The tournament starts Thursday morning and play goes until Sunday, the 20th.
Palmetto Championship Recap-
Last week was not good. The lack of course history stats and weak field was a bad combo for me. Top 20 with Kizzire and Martin LOST. Whaley v List tourney matchup Lost. Bo Hoag v Hun-AN LOST. Putnam vs Pak WON
The defending champ is Bryson Dechambeau. This is the same course that hosts The Farmers Insurance Open but the US Open will strictly be on the South Course. The fairways will be narrow and the rough will be longer in length.
Rahm 10 -1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
I used the following categories when building my model: Last 24 rounds Total Strokes Gained at Torrey pines, Last 8 SG TOT at Torrey Pines, Driving Distance, Last 24 SG TOT, Last 8 SG TOT, Last 8 Off the Tee SG, and Last 24 Fairways Gained. I used the other categories for a small percentage of my model: proximity and difficult course conditions.
The rankings Last 24 rounds Total Strokes Gained at Torrey Pines:
My model Top 10:
Top 10 Strokes gained at the US Open since 2016:
Koepka – 2 wins and a second place finish
Xander – 4 Top 10s
Oosthuizen – 2 Top 10s
Reed- 3 Top 20 finishes
Matsuyama – 3 Top 20 finishes.
Tommy Fleetwood – MC last year and T65 2 years ago
My leans amongst the favorites is Koepka 16-1
Mid Tier: Shane Lowry 50-1
Long Shots: Sergio Garcia 125 – 1
One key factor I am looking at is driving distance and Strokes Gained Off the Tee. The fairways will be narrow and distance will matter. The US Open wants the course to be difficult if you miss the fairway and cannot drive it long. Bryson dominated the field last year because of his distance even though he had to deal with the long rough.
Vegas -140 v Wyndham Clark-
Vegas ranks 24th in my model and in the last 24 rounds TOT SG at TP GC he is ranked 24th. And in the last 24 he ranks 5th in Driving Distance. SG Off the TEE last 8 rounds Vegas ranks 17th. Clark is ranked 121st in my model. In the last 24 rounds at TP GC, he is ranked 73rd. His driving distance is very respectable at 10th in the last 24 rounds but his SG Off the TEE last 8 rounds he ranks 82nd.
Koepka -115 v Spieth Risk 3 units-
Koepka is a US open stud. It’s hard to look at his SG stats in recent form because he admitted that he does not put in the same effort for the minor tournaments. But I do look at his recent form in US Open recent history and it is dominant. Spieth’s recent form has been good but his course history has not. His SG off the tee, drivin distance, and fairways gained will come into play. SG OTT on difficult courses the last 24 rounds is ranked 109th, driving distance is ranked 50th, and fairways gained is ranked 129th. Koepka is ranked 41st in SG OTT, 29th in driving distance, 119th in fairways gained.
Kokrak -144 v Harris English Risk 3 units
Kokrak is ranked 3rd in my model with an 11th ranking in SG on the TP GC course in his last 8 rounds. His SG TOT in the last 8 rounds is ranked 6th and driving distance is ranked 8th. English is ranked 72nd in my model and his ranking in the last 8 rounds on the TP GC course is ranked 81st. English’s SG TOT in the last 8 rounds is ranked 33rd and his driving distance is ranked 61st.
Koepka +185 2 unit bet
Reed +250 2 unit bet