September 30, 2021, 4:07 pm
Devin takes a whack at the free play today as we get blessed with some Thursday ACC football. The team has been up and down over the last week for the free play thread and tonight we are taking a crack at a different angle.
The jack of all trades! Handicaps most major sports with an eye on personnel angles, deep dives on stats and lasering in on his favorite conferences and teams that have edges or fade markers! Devin is a high-volume bettor with significant expertise in college football and basketball who knows clearing that 52.4% marker is a long term proposition, and missing out on strong percentage winners is leaving money on the table.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Miami(FL) Hurricanes, 7:30 PM EDT
The Cavaliers and the Hurricanes come into this matchup allowing a ton of first quarter points and they are also turnover prone which means we could see one or both of these offenses be gifted tremendous field position at least once within the opening quarter. With the status of D’Eriq King for Miami in the air, this total is a bit dicey to play for the full game. Virginia in their road games this year have given up 21 1Q points and Virginia is putting up a touchdown per first quarter this year. I fully expect these two teams to be able to move the ball in chunks on the ground. Virginia over the last two weeks has given up nearly 600 yards rushing and the Canes are also struggling to stop the run. Strong armed QB Brennan Armstrong (definite pun intended) has a running element to his game that can help this UVA offense get moving and churn out points. Miami is giving up nearly six points per 1Q so it will be on Virginia to put a TD up if they get the ball first. The first drive ending in a touchdown will be very vital to this play cashing. Right now it is not seeming as though TE Jelani Woods will be going for UVA who left practice Tuesday in a walking boot. This is a blow to the Virginia offense but without him and with how bad their defense has been..I could see this turning into a couple of quick three and outs to give Miami a chance at scoring two touchdowns alone in the opening quarter of play. Lastly, I would like to point out that Virginia is one of the top schools in 1Q time of possession and Miami is almost dead last with 35.15%. It would not shock me to see UVA up after the end of the first quarter. They are getting stud linebacker Hunter Stewart back tonight after he was questionable leading up to the game.
Bet- 1.15 units to win 1 unit on over the total(1Q) of 13.5