September 20, 2018, 5:45 am
First off, thank you.
Thank you for all of your support of Hoop Ball as we continue to grow the platform behind the many efforts of all the great contributors we have.
I can’t thank them enough for putting their heart and soul into a project that’s trying to be something more than what is currently being given to the basketball consuming whatever you want to call us.
I have to pinch myself every time I see somebody’s great idea in motion, or the traffic reports showing triple the growth year-over-year, or our growing community start to multiply and branch out — we’re definitely in the ‘need to wear name tags’ stage of our business plan and it’s just a lot of fun.
But you guys, the readers and supporters and fellow degenerates, you guys power all of it and I wouldn’t feel right without really hammering it home how much we appreciate you.
And would you like to know another thing I appreciate?
That’s why I spend 4-8 hours per day for 3-4 months cranking on whatever improvement plan I’ve derived from the previous season.
I want to spin the chess board as many times as I can before it becomes too inefficient, and then push through the decision-making process for each of these handcrafted projections that ultimately form the basis of the Bruski 150.
Putting this list out each and every season — staying at the top of the prognosticator ranks each and every year — and competing in high stakes competitions with this list while my opposition buys this list and uses it against me … it’s a grind.
I’m happy when one of my competitors wins with this list, including last year’s winners of the Super and Main Events at the NFBKC (totaling $30,000 in prize winnings), but don’t get me wrong — I want to keep winning.
My (literal) bet is that I can both help you win and also continue to bring home the bacon.
This year is a bit of a public year in that there wasn’t as much player movement so I think there will be more easy calls on the board.
Still, there are so many values to be had and the hope will be that the market can’t (or won’t) keep up. While we’re growing we’re still a small site so it’s basically the ringers and industry folks that will sense the shifts and then the ADPs will follow.
As we get further and further into draft season I’ll get more aggressive so you’ll definitely want to keep checking back for the latest updates.
Also, read the ground rules so you know how to best use this list.
Lastly, enjoy this time of year. Remember to savor the excitement of the changing seasons, the renewed hopes and expectations — the thrill of the live draft — and all of the great things fantasy hoops does to bring people together.
And get ready to plunder.
The ground rules….
♦ This is a fearless list. I’m not trying to play it safe. I’m not trying to stay in the friendly confines of industry consensus. I’ll probably have a high profile miss. But as regular readers know, we’re going to hit far more than we miss. And we’re going to hit real big on a bunch of them. This list will guide how much you should pay, who you should reach for and who you should run the other direction from.
♦ This is a Roto list. It’s not a head-to-head list or a points league list. It’s not a list to account for playoff formats. Frankly I’d prefer it to not even include 9-cat rankings because it’s terrible to penalize better players for handling the ball a lot. But because we all play 9-cat I include my ranks for 9-cat and the associated Average Draft Positions (ADP), as well. While I’m banging on 9-cat leagues I’ll bang on playoff leagues, too. Why go through the nightly grind of the NBA season to have the ever-growing problem of shutdowns determine your league.
♦ You can now sort the list. The ADP losses and gains don’t relate well for players toward the beginning and end of the draft as they do for players in the top 30-100, nor does it correlate well to actual fantasy value being returned. But it does give you a quick way to know how early or late a player is going. We’ll always be looking at new features like this as we grow but we will also want to maintain the simplicity of this list.
♦ Though this is a top-150 list (including 50 more honorable mentions at the end), each player in the top 350 or so has been hand-projected for each category. Those projections have been scrutinized in every context that might affect the final outcome. A proprietary blend of methodologies – both quantitative and qualitative – is used to weave the resulting numbers into these rankings.
♦ This is a year-long list. By ranking a player (for example) No. 33, I am predicting they will finish as the 33rd ranked player at the end of the year, cumulatively. In that respect, it is vital owners know that I am not intending for them to draft players in this order. You may also consider a player’s early or late season trajectory. A young player that profiles better at the end of the year will probably play under that rank to start and over that rank to finish.
♦ Again, owners need to consider their specific marketplace and determine where they would like to draft players based on ADP, strength of their league and the like. Just because I rank a guy way ahead of his ADP, or if the ADP doesn’t exist because the guy isn’t getting drafted enough – it doesn’t mean you grab him where I rank him.
♦ ADPs are pulled from ESPN for 8-cat and Yahoo for 9-cat and are updated along with most of the other updates. Late September ADP data can be pretty rough, just keep that in mind.
♦ These are pure values that don’t account for any punting or specialized team builds you might want to look at. If you want to adjust for punting or a specific type of team build you’ll need to do that on your own. For what it’s worth I seek balance when building a team whether it’s Roto or H2H.
♦ The only place on this list where I might eschew prediction end-of-season is toward the bottom of the 150. I do build in some logic for flier picks and upside guys over the plodders who are going to get three yards and a cloud of dust for 76 games.
So without further ado, I give you the Bruski 150:
UPDATED THROUGH ITEMS POSTED: October 15, 2:31 p.m. ET.