• At least our big Pistons lean paid off on Thursday, though I got tricked into a Rockets bet that should have never happened. I said that line was too high on the podcast, and I took it, anyway. Nope.

    #Hawks (-4.5) @ #Wizards (232)

    There’s a very real letdown angle if you wanted to fade the Hawks after the tough loss to the Nets, but Washington is such a teamwide funk that I don’t think you can get on this for more than a tiny, tiny bet.

    #Clippers @ #Magic (PK) (212.5)

    Did this really open at Magic -4 and move? Are we thinking Kawhi and PG might be back, or maybe just one and not the other? That’s pretty weird. Leave this one alone until we get any kind of who’s in and who’s out notes.

    #Pacers (-3) @ Hornets (219.5)

    This is a Rematch 2nd, and Pacers beat the Hornets by 10 two days ago. A few interesting tidbits in that game… the Hornets generally played quite poorly and only lost by 10. Can they do enough to erase 7 points of that? I’m inclined to think they can, though Indiana is starting to get a little rhythm going again. Lean to the home dog here.

    #Kings @ #Raptors (-5.5) (229)

    Raptors beat the Kings by 21 in Sacramento on Jan 8th, and we can’t just flat bet revenge games, but this is a pretty juicy spot for a Kings team starting to play a little better and also catching quite a few points against a team that generally isn’t beating anyone by those numbers. Toronto shot 58% in that one and hit 20 threes. There’s simply no way that’s replicated.

    #Bucks (-7) @ #Pelicans (229)

    No thanks. The Pels looked better in their last one, but that was the hapless Wizards. These are the Bucks, who seem generally content just sort of wearing teams out. This line looks good to me.

    #Cavaliers @ Knicks (PK) (206.5)

    Knicks are back home off a 4 game west coast swing that didn’t go particularly well, but I’m generally not concerned with that aspect, since the grand return home is usually unpleasant if a team has been gone longer than a week. This season series is already 1-1, so I don’t think that plays a role. Lean Cavs.

    #Nets (-8) @ #Thunder (231)

    I think you all know my stance on Brooklyn these days. Fade ’em until they play defense, basically any time they’re laying more than 2 possessions. Still, Oklahoma City is coming home off a 5-game relatively successful road trip (2-3 with losses to the Nuggets and Clippers, twice). Competing angles! Argh!

    #Sixers @ #Wolves

    No line, here, as I reckon we’re waiting on D’Angelo Russell… though maybe there’s more at play. I’m looking for a reason to fade the Sixers off the huge Lakers win, but the Wolves are also headed back home off a quick, ugly, two-game sweep at the hands of the Warriors. It’s not a letdown spot but the Wolves are legitimately so bad right now that I can’t bring myself to back them any more. If we’re getting 8+ points, I think I’d consider it.

    #Nuggets (-4.5) @ #Spurs (224)

    The Nuggets are just rolling up teams these days, and are 4-0 on a 5-game road trip. There are 2 ways this can go… do the Nuggets throttle down, happy with the trip, or throttle up hoping for a perfecto on a not-too-easy but not-too-hard voyage across the southern route across the US (PHX-DAL-MIA… back to SAS). This probably tumbles into the “just let it go” category, where angles either cancel each other out or we don’t know enough about the team’s inner monologue to bet it.

    #Mavericks @ #Jazz

    No line in this one either with Donovan Mitchell questionable. If he misses another, I think I might finally consider fading the Jazz. I might consider it either way. They’re dominating teams, but they just beat Dallas by 12 without Mitchell on Wednesday thanks to some otherworldly games from Gobert and Jordan Clarkson. Luka is finally starting to get a little help back, and though they’re not in condition, yet, I think they’ll put up a nice fight.

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