The 2018 Bruski 150

  • First off, thank you.

    Thank you for all of your support of Hoop Ball as we continue to grow the platform behind the many efforts of all the great contributors we have.

    I can’t thank them enough for putting their heart and soul into a project that’s trying to be something more than what is currently being given to the basketball consuming whatever you want to call us.

    I have to pinch myself every time I see somebody’s great idea in motion, or the traffic reports showing triple the growth year-over-year, or our growing community start to multiply and branch out — we’re definitely in the ‘need to wear name tags’ stage of our business plan and it’s just a lot of fun.

    But you guys, the readers and supporters and fellow degenerates, you guys power all of it and I wouldn’t feel right without really hammering it home how much we appreciate you.

    And would you like to know another thing I appreciate?

    <lowers shades>

    Winning.

    That’s why I spend 4-8 hours per day for 3-4 months cranking on whatever improvement plan I’ve derived from the previous season.

    I want to spin the chess board as many times as I can before it becomes too inefficient, and then push through the decision-making process for each of these handcrafted projections that ultimately form the basis of the Bruski 150.

    Putting this list out each and every season — staying at the top of the prognosticator ranks each and every year — and competing in high stakes competitions with this list while my opposition buys this list and uses it against me … it’s a grind.

    I’m happy when one of my competitors wins with this list, including last year’s winners of the Super and Main Events at the NFBKC (totaling $30,000 in prize winnings), but don’t get me wrong — I want to keep winning.

    My (literal) bet is that I can both help you win and also continue to bring home the bacon.

    This year is a bit of a public year in that there wasn’t as much player movement so I think there will be more easy calls on the board.

    Still, there are so many values to be had and the hope will be that the market can’t (or won’t) keep up.  While we’re growing we’re still a small site so it’s basically the ringers and industry folks that will sense the shifts and then the ADPs will follow.

    As we get further and further into draft season I’ll get more aggressive so you’ll definitely want to keep checking back for the latest updates.

    Also, read the ground rules so you know how to best use this list.

    Lastly, enjoy this time of year.  Remember to savor the excitement of the changing seasons, the renewed hopes and expectations — the thrill of the live draft — and all of the great things fantasy hoops does to bring people together.

    And get ready to plunder.

    The ground rules….

    ♦ This is a fearless list. I’m not trying to play it safe. I’m not trying to stay in the friendly confines of industry consensus. I’ll probably have a high profile miss. But as regular readers know, we’re going to hit far more than we miss. And we’re going to hit real big on a bunch of them. This list will guide how much you should pay, who you should reach for and who you should run the other direction from.

    ♦ This is a Roto list. It’s not a head-to-head list or a points league list. It’s not a list to account for playoff formats. Frankly I’d prefer it to not even include 9-cat rankings because it’s terrible to penalize better players for handling the ball a lot. But because we all play 9-cat I include my ranks for 9-cat and the associated Average Draft Positions (ADP), as well. While I’m banging on 9-cat leagues I’ll bang on playoff leagues, too. Why go through the nightly grind of the NBA season to have the ever-growing problem of shutdowns determine your league.

    ♦ You can now sort the list. The ADP losses and gains don’t relate well for players toward the beginning and end of the draft as they do for players in the top 30-100, nor does it correlate well to actual fantasy value being returned.  But it does give you a quick way to know how early or late a player is going.  We’ll always be looking at new features like this as we grow but we will also want to maintain the simplicity of this list.

    ♦ Though this is a top-150 list (including 50 more honorable mentions at the end), each player in the top 350 or so has been hand-projected for each category. Those projections have been scrutinized in every context that might affect the final outcome. A proprietary blend of methodologies – both quantitative and qualitative – is used to weave the resulting numbers into these rankings.

    ♦ This is a year-long list. By ranking a player (for example) No. 33, I am predicting they will finish as the 33rd ranked player at the end of the year, cumulatively. In that respect, it is vital owners know that I am not intending for them to draft players in this order.  You may also consider a player’s early or late season trajectory.  A young player that profiles better at the end of the year will probably play under that rank to start and over that rank to finish.

    ♦ Again, owners need to consider their specific marketplace and determine where they would like to draft players based on ADP, strength of their league and the like. Just because I rank a guy way ahead of his ADP, or if the ADP doesn’t exist because the guy isn’t getting drafted enough – it doesn’t mean you grab him where I rank him.

    ♦ ADPs are pulled from ESPN for 8-cat and Yahoo for 9-cat and are updated along with most of the other updates.  Late September ADP data can be pretty rough, just keep that in mind.

    ♦ These are pure values that don’t account for any punting or specialized team builds you might want to look at. If you want to adjust for punting or a specific type of team build you’ll need to do that on your own. For what it’s worth I seek balance when building a team whether it’s Roto or H2H.

    ♦ The only place on this list where I might eschew prediction end-of-season is toward the bottom of the 150. I do build in some logic for flier picks and upside guys over the plodders who are going to get three yards and a cloud of dust for 76 games.

    So without further ado, I give you the Bruski 150:

    UPDATED THROUGH ITEMS POSTED: October 15, 2:31 p.m. ET.

    8-B150 ADP +/- Name Notes 9-B150 ADP +/-
    1 2.3 1.3 James Harden Is there a such thing as a boring No. 1 8-cat pick? 4 1.6 -2.4
    2 2.0 0.0 Anthony Davis Upside beyond this but there's a price to pay for risk, possible drama 1 2.2 1.2
    3 7.3 4.3 Stephen Curry Sliding in drafts after sliding for two years. Time for a regression. 3 5.2 2.2
    4 7.3 3.3 Karl-Anthony Towns Drama in Minnesota pending this is where he goes 2 5.9 3.9
    5 6.0 1.0 Kevin Durant Only concern is chemistry; KD didn't have great playoffs despite MVP 5 5.7 0.7
    6 2.7 -3.3 Giannis Antetokounmpo Would be nice to see another gear, especially on defensive side 7 3.6 -3.4
    7 11.7 4.7 Kawhi Leonard Rating him as mostly the same guy; year off in athletic prime a mess 6 12.5 6.5
    8 3.0 -5.0 LeBron James When LeBron wants to he can still climb (see last season) 9 5.0 -4.0
    9 17.0 8.0 Victor Oladipo Emerging superstar exploring his ceiling still 10 12.4 2.4
    10 10.0 0.0 Damian Lillard You worry about things starting to break down/slow down for Dame. 8 10.1 2.1
    11 7.0 -4.0 Russell Westbrook The knee is probably okay, but game built on explosion a concern 16 9.1 -6.9
    12 18.0 6.0 Paul George Some upside beyond this if RW declines and PG needs to step up 12 13.5 1.5
    13 8.3 -4.7 Nikola Jokic DEN has capable and emerging players, maybe full season of Millsap 11 9.0 -2.0
    14 15.7 1.7 Joel Embiid For Embiid it's all about the blocks and if he regains his nastiness 18 16.8 -1.2
    15 25.3 10.3 Jrue Holiday Emerging into one of the league's top guards 13 23.1 10.1
    16 19.0 3.0 Kyrie Irving If anything, last season's caution with injuries helped keep miles off. 15 17.3 2.3
    17 33.7 16.7 Khris Middleton Plenty in the tank, consistent and still scratching some upside 17 29.2 12.2
    18 22.7 4.7 Chris Paul The upside isn't quite there and HOU will throttle back again this year 14 17.3 3.3
    19 23.0 4.0 Devin Booker Hand injury aside, he has been given the keys to the franchise 26 25.6 -0.4
    20 13.0 -7.0 Ben Simmons Lotsa variance in outcomes not just for him, but Sixers as a whole 36 15.6 -20.4
    21 16.0 -5.0 John Wall A lot to prove this year as an elite player; lotsa question marks in WAS 45 23.7 -21.3
    22 21.0 -1.0 Kemba Walker I worry a bit about his knee but production-wise he's safe as it gets 19 16.2 -2.8
    23 21.3 -1.7 Donovan Mitchell Future MVP candidate can climb higher; but this includes improvement 37 17.5 -19.5
    24 20.0 -4.0 Jimmy Butler Drama in Minnesota pending this is where he goes 20 23.7 3.7
    25 28.3 3.3 Draymond Green He needs to re-energize his steals rate and keep improving efficiency 32 29.9 -2.1
    26 46.0 20.0 Eric Bledsoe You might not like his game but he established his value last season 33 43.2 10.2
    27 48.7 21.7 Deandre Ayton Ayton looks more than competent to cash in on the PHO situation. 23 64.6 41.6
    28 24.0 -4.0 DeMar DeRozan Similar fit as Kawhi had in SA, he'll run iso offense similarly 24 32.2 8.2
    29 18.7 -10.3 Kyle Lowry Fit next to Kawhi and Toronto depth two reasons to fade him a bit 35 26.1 -8.9
    30 36.0 6.0 Marc Gasol Grinded thru pointless season - a good sign he might do it again 31 37.0 6.0
    31 18.0 -13.0 Andre Drummond Fit next to Blake, FT questions of course. Last year he crushed 27 24.9 -2.1
    32 41.0 9.0 Clint Capela He'll improve again this year but the market has caught up 22 36.0 14.0
    33 81.3 48.3 Enes Kanter The Knicks need him and he's pretty easy to peg nowadays 28 81.2 53.2
    34 27.3 -6.7 Kevin Love Not quite Minnesota Love, but volume isn't going to be a problem 25 31.6 6.6
    35 26.0 -9.0 Bradley Beal More Wall this season will etch away at his value 41 22.2 -18.8
    36 32.0 -4.0 Rudy Gobert I worry about his explosion and declines in areas he's valuable 29 26.5 -2.5
    37 116.0 79.0 Taurean Prince The B150 said 41 last season and he finished 45. Drops microphone 53 63.0 10.0
    38 74.0 36.0 Gary Harris Can he be underrated again this year? Probably 30 47.9 17.9
    39 69.0 30.0 Jamal Murray Competition for touches will keep him efficient 55 42.8 -12.2
    40 58.3 18.3 Otto Porter Game doesn't rely on excess touches; I'm still worried about the hip 21 34.8 13.8
    41 85.3 44.3 Kris Dunn Defensive production is most of what we care about here 63 86.0 23.0
    42 56.0 14.0 John Collins How high can he go? So much (deserved) hype, profit margins be damned 43 50.8 7.8
    43 36.7 -6.3 Klay Thompson If he can get back to the foul line there's upside beyond this 40 28.5 -11.5
    44 45.3 1.3 Mike Conley One had to suspect that MEM would use kid gloves last season 52 48.9 -3.1
    45 32.0 -13.0 C.J. McCollum The super tight shooting in his breakout year appears to be outlier 39 30.8 -8.2
    46 63.0 17.0 Myles Turner We'll be watching closely to see if he's not fat this season 34 44.0 10.0
    47 88.3 41.3 Nikola Mirotic Can go higher than this; just needs to stay healthy and it's his 38 70.0 32.0
    48 78.3 30.3 Jonas Valanciunas I'm not sensing massive breakout but he can plod his way to this 42 76.0 34.0
    49 53.3 4.3 Nikola Vucevic A trade could hurt him but he's also fairly consistent 50 58.0 8.0
    50 63.3 13.3 Hassan Whiteside So many question marks; he could drift lower than this 44 72.8 28.8
    51 66.3 15.3 Will Barton Paid to be what he was last season 51 62.5 11.5
    52 99.0 47.0 Joe Ingles B150 had Joe at 60 last year. Everybody else had him at 120. 56 60.4 4.4
    53 48.0 -5.0 Al Horford Loaded roster isn't helping him in the upside department 46 44.3 -1.7
    54 71.0 17.0 Jeff Teague Teague/Thibs might be worth watching after Teague spoke up last year 64 64.9 0.9
    55 93.0 38.0 Robert Covington As official founders of Covington's bandwagon, we just wanted to brag a bit 49 56.2 7.2
    56 50.0 -6.0 Tobias Harris A trendy name and a fairly safe mid-round play; profit margin issues 47 37.4 -9.6
    57 30.0 -27.0 LaMarcus Aldridge One of the luckiest picks of last season. An entire season as the guy 48 35.4 -12.6
    58 80.3 22.3 Dario Saric Does a lot for the Sixers and might finally get recognized this year 60 79.8 19.8
    59 124.0 65.0 Jeremy Lamb An HB favorite; can go higher than this 57 145.4 88.4
    60 99.0 39.0 Josh Richardson Great year and he handled it last year, but Miami is crowded again 54 64.1 10.1
    61 63.0 2.0 Zach LaVine He wants to be the No. 1 and will probably be healthy enough for it 71 65.8 -5.2
    62 137.7 75.7 Kent Bazemore One of the better players on a really bad team. 85 128.2 43.2
    63 35.3 -27.7 Blake Griffin This is high and I might bring it back if I don't see a focus on efficiency 83 42.4 -40.6
    64 48.3 -15.7 Lou Williams We're not gettting full Lou Williams this season (I don't think) 75 57.4 -17.6
    65 40.7 -24.3 Jayson Tatum His ADP is high for the wrong reasons; but stat set supports value 58 44.3 -13.7
    66 104.0 38.0 Kyle Anderson Was great last year but new fit means some variance potential 61 91.3 30.3
    67 136.7 69.7 Jonathan Isaac Has untold fantasy upside. 65 104.4 39.4
    68 55.0 -13.0 Ricky Rubio A safer mid-round PG that will produce if healthy 114 60.4 -53.6
    69 51.0 -18.0 Aaron Gordon Moving away from the hoop not good for Gordon 68 42.8 -25.2
    70 80.0 10.0 Steven Adams You worry about the physical pounding he's taken but this is safe 82 71.8 -10.2
    71 164.3 93.3 Bobby Portis Flaws in the stat set but he's going to plod his way to value 69 140.2 71.2
    72 130.0 58.0 Buddy Hield The Kings can screw this up any number of ways; great shooting stats 59 92.8 33.8
    73 53.7 -19.3 Paul Millsap A lot of reasons to fade Millsap this season (age/miles/production) 89 61.1 -27.9
    74 81.7 7.7 Elfrid Payton Can be better than this but that presumes he can earn starter's mins 94 117.2 23.2
    75 96.7 21.7 Tyreke Evans Finally found a shot. Lower minutes will help keep him upright 84 100.0 16.0
    76 102.7 26.7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Injuries the only concern; he has taken a beating at PF 73 123.7 50.7
    77 92.0 15.0 Jarrett Allen The preseason hype has created a risk/profit margin situation 62 58.1 -3.9
    78 132.0 54.0 Jaren Jackson Has some stat set issues but has a nice floor for a rookie 90 100.6 10.6
    79 146.7 67.7 Kelly Olynyk B150 had him at 83 last year, other sites 140, finished at 63 77 127.8 50.8
    80 147.7 67.7 Spencer Dinwiddie He's better than DAR but muddy depth chart could hold him back 76 139.7 63.7
    81 58.7 -22.3 Andrew Wiggins Drama in Minnesota pending this is where he goes 91 81.3 -9.7
    82 98.0 16.0 Darren Collison It's not about volume with Collison, who could cruise again this year 66 80.0 14.0
    83 82.3 -0.7 Tim Hardaway Jr. Injury concerns are fair; but stat set issues hold him back a bit anyway 74 77.1 3.1
    84 61.7 -22.3 Harrison Barnes Probably the most boring fantasy play in the game today 67 72.6 5.6
    85 46.3 -38.7 DeAndre Jordan Block rate showed an overweight player lacking explosion last year 80 52.0 -28.0
    86 41.3 -44.7 Gordon Hayward The depth in Boston means Hayward won't be on our squads 70 51.1 -18.9
    87 63.3 -23.7 Dennis Smith Jr. Percentages are the issue, as well as his knee, but so much talent 137 78.0 -59.0
    88 146.5 58.5 Mario Hezonja Should get cut loose in NY; question is what he does with it 79 128.6 49.6
    89 82.0 -7.0 Jusuf Nurkic Nurk will get a fair shot at plodding his way to this value. 110 89.8 -20.2
    90 126.3 36.3 Dennis Schroder Needs a serious RW injury to be anything more than this 120 120.2 0.2
    91 66.7 -24.3 Luka Doncic I want to rate him higher but stat set is an issue in places 138 88.0 -50.0
    92 131.0 39.0 Malcolm Brogdon Last year's injury will keep his price low; solid value 86 121.4 35.4
    93 194.0 101.0 Delon Wright Should be available on the cheap and will have good floor/upside combo 81 141.9 60.9
    94 142.7 48.7 Jeremy Lin If the Hawks manage his minutes he can bring back late round value 129 140.3 11.3
    95 55.3 -39.7 Goran Dragic Heat depth and general deterioration in his stat set are the issues 123 64.0 -59.0
    96 77.0 -19.0 Nicolas Batum New coach might unlock some things, but it hasn't been good for Batum 119 81.2 -37.8
    97 100.7 3.7 Serge Ibaka This is an easy decline to project 72 83.4 11.4
    98 52.7 -45.3 Julius Randle Great fit for him in New Orleans; but probably going to be overdrafted 154 71.3 -82.7
    99 115.3 16.3 Jordan Bell Role might fluctuate but he was built for fantasy leagues 93 116.3 23.3
    100 140.3 40.3 Trevor Ariza The Suns probably didn't fork over the cash to have him sit 78 115.9 37.9
    101 70.0 -31.0 Lonzo Ball Lonzo's value getting attacked by a who's who of things (LBJ/Rondo) 112 64.9 -47.1
    102 96.7 -5.3 DeMarcus Cousins Playoff owners only here. He's going to burn a hole in your roster 105 102.2 -2.8
    103 179.0 76.0 Nerlens Noel We'll see in the preseason if he's being used or not. 87 139.8 52.8
    104 91.3 -12.7 Evan Fournier Safe role, pretty predictable output 121 85.5 -35.5
    105 98.7 -6.3 De'Aaron Fox The Kings can screw this up any number of ways; lotsa talent 158 127.0 -31.0
    106 164.0 58.0 Fred VanVleet Better suited for deeper leagues where his value can be useful 108 116.6 8.6
    107 107.7 0.7 James Johnson Groin injury went undetected last season; let's see if he's healthy 101 114.2 13.2
    108 78.3 -29.7 Jabari Parker Has shown flashes of upside but this is as high as I can go 115 106.1 -8.9
    109 73.7 -35.3 D'Angelo Russell I just don't think he's a good basketball player. It all filters from there 178 87.2 -90.8
    110 200.0 90.0 Pascal Siakam Could be the key to the Toronto frontcourt defense 88 147.5 59.5
    111 170.0 59.0 Jakob Poeltl Has some nice stat set features; could go higher with injury help 97 134.0 37.0
    112 173.5 61.5 Patrick Beverley In trade rumors but otherwise he's a nice PG to target late 104 144.7 40.7
    113 111.0 -2.0 J.J. Redick No real competition he just needs to stay healthy 99 87.0 -12.0
    114 127.7 13.7 Larry Nance Jr. Better in 9-cat, where he is the proverbial top-100 play. 96 99.9 3.9
    115 139.5 24.5 Dewayne Dedmon Don't get caught up in the 3s, but he's a nice late round center 98 106.4 8.4
    116 54.7 -61.3 Lauri Markkanen You wonder about a possible leap but this is a healthy enough rank 92 51.9 -40.1
    117 104.0 -13.0 Brook Lopez Has some upside if he can somehow luck into bigger minutes 107 82.5 -24.5
    118 129.7 11.7 Rudy Gay SA will get everything they can out of him but obvious risks loom 124 140.6 16.6
    119 137.0 18.0 Bogdan Bogdanovic Knee issues need to be watched. Also: Kangz 126 117.9 -8.1
    120 121.0 1.0 Thaddeus Young Thad has a lot of mileage and is a known commodity 95 104.5 9.5
    121 76.3 -44.7 Kyle Kuzma Barring some trades he's going to get squeezed from all angles 106 74.5 -31.5
    122 158.0 36.0 Markieff Morris Late round plodder with a tiny bit of upside if he's more healthy 130 140.1 10.1
    123 99.0 -24.0 Eric Gordon Fair worries about injury risk but HOU needs his production this year 140 101.0 -39.0
    124 54.3 -69.7 Dwight Howard Quietly productive the last few seasons. Is what he is. 172 60.3 -111.7
    125 200.0 75.0 Trey Lyles Still has those same stat set flaws from his previous overhyped season 102 139.5 37.5
    126 73.3 -52.7 Trae Young It could be very, very ugly but ATL is paper thin and spent to get him 194 104.6 -89.4
    127 174.0 47.0 Al-Farouq Aminu No reason to think Aminu slides much from his normal production 103 145.8 42.8
    128 155.0 27.0 Domantas Sabonis Late round plodder for deep leagues 157 134.7 -22.3
    129 143.5 14.5 Caris LeVert Should improve this season but BKY spreads it around 159 143.1 -15.9
    130 169.0 39.0 Montrezl Harrell It would be a whole lot cooler if he was projected to have more value 111 141.8 30.8
    131 130.0 -1.0 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Had a nice year but Lakers glut of guards (and LBJ) not helping 116 98.0 -18.0
    132 93.7 -38.3 Jaylen Brown Betting on another jump to combat efficiency, Boston depth 136 105.1 -30.9
    133 96.0 -37.0 Rodney Hood Not built for fantasy leagues but will get chance to score in CLE 146 141.6 -4.4
    134 162.3 28.3 George Hill Not sure CLE will run the precision offense he needs to have value 139 139.2 0.2
    135 136.7 1.7 Avery Bradley Could get a bump if the Clippers trade Patrick Beverley 152 132.2 -19.8
    136 138.0 2.0 Danilo Gallinari Might show out early to establish role; all sorts of risks to value 122 139.1 17.1
    137 174.7 37.7 Danny Green Some role variance could be in store but in the end he's Danny Green 113 138.0 25.0
    138 111.7 -26.3 T.J. Warren Should be a bumpy season and a trade isn't favored to help 117 132.6 15.6
    139 141.7 2.7 Allen Crabbe More of the same expected from Crabbe this season 118 104.8 -13.2
    140 178.0 38.0 E'Twaun Moore Hard to bet on Moore having as many minutes after 82-game season 125 145.4 20.4
    141 158.5 17.5 Marvin Williams Extremely predictable numbers 100 134.5 34.5
    142 125.7 -16.3 Isaiah Thomas If healthy, he can get it done in few minutes. DEN has plenty of offense 164 120.8 -43.2
    143 130.0 -13.0 Wesley Matthews He'll do his thing but it's about DSJ and Doncic this year in DAL 131 147.5 16.5
    144 104.0 -40.0 Willie Cauley-Stein As WCS focuses more on offense, his value continues to drop 134 115.6 -18.4
    145 90.0 -55.0 Wendell Carter I want to go higher but a slow start will set him back 148 93.8 -54.2
    146 156.5 10.5 Bojan Bogdanovic Late round plodder for deep leagues 133 137.4 4.4
    147 71.3 -75.7 Brandon Ingram Percentage issues and role issues create this type of a ranking 177 90.7 -86.3
    148 127.0 -21.0 Markelle Fultz Too many issues to get excited about any upside 191 124.7 -66.3
    149 164.0 15.0 Kelly Oubre Jr. Some upside beyond this if any of the core guys gets seriously hurt 128 143.6 15.6
    150 135.7 -14.3 Marcus Smart Too crowded in Boston for Smart to have any real value 189 129.9 -59.1
    151 114.0 -37.0 Dwight Powell Powell flashes potential but DeAndre's arrival cools already shaky value 109 200.0 91.0
    152 157.3 5.3 Pau Gasol Last year's durability and production hard to bet on again 147 134.8 -12.2
    153 182.5 29.5 Alex Len Theoretically he could get let loose but betting on it is rough 145 141.5 -3.5
    154 138.7 -15.3 JaVale McGee We need to watch his minutes, but maybe there is an increase there 149 114.5 -34.5
    155 118.7 -36.3 Taj Gibson This feels low (Thibs loves him) but Minny is a mess. 132 125.7 -6.3
    156 124.0 -32.0 Justin Holiday Won't have the role he ended up having last year 142 124.6 -17.4
    157 200.0 43.0 Tyus Jones Has some upside if Butler deal frees him up. 141 200.0 59.0
    158 114.0 -44.0 Reggie Jackson Owners can do better than this; don't get caught up in starting job 195 133.3 -61.7
    159 175.0 16.0 Joe Harris Great player, smart signing, still too crowded in BKY for fantasy value 168 139.7 -28.3
    160 157.7 -2.3 DeMarre Carroll Ran hot early on last year but BKY will be more crowded this year 143 141.0 -2.0
    161 115.7 -45.3 Jordan Clarkson Sure, maybe CLE needs him more, but we're not ranking him that way 192 140.4 -51.6
    162 122.0 -40.0 D.J. Augustin Will have bursts of standard league value 160 142.8 -17.2
    163 144.3 -18.7 Trey Burke Has Scott Perry support. But he's not gonna have last year's numbers 165 142.5 -22.5
    164 107.3 -56.7 Kristaps Porzingis Playoff owners only here. He's going to burn a hole in your roster 135 117.8 -17.2
    165 161.3 -3.7 Josh Hart He's way better than this rank entails. Hopefully he gets a shot. 153 133.6 -19.4
    166 200.0 34.0 Marquese Chriss Yes, there's upside as 'Different Capela.' Can't bet on it right now though 155 140.7 -14.3
    167 170.0 3.0 Jonathon Simmons Holes in his stat set and ORL got a bit deeper this year 206 143.4 -62.6
    168 200.0 32.0 Richaun Holmes Chriss trade helped move a similar player. Phoenix can easily screw this up 150 200.0 50.0
    169 180.0 11.0 Courtney Lee Unless he's traded he's a strong bet to finish here 127 140.3 13.3
    170 192.5 22.5 JaMychal Green Rough year last year and a rookie right on his tail. Injury issues? 167 141.1 -25.9
    171 115.7 -55.3 Derrick Favors He could be better than this but I'm still betting against his body 144 133.4 -10.6
    172 137.3 -34.7 Marcin Gortat Change of scenary can't turn back time 170 132.7 -37.3
    173 189.0 16.0 Ersan Ilyasova Deep league plodder 173 139.8 -33.2
    174 97.0 -77.0 Carmelo Anthony Don't get caught up in the Rockets boost line of thinking 169 102.1 -66.9
    175 200.0 25.0 T.J. McConnell Exceeding ADP expectations again, probably 196 200.0 4.0
    176 200.0 24.0 Zach Collins I want to have him higher but stat set issues weigh him down 198 200.0 2.0
    177 158.0 -19.0 Miles Bridges Will have trouble producing but looks great as a rook. 199 200.0 1.0
    178 124.5 -53.5 Jerami Grant This might be his best season, but still hard to get behind 156 131.7 -24.3
    179 112.0 -67.0 Terry Rozier He needs a trade to hit the standard league radar 151 126.1 -24.9
    180 140.0 -40.0 Ish Smith This is where he lands in his typical Pistons role 175 200.0 25.0
    181 200.0 19.0 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander I will move him up as Beverley trade rumors heat up 193 142.8 -50.2
    182 200.0 18.0 Moe Harkless Might be better than this but last year's struggles were instructive 163 200.0 37.0
    183 115.0 -68.0 Josh Jackson Percentages, Percentages, Percentages (said like Steve Ballmer) 217 132.7 -84.3
    184 147.0 -37.0 P.J. Tucker Deep league plodder 174 135.8 -38.2
    185 156.7 -28.3 Tyler Johnson Same story for Johnson - good player but too many bodies in MIA 166 137.6 -28.4
    186 109.3 -76.7 Kevin Knox Some stat set issues but plenty of opportunity this season. 224 126.9 -97.1
    187 179.0 -8.0 Bam Adebayo Needs to do more on the defensive side to have any real value 186 137.7 -48.3
    188 200.0 12.0 Patty Mills Will pick up a good amount of slack for DM but still a deep leaguer 161 200.0 39.0
    189 200.0 11.0 Mitchell Robinson If he can play at all then he'll stay in these B150 ranks. 182 142.6 -39.4
    190 143.3 -46.7 Dirk Nowitzki Much more valuable in 9-cat; 20 mpg will probably keep him upright 162 113.6 -48.4
    191 142.0 -49.0 J.J. Barea More of a wire pickup when other players are hurt 218 149.0 -69.0
    192 182.5 -9.5 O.G. Anunoby It's not happening for Anunoby this year 184 137.8 -46.2
    193 200.0 7.0 Terrence Ross You've seen this movie before 188 200.0 12.0
    194 137.0 -57.0 Mason Plumlee You can do better 210 200.0 -10.0
    195 200.0 5.0 Jerian Grant Grant could get serious minutes but can he do anything with them 200 149.1 -50.9
    196 176.0 -20.0 Marcus Morris Going to get squeezed in Boston 187 135.1 -51.9
    197 121.3 -75.7 Rajon Rondo Only on the radar if Lonzo gets hurt or seriously benched 222 130.5 -91.5
    198 200.0 2.0 Wayne Ellington For deeper leagues 171 145.8 -25.2
    199 155.0 -44.0 Marco Belinelli For deeper leagues 201 143.4 -57.6
    200 200.0 0.0 Reggie Bullock Even if he shoots the shit out of it again he'll struggle to gain traction 176 145.4 -30.6
    201 200.0 -1.0 Willy Hernangomez Stuck in logjam but has shown upside in the past 197 142.9 -54.1
    202 200.0 -2.0 Cody Zeller Emerging as the top reality center so far in Charlotte 181 200.0 19.0
    203 200.0 -3.0 Mike Muscala Versatile enough to be on the deep league radar 180 200.0 20.0
    204 200.0 -4.0 Derrick White We'll watch for stat set stuff but we like him here. 208 200.0 -8.0
    205 200.0 -5.0 Mikal Bridges Stuck behind logjams but has a Khris Middleton-like stat set 203 146.2 -56.8
    206 200.0 -6.0 David Nwaba Needs work on his stat set but still improving on a bad team 212 200.0 -12.0
    207 130.3 -76.7 Mohamed Bamba I don't care about the shooting, which will hinder him. It's the bloards 215 112.8 -102.2
    208 200.0 -8.0 Collin Sexton Not enough statistical juice to bet big on a big value haul. 228 133.2 -94.8
    209 200.0 -9.0 Gorgui Dieng Thibs future? I might move him higher as the Wolves drama plays out. 207 200.0 -7.0
    210 200.0 -10.0 Skal Labissiere What if the Kings don't mess it up? I know, right … 204 200.0 -4.0
    211 200.0 -11.0 Cedi Osman Real stat set problems but CLE probably wants to give him minutes 219 141.7 -77.3
    212 200.0 -12.0 Kevon Looney He needs clarity of role to really jump into the standard league scene 221 200.0 -21.0
    213 176.0 -37.0 John Henson Could see his role yanked around with arrival of Brook Lopez 229 200.0 -29.0
    214 193.5 -20.5 Ryan Anderson Contract aside, has UTR improved his quickness, will help PHO 183 138.9 -44.1
    215 200.0 -15.0 Davis Bertans Deep sleeper in San Antonio. If the bigs go down pick him up 185 200.0 15.0
    8-B150 ADP +/- Name Notes 9-B150 ADP +/-