July 21, 2021, 6:20 pm
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+270)
I’ve been on a cold streak to start the week and I was really banking on this yesterday but Mother Nature had other plans. I’ll reiterate what I said Tuesday, Vlad Jr. hits tons of dingers in general but especially at home. He’s hit 20 of his 31 homers at Sahlen Stadium and 26 against righties. The All-Star Game MVP is 5-for-7 lifetime against Garrett Richards but has yet to go yard against him. I think that changes tonight.
Juan Soto (+360)
The Nats phenom is the HOTTEST hitter in baseball since the All-Star break. He’s hit five homers in the last seven games and seven overall in the month of July with an .804 slugging percentage. Soto is 2-for-2 lifetime against Marlins starter Nick Neidert and is hitting .337 with eight long balls this season. I’m riding the hot bat of Soto this evening.
Robbie Grossman (+500)
The Tigers face Jordan Lyles (5-6, 5.20 ERA) tonight in Detroit. I feel like I’ve had at least one home prop for every outing Lyles has taken the mound this season because he loves to serve up bombs. He’s given up 21 of them this season and with how well the Tigers have been hitting lately I don’t see that changing tonight. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gives up at least two and one of the guys I’m thinking to go yard is Robbie Grossman. He’s already homered against Lyles in his career and has hit two against the Rangers with a .400 BA this year. One of the two home runs he’s hit against Texas came last night in a win so I’m expecting him to go for it again and I think we get really good value based on the matchup.
3M Open – TPC Twin Cities, Blaine Minnesota. July 22-25
*This tournament debuted in 2019 and the defending champ is Michael Thompson.
Dustin Johnson +700
Tony Finau +1400
Louis Oosthuizen +1400
Recap of The Open: Collin Morikawa beats out Spieth and Louis Oosthuizen to win The Open. Louis was in control until the opening holes on Sunday. I thought he would win and that cost me a unit. I was still profitable and won +1.85 units and my model had Morikawa ranked first.
In creating the model this week, I factored in opportunities gained (Birdie Opportunities inside 15ft of the hole). I used Strokes Gained Total, Off the Tee, and Approach (Last 8 rounds and 36 rounds). I did use Strokes Gained at TPC Twin Cities as well, 5% weight.
Top 10 in My Model:
Matthew NesmithTournament Matchup:
8:20am Cam Davis +109 v Bubba Watson-
Davis is coming off his first Tour win 2 weeks ago. He ranks seventh in my model. He ranks eighth in Strokes Gained Total in his last 36 rounds and 21st in his last 8 rounds. He ranks 17th and 5th in Strokes Gained Approach in his last 36 and 8 rounds. Watson ranks 55th in model. In the last 8 rounds, he ranks 90th in Strokes Gained Total and 99th in his last 36 rounds. He ranks 82 in the last 8 rounds in Strokes Gained Approach and 50th in the last 36 rounds.
8:20 am Knox -110 v Hubbard-
Knox ranks 7th in my model and is trending upward. He ranks 19th in Strokes Gained Total and 6th in Strokes Gained Approach in his last 8 rounds. In his last 36 rounds he ranks 42nd in Strokes Gained Total and ranks 19th in Strokes Gained Approach.
Hubbard ranks 111th in my model. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks 117th in Strokes Gained Total and 100th in Strokes Gained Approach. He ranks 48th in Strokes Gained Total and 63 in Strokes Gained Approach in his last 8 rounds.
9:15 Schwartzel -107 v Cink-
In my model, Schwartzel is ranked 18th. In his last 8 rounds he is ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Total and 13th in his last 36 rounds. He is ranked 14th in Strokes Approach in his last 8 rounds and 17th in his last 36 rounds. Cink is ranked 84th in my model and ranks 73rd in Strokes Gained Total in his last 36 rounds. In his last 8 rounds, he ranks 95ht in Strokes Gained Total. He ranks 83rd in Strokes Gained Approach in his last 8 rounds and 49th in his last 36 rounds. A clear sign he is getting worse.
The jack of all trades! Handicaps most major sports with an eye on personnel angles, deep dives on stats and lasering in on his favorite conferences and teams that have edges or fade markers! Devin is a high-volume bettor with significant expertise in college football and basketball who knows clearing that 52.4% marker is a long term proposition, and missing out on strong percentage winners is leaving money on the table.
*NOTE: Todays write-ups will be shorter than normal with a crazy day occurring.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 7:10 PM CDT
Michael Pineda(R) 3-5, 4.11 ERA vs Dylan Cease(R) 7-5, 4.15 ERA
With how hot the Sox have been, it is damn near impossible not to support them. Yesterday we had a first five inning play on them and it paid off. Tim Anderson alone could put us in the money after the fifth inning is complete in this game. Agains, the White Sox are rolling a sneaky good lineup out and I believe Michael Pineda could get roughed up within the first three innings. Look for hot hitting Abreau to continue raking and then for utility-man Adam Engel to contribute also.
Bet- 1.20 units to win 1 unit on Chicago White Sox(F5) -120
San Francisco Giants @ Los ANgeles Dodgers, 9:10 PM CDT
Logan Webb(R) 4-3, 3.54 ERA vs Julio Urias(L) 12-3, 3.78 ERA
There is no doubt that Urias has been anything but dominant this year as he has cruised to twelve wins so far this season. However, the Dodgers offense is going to be without Mookie Betts, Josh Turner, and Corey Seager. I believe that will affect this offense early on and I believe both pitchers will be able to find a nice groove early. Look for weaker contact and the defenses to be busy in the infield. Pujols, McKinstry, and Beaty are downgrades no matter how you slice it.
Bet- 1.20 units to win 1 on under the total(F5) of 4.5