February 2, 2021, 1:09 am
A frustrating 2-2-1 on Monday for plus-0.3 units, if only because if I had waited an hour to grab a better total line in Phoenix-Dallas, we wouldn’t have pushed and would have been up almost 2 and a half units. Oh well – I think I found something interesting in the NBA trendlines, so maybe we can use this coming up here.
#Grizzlies @ #Pacers (-5.5) (220.5)
I’m not fading the Grizzlies right now. Am I backing them? Unclear. But this year, seemingly more than others, teams playing “fun” tend to win, or at least compete, nightly. Those are your best bets in a difficult season. Find the spots with chemistry, and the Grizz have it right now. Pacers just completely barfed up a win to Philly so they’ll either be mad or dejected, and it’s a huge difference between the two.
#Raptors @ #Magic
Orlando lost Aaron Gordon for 4-6 weeks and I honestly don’t know how many more hits they can take. They just lost to Toronto IN Toronto 2 days ago in the game Gordon suffered his ankle injury. Normally I’d say this is an injured star game where a team goes a little extra hard for 1-2 games until fatigue catches up with them, but I’m frankly not sure the Magic don’t just fold up shop and call it a night.
#Clippers @ #Nets
I hope the Nets are favored, though I somehow doubt it given how poorly they’ve played on defense. I don’t see how either team stops the other, and such is the magic of the Nets. They’re going to score on everyone, but in order to win comfortably they just need to catch a team on an off shooting night. Those haven’t happened this year for the Clippers (aside from that one home game to Dallas). Let’s wait on a line. If it’s narrow, I might go Brooklyn to steal it with a late bucket.
#Pistons @ #Jazz
Detroit had their game in Denver postponed due to an inconclusive COVID test but it sounds like this one is expected to go (per Woj). The Jazz just had their 11-game win streak snapped, and historically teams don’t do well off long winning runs. There’s a weird desire to force a new win streak and hunt for what the formula was when a team should actually just chill out. If not for the weirdness of the Pistons test results I’d like Detroit, but might be safer to just pass.
#Celtics (-3) @ #Warriors 224.5
This should be a good game. Celtics just lost Marcus Smart which is definitely going to cost them in the “who is going to guard Steph” department. But there’s also an Injured Star element, too. Smart is the heart and soul of the Celtics, so I have to believe his boys will want to grab a couple wins to help him feel better about being out. Dubs have played well of late, so catching 3 at home is probably too many on the value side. Issues abound, here.
#Blazers @ #Wizards (-1.5) (240.5)
Ah, sure. The Wizards are a favorite now. The Blazers got roasted in Milwaukee and this game feels like it’s definitely coming down to the final few possessions. The short line is accurate, the giant total is also accurate, and your best money is in-game live betting whenever either team goes up by 6-7 points… fade it.b