• I had all these notes written out and forgot to drop ’em into an article. So… better late than never, right? Some Saturday betting breakdowns.

    #Warriors @ #Jazz (-7) (224.5)

    I legitimately have no idea how you fade the Jazz right now. They’re crushing teams, and yes, at some point that will mean a team becomes overvalued, but an old betting age suggests that it’s generally better to ride the second wave as opposed to needing to be the smartest person in the room that catches the very first game when things turn. Let’s bet on Utah when the times are right and be ready to switch sides when they go into a slump. For now… we wait.

    #Sixers @ #Pistons

    Detroit was completely asleep in their game against Houston, and you have to wonder if that rough loss in Atlanta had a weird hangover for a Pistons team that had been steadily improving and, frankly, competing better than most folks anticipated. Can they get fired back up for this one? They’ll be catching a bunch of points so that’s helpful, but this being the front end of a Rematch Set, I’m not sure our best move isn’t to just feel it out. I would lean to Detroit with Philly coming in after a grueling Rematch Set with Boston.

    #Heat @ #Nets

    The Nets are not going to be covering a ton of big favorite spreads while not bothering to play defense. I would assume they will lay a decent chunk of points here. Both teams are on back-to-back so that cancels out, and the one thing Brooklyn is going to be dealing with that I’m not sure Harden, in particular, is ready for, is having a target on their back. Durant gets it, but a lack of depth and a lack of defense mean we’re pretty much fading the Nets every time they give up points.

    #Pelicans (-7) @ #Timberwolves (221.5)

    The Pelicans don’t look good at all right now, but teams are having a nice time getting fat on the Wolves. I think if the Pels had taken a game in their Rematch Set in Utah, I might be inclined to fade them, assuming a letdown… but they just need a win. The line is way too high for me to grab the road favorite at that price, but it’s also not high enough for me to want a terrible home dog.

    #Lakers (-9) @ #Bulls (227.5)

    Do the Lakers even know what a letdown is? This would be the moment after they smashed the Bucks in a “you’re not ready for this” marquee TNT game on Thursday. The Bulls, remember, took the Lakers to a tight one in LA a couple weeks back, so you’d think, perhaps, LA remembers and won’t let up, but it’s just really hard for anyone playing in a long season to go at max speed every night. I’m likely to leave this game alone since we’ve seen how mighty the Lakers are on the road, but I’d lean to Chicago if anything.

    #Rockets @ #Mavericks

    It sounds like Houston will be without John Wall and Christian Wood through the weekend, so they’ll be catching a bunch of points here, and that makes this game prohibitively expensive. There’s a theme on today’s card, and that theme is ugly lines. The Mavs are still looking to get some bodies back, but in the meantime Luka and KP are keeping things afloat. The Mavs beat the Rockets earlier this year, but Houston was a pretty different team, then. This has Mavs blowout written all over it but you know me and laying chalk.

    #Nuggets @ #Suns (-2.5) (219)

    The rare back-to-back Rematch Set with no days off in between. There’s just no way the teams have the energy they had in the first. I want to go Suns with the expectation they split the pair but I think I lean to the UNDER assuming both teams are gassed.

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