July 13, 2021, 2:16 pm
Recap of last week at The John Deere (+4.75 units). Winners with Vegas over Poston, Henley, and Lebioda Top 20.
I lost the Top 20 bets with Harman and Martin.
First TEE time at 1:35am Eastern
The first Open at this course since 2011. Conditions can be windy but can change quickly.
I was concerned my usual method of handicapping would not be sufficient because the Euro player’s Strokes Gained Stats are not included. But all of the favorites on the betting board have enough Strokes Gained Stats on the PGA Tour.
Jon Rahm +900
Brooks Koepka +1600
Xander Schauffele +1800
Recent form at The Open Tournament
Top 10 using Stokes Gained Total from 2015-2019:
Jordan Speith 50.81 Won in 2017, T9 in 2018, T20 in 2019
Henrik Stenson 49.81 Won in 2016, T20 on 2019
Zach Johnson 35.51 Withdrawn from tournament
Justin Rose 34.81 T20 2019, T2 2018
Rory McIlory 34.76 MC in 2019, Three Top 5s 2016-2018
Tony Finau 34.06 3rd in 2019, T9 in 2018
Jason Day 31.51 MC in 2019, T17 in 2018
Brooks Koepka 31.29 Three Top Tens since 2015
Francesco Molinari 28.65 Won in 2018, T11 2019
Phil Mickelson 27.35 MC in 2019 & 2017 2nd in 2016
Top Recent Form looking at SG Total at the last 5 PGA Events
My Model: I used the stats from the last 36 rounds and the last 8 rounds. As always I used Total Strokes Gained and Approach. Also, I looked at proximity from 75 – 150 yards out, difficult scoring conditions, and windy conditions.
The Top 10 in my model:
Top 20 Collin Morikawa +165
This is Morikawa’s first Open Tournament and that explains the great price given his great recent form. Morikawa stats shows he has the skill set to do well at this course. His Strokes Gained Approach stats are ranked first in the last 36 and 8 rounds. His Strokes Gained stats in difficult course conditions in the last 8 rounds is ranked first and ranked second in the last 36 rounds.